Condition Oakland

Condition Oakland has moved

2007-03-25T17:53:00.000-07:00

We have finally made the move to our own dedicated domain. Please update your browser and bookmarks to our new home at ConditionOakland.com. All archives and previous posts have been transferred over and all new posts will be at our new home.

While the new site is fully operational, there will be some major design changes in the days/weeks to come, so please be patient as ConditionOakland evolves. We hope then new site and design will be easier on the eyes and make for pleasant reading. Any suggestions are welcome.

Thanks for reading and supporting ConditionOaklan d throughout the years. Please continue to support us over at the new site.

A's opening day roster beginning to take shape

2007-03-20T12:31:00.001-07:00

It was just 2 weeks ago that I made a fairly bold prediction that Ryan Goleski wasn't going anywhere over at A Minor Consideration. Particularly considering the trouble the A's went through acquiring Goleski in the rule 5 draft and the fact that they will be without Kotsay for several months.

Well, it appears the A's brass may have other plans and Ryan Goleski may not be part of their future, which would make him a $100k gamble that didn't work out:

He's not likely to play there often, but if Perez is an emergency option in the outfield, it could affect the breakdown of the roster. Perhaps the A's could go without a utility player, which is something they've considered adding with center fielder Mark Kotsay out of action for two months or more.

"A big part of our success this year will be versatility,'' manager Bob Geren said.
Perez, who hit .102 last year in limited use, is 10-for-22 with four doubles and eight runs over his past 10 games.
"Seeing Antonio right now, he looks like the guy we traded for,'' special assistant to the general manager Billy Owens said.
Perez, who handled two groundball singles and one flyball Sunday, has played in the outfield before -- one whole inning while with the Dodgers in 2005.
"He can fill in in an emergency,'' said outfield coach Tye Waller, who has been working with Perez. "He's a good athlete, he runs well, he's got good instincts.''

It also helps, as mentioned above, when you have a hot bat in Spring Training (0.341 BA / 0.440 OBP / 0.537 SLG - 7 BB to 10 SO), whereas Goleski decidedly does not (0.162 BA / 0.205 OBP / 0.189 SLG - 37 AB, only 2 BB to 13 SO). I've always said Spring Training stats don't count for too much (look at Kendall and Chavez in Spring Training) but it's obvious that Goleski's weak performance at the plate is lowering his chances of sticking with the A's.

Geren's comment about versatility being a big part of the A's success this year is important. It ties in nicely with this article from Sports Illustrated yesterday about the same subject:

Is there any team in baseball that adapts quite like the A's? They are the Sultans of Scramble, the Masters of Making Do. We're still two weeks away from the 2007 regular season and Oakland -- the reigning American League West champ, a playoff participant in five of the past seven years, going for a ninth straight winning season -- already is in full improv mode. It's as if the A's plan to wing it. Or at least plan on having to wing it.

If you want to praise Billy Beane, the team's outside-the-box general manager, for the A's ability to adapt, that's probably a good place to start. He has built a team of moveable and manageable parts, a roster stacked with versatile and largely selfless players. That's helped a lot these past couple of years and, already, it looks like it will be coming in handy again this one.
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Scutaro and, especially, Swisher have demonstrated just how important a willing, versatile player can be. Decent infield utility players like Scutaro who can play for long stretches of time are hard to come by. And a guy who can play both first and the outfield like Swisher -- often flipping back and forth in the same week or the same game -- is even harder to find.

"I talk to them all about the team-first type of play," says new manager Bob Geren, who also points out his bendable pitching staff (Joe Kennedy can be anything from a lefty setup man to a starter) and said he's talked to young infielder Antonio Perez about playing outfield. "We don't have selfish players in this organization."

Emphasis mine. The message is clear: we value versatility and if you want to play for us and you want increased playing time, then be prepared to juggle more than one position. That's why there's been talk of Melhuse spending some time at 3B occasionally. That's why we'll once again see Swisher bouncing back and forth between the OF and 1B. Marco Scutaro will once again reprise his role as super-sub for the infield and it's telling that Perez, whom many considered a disaster at the plate last year, is being asked to fill in for the OF.

From the looks of things, Perez will be on the opening day roster with Goleski the odd-man out and being sent back to Cleveland. That means a starting outfield of Stewart, Bradley, and Swisher, with Kielty most likely getting significant playing time vs LHP and Perez as an emergency back up. Here's how things are looking so far:

Dan Haren - SP
Rich Harden - SP
Esteban Loaiza - SP
Joe Blanton - SP
??? - SP (up in the air thanks to Kennedy's poor performance - could be Kennedy, Halsey, or even Windsor)

Huston Street - RP
Justin Duchscherer - RP
Kiko Calero - RP
Chad Gaudin - RP
Alan Embree - RP
Jay Witasick - RP
??? - RP (depends on what happens with the fifth starter position)

Shannon Stewart - OF
Milton Bradley - OF
Nick Swisher - OF
Bobby Kielty - OF

Dan Johnson or Erubiel Durazo - 1B/DH
Mike Piazza - DH
Mark Ellis - 2B
Bobby Crosby - SS
Eric Chavez - 3B
Marco Scutaro - IF
Antonio Perez - IF/OF

Jason Kendall - C
Adam Melhuse - C/3B

Anything can happen between now and Opening Day, but as the A's continue to make moves in Spring Training the picture is becoming clearer.

Does Joe Kennedy deserve to be the fifth starter?

2007-03-18T22:43:00.000-07:00

Update: Here's more on the subject from Susan Slusser and Mychael Urban. Key quote from Urban:

Shouldn't the A's be more concerned than they seem to be about Joe Kennedy's awful spring? And who would get the call if they dumped him from the rotation?
-- Samuel T., Pleasanton, Calif.
I think they are, whether they say it or not, and Kennedy knows it. He's got three starts left this spring, and if he doesn't turn things around fairly dramatically, he's going to have an awfully short leash come the regular season.

Going into Spring Training it was assumed that Joe Kennedy was a lock for the A's fifth starter. Thanks to a long string of bad outings in Spring Training, however, there could be some cracks in the wall:

The fifth-starter role is Joe Kennedy's to lose, the A's keep saying, and if that's really the case, his job security is getting shakier and shakier.
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Kennedy has a 20.48 ERA and opponents are batting .543 against him. Another candidate, lefty Brad Halsey is 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA, while Triple-A Sacramento right-hander Jason Windsor has a 10.38 ERA. Fellow minor-leaguer Shane Komine has the best ERA of the bunch, at 5.14.
It's hard to imagine, barring a trade, that Kennedy won't claim the fifth job. As outfielder Nick Swisher stage-whispered to a bunch of reporters clustered around Kennedy, "It's spring training."

True. It is Spring Training, and I try not to put much stock in Spring Training numbers, but in 9.2 IP he has given up 31 hits, 22 earned runs, walked 6, and has a WHIP of 3.83. Nobody else, and I mean nobody, has worse Spring Training numbers than Kennedy's. What's really scary is that now that people are openly questioning whether he truly deserves a slot in the rotation it could get into his head and affect his performance even more. Or, hopefully, it will motivate him to really buckle down and get his act together and pitch his butt off.

The good news is that if Kennedy struggles during the season, the A's have plenty of backup who should pitch just as well if not better. Halsey could easily step into the same role as last season, as a fill-in starter. Both Komine and Windsor are on the 40-man roster and could be called up for a stretch, if need be.

Last season our 5th starters (Halsey and Saarloos) combined for 12 wins, and had almost identical WHIPs (1.63 and 1.66). Even their ERAs were eerily similar (4.75 and 4.67). And they weren't really all that much worse than 4th starter Esteban Loaizia, he of the 4.89 ERA which would have been upwards of 6.00 if it weren't for an incredible August.

So with a (hopefully) healthy Harden, a solid Haren, and a steady Blanton who should improve on last year's numbers, there isn't really a whole lot of pressure on the 5th starter, which makes it all the more imperative that Kennedy not blow this chance, particularly considering this is his walk year.

The A's acquired reliever Alan Embree with the idea that Kennedy would shift from the bullpen to the rotation. But he has yet to distance himself from fellow lefty Brad Halsey, surrendering 21 hits and 13 earned runs in three starts (7 innings).
"As long as guys are getting sharper and crisper with their breaking balls, that's all I'm looking for," Geren said. "I'm not looking for spring training stats. As long as whoever needs to be ready for that fifth start, (what's important is) we feel like he's ready."

Emphasis mine. Not exactly a vote of confidence from the skipper.

Durazo making a case for 1B

2007-03-12T23:20:00.000-07:00

Durazo had a breakout season in 2004 and was looking forward to another great year in 2005 before a freak arm injury while preparing to play 1B sidelined him for the rest of the season. He was let go and spent 2006 bouncing around the Minor Leagues for 3 different teams. The A's were wise (and lucky) to pick him up on a minor league contract for 2007 during the off-season, where he absolutely murdered the ball in the Mexican Winter League.

It's doubtful the A's will be carrying Durazo on the 25-man roster come opening day, particularly since, well, they did sign him to a Minor League contract, but the man is certainly making things tough for the A's:

Erubiel Durazo, who is trying to make the team as a non-roster invitee, provided the most impressive swing of the day in a game against the Mariners. He hit the first pitch he saw from left-hander George Sherrill over the right-center-field fence, the deepest part of the stadium, for a three-run home run.
What makes the drive even more impressive is the fact that Sherrill did not allow a home run in 72 appearances for the Mariners last year and left-handers hit .143 against him.
"He's playing like a big-league player," Geren said. "He's the most diligent of anybody in getting his work in this spring. It's going to be tough, and I hope we have a real tough call."

So far, Durazo is certainly making it a tough call. It will be interesting to see how things work out for the big guy and I'll certainly be watching no matter where he ends up.

Javier Herrera optioned to AAA Sacramento and other news

2007-03-12T23:15:00.000-07:00

I have a post up over at A Minor Consideration with a quick run down of the players from Spring Training who have been optioned to AAA Sacramento or Minor League Camp. Herrera has been optioned to Sacramento after spending the bulk of last season in low-A Kane County. From my post:

Touted as one of the A’s top OF prospects since he joined the A’s, I think it’s a combination of high expectations and the fact that the A’s are going to need all the OF talent they can get after this season. Bradley is in his walk year and his performance will most likely price him out of the A’s budget. Kotsay has a bad back, regardless of how successful the surgery is, and 2008 will be his last year with the A’s. Swisher is fine in either RF or LF, but I have a feeling he’ll be spending more time at 1B in seasons to come. Kielty will most likely be gone in 2008 as well, as there is only so much the A’s should be paying for a part-time lefty masher. And Stewart is most likely hoping he can win comeback player of the year which means he’ll go for the heaviest bidder in the offseason. Conclusion: the A’s are going to need all the OF help they can get in the near future.

Read the whole thing.

A's beat SF 5-3

2007-03-09T18:57:00.000-08:00

Harden is looking downright dominant so far this Spring. Today he pitched 3 strong innings, giving up 3 hits, no walks, and striking out 4 with zero runs earned. So far he has not allowed an earned run and has struck out 9.

Another hot hand for the A's? Milton Bradley: 1 double, 2 triples, 3 BB to 1 K, and a line of 0.571 / 0.647 / 0.929. Now it's only been 14 AB and as I have said so many times before, I don't put much stock into Spring Training stats, but it's nice to see Bradley keep up the hot hitting he displayed in the playoffs.

Glad to see Piazza bouncing back so quickly from being hit in the arm earlier this week. He was 2 for 3 with a double.

Bad news (depending on how you look at it): Loaiza left the game with tightness in his shoulder and said he didn't feel good out there. If serious, someone else on the A's roster would need to step in. Everyone knows how I feel about Loaiza, where I gave him an "F" in my season review:

Tossing your fastball in the low 80's when you normally hit the low-mid 90's enroute to an ERA of 8.35 with ZERO wins in April does not endear you to the fans as a new player. No one forgot his dismal performance either, even when he pitched an outstanding August amidst a bunch of sub-standard or downright terrible months:
April: 8.35 ERA
June: 4.91 ERA
July: 7.26 ERA
Aug: 1.48 ERA
Sept: 5.11 ERA

Take out that August, which was CLEARLY an anomaly, and you have a 2006 ERA above 6.00.

Loaiza's entire career is a bunch of sub-par performances with the occasional diamond in the rough - he has had only 2 full seasons with an ERA under 4.00 and his career WHIP is 1.42. I don't know what kind of numbers the A's were looking at when they decided to sign Loaiza, because everything I saw said this was a disaster in the making.

So if Loaiza doesn't start opening day, I won't lose any sleep over it. And looking at his numbers just about anyone can fill in for him and not have to worry about meeting any high expectations - just give us 5-6 innings of batting practice and you'll be just fine.

How will Kotsay's absence affect the A's?

2007-03-08T19:43:00.000-08:00

By now everyone is aware that Kotsay, after checking with 3 different doctors, has elected to have back surgery to hopefully fix his ailing back once and for all:

Kotsay, who has had a chronic lower-back problem since 2003, said the arthroscopic surgery will be performed today by Dr. Robert Watkins in Los Angeles.
"We have a solution," Kotsay said in a phone interview Wednesday night, adding he'll be out of action eight to 12 weeks. He wouldn't be cleared to begin light rehabilitation until after a three- to four-week healing process.

This means, best-case-scenario, we can expect Kotsay to return to action sometime in June. The question is: how is this going to affect the A's?

While it certainly isn't good news for the A's, on the bright side it opens things up for some players who were probably wondering about their standing with the team. Ryan Goleski, acquired through the rule 5 draft, just became a likely certainty to make the 25-man roster, which I discussed over at A Minor Consideration. Dan Johnson can probably relax a bit knowing that Swisher will spend the bulk of his time in the OF now and not have to worry about the A's demoting or trading him (neither of which, in my opinion, he would deserve). Geren won't have to worry, at least for the near future, about giving enough playing time to Shannon Stewart and Bobby Kielty.

With Kotsay (0.988 FPCT / 2.66 RF / 0.877 ZR) out, Milton Bradley will move to CF (0.986 FPCT / 2.70 RF / 0.891 ZR) with Swisher in right and Stewart in left. As long as Bradley's health holds up, CF defense should be fine. Bradley's back up for CF, should an injury befall him, will be Swisher (0.981 FPCT / 1.77 RF / 0.862 ZR - right field), who would be a defensive downgrade from both Bradley and Kotsay.

One other area Kotsay could be missed is leadership. He is widely accepted as one of the clubhouse leaders, if not THE leader, and sometimes consults with Beane & Co. The jury's still out on how his absence will affect team chemistry but luckily they still have guys like Kendall, Piazza, and Chavez who are also leaders in their own right.

Dan Meyer

2007-03-06T07:50:00.000-08:00

Over at A Minor Consideration I have a post up discussing the brief history of prospect Dan Meyer (who? oh yeah, that third guy we got from the Tim Hudson trade, what happened to him?), questioning whether he is still a prospect or a bust. You be the judge.

A Minor Consideration

2007-03-04T22:48:00.000-08:00

Just a quick note to let everyone know that "A Minor Consideration" - the Oakland A's minor league site that Ryan Armbrust and I are co-authoring - is finally up and running. You can access it here or via the Links in the sidebar. As mentioned before, we'll be covering all the A's minor league affiliates and hope to bring some unique perspective on the A's farm system. So please click on over frequently and enjoy!

New A's minor league site coming soon

2007-02-22T20:59:00.000-08:00

As already mentioned by Ryan Armbrust over at The Pastime, he and I are partnering on a new A's minor league site over at MVN. We'll be covering all the A's minor league affiliates throughout the minor league season. We've got a lot of ideas for the site and will let you know once it's up and running, which should be soon.

And be patient here at Condition Oakland, soon I'll have (I hope) a much better looking site at its own domain. It's just a matter of (again, I hope) a few weeks before it becomes a reality.

Spring Training is Here!

2007-02-22T20:04:00.000-08:00

Sorry for the lack of posts. Several reasons:

1. I can't stand the new Blogger.

2. Been super busy at work.

3. Did I mention I dislike the new Blogger?

4. I am in the middle of transitioning my blog to its own domain. This will accomplish several objectives: getting away from Blogger (did I mention I don't like the new Blogger?), allow me more control over the site's layout and improve the design, and allow me to introduce (hopefully) more features. Originally I stopped posting because I thought the change would be imminent, but circumstances have delayed me until sometime in March, so I figured I better go back to posting here until everything is transitioned.

Anyways, anything I post about Spring Training may be old news to some of you, but let's go 'round the blogosphere:

Blez has an excellent interview with the new A's manager, Bob Geren. He certainly seems more talkative than Macha and at this time does not appear to be a robotic construct - he actually expresses emotion and independent thought! Part I. Part II. Part III. He also has a nice Q & A with A's prospect Brad Ziegler. Here's an excerpt:

At the time I was with the Phillies, there were major differences in the philosophies. The Phillies seemed to draft more high-risk, high-reward guys...guys that threw hard but needed a lot of refinement to get to the upper levels. The A's tended to draft more polished pitchers who weren't necessarily projected to be future aces but were much closer to helping out a big league ballclub.

I, personally, think that translates into better minor league teams - and, thus, better player morale. The Phillies short-season team in Batavia, NY, hasn't had a winning record since 2000. In 2003, when I was there (I pitched 6 innings of relief that summer), we were 30-45. Conversely, every team I've been on with the A's has made the playoffs (excluding my one-month stint in Sacramento last year - and that team finished 12 games over .500).

Elephants in Oakland breaks down the bullpen. I like his take on The Duke, my personal favorite:

Many, FINALLY, are asking the question why Duchscherer shouldn't get the ball every 5th day as a starter. Previously the A's were about exposing him to hitters a 3rd time through the batting order because his "stuff" didn't lend itself to the starter's role. When your breaking ball, change-up, fastball, make-up, pickoff move, defense and hair is better than Barry Zito all that is left to judge is what arm they fling the ball at the plate. The A's need to lock-up Duchscherer long term and they need to do it now.

Susan Slusser reports on what's really on everyone's mind at Spring Training over at The Drumbeat: How do they look and how much do they weigh?

Street has been particularly proud of his weight gain as he pushed 200 pounds. He checks daily and noted a one-pound increase one morning. At a reporters' behest, he took off his shoes, and was precisely at 200.

Joe Blanton, whose weight always seems to be a focal point, told Street that the scale in the A's weight room is actually heavy by 7 pounds, because he said he was 247 at the doctor's office and 254 at the A's complex. He and Street decided to go whichever weight suited them best, so Blanton is sticking with 247 and Street with 200. Or 201 with his shoes on.

And over at The Pastime, my soon to be writing partner (more on that in my next post) has a post on Guys to Root For: Marcus McBeth

After reading Mychael Urban’s interview with Marcus McBeth, the first selection in the “GTRF” category was easy. McBeth, as many Oakland fans already know, was an outfielder selected in the famous 2002 “Moneyball” draft. After three years in the system carrying subpar offensive numbers, McBeth was on his way out of baseball. He approached his pitching coach, and asked if he could work his way towards converting to being a pitcher. McBeth worked his butt off to make the move to the mound, and he’s been far more successful on the rubber than he was at the plate.

McBeth, out of nowhere, developed what could accurately be described as the best changeup in the Oakland system.

Also be sure to click on Mychael Urban's interview of Marcus McBeth.

Ken at Catfish Stew can't wait to get his season tickets, being sent via....Canada? Ryan (aka The Pastime, who is a writing fool - is there anywhere you don't write? Don't get me wrong, it's all good, keep it up, just wish I could manage my time like that - I'm jealous) Armbrust also beats me to a post I was going to do speculating about which players will make the 25-man roster out of Spring Training.

So who will be participating in this high-stakes game of musical chairs? To discover that, let's work backwards. Who's a lock to make the 25-man roster? I'll assume that the A's decide to carry 12 pitchers out of Spring Training, for the sake of argument.

- - -

Pitching Locks (9 out of 12):

Rich Harden
Dan Haren
Joe Blanton
Esteban Loaiza
Joe Kennedy
Huston Street
Justin Duchscherer
Kiko Calero
Alan Embree

Fielding Locks (9 out of 13):

Jason Kendall
Mike Piazza
Eric Chavez
Bobby Crosby
Mark Ellis
Nick Swisher
Milton Bradley
Mark Kotsay
Shannon Stewart

- - -
That leaves us with three pitching slots, and four openings in the field.

I am with Ryan on Gaudin making the bullpen, and Halsey has a good chance as well, although he could get traded. Still have no idea on the third spot, it seems odd to put Jay Marshall, who has never pitched above High A.

I'm also with Ryan on Dan Johnson making the team, a favorite of mine, and the A's front office is high on Johnson, despite a rough 2006. Scutaro definitely makes the team, his value as an infield substitute is simply too high to ignore. I think Kielty will be traded - he is just too pricey for the A's as a part time lefty-masher, the A's have a much cheaper option in Ryan Goleski. And I also agree with Ryan that Perez will make the roster, although he will most likely spend most of his time riding pine or as the occasional pinch runner.

A's get Stewart

2007-02-08T08:13:00.000-08:00

The A's finally got a decent right handed bat to replace Jay Payton in the outfield: Shannon Stewart.

Stewart has dealt with plantar fasciitis problems in both feet over the past
three years. The injury limited him to 92 games in 2004. The A's were among a
number of teams that were on hand to watch the injury-prone Stewart work out in
Miami last week.

The right-handed hitting Stewart would join an outfield
that now consists of starters Nick Swisher, Mark Kotsay and Milton Bradley.
Stewart and Bobby Kielty would give the A's two solid outfield backups.

It's a pretty simplistic assumption that Stewart will be Payton's replacement, but really, what else could he be? He is an injury prone player who would most likely benefit from limited playing time as opposed to being a starter. Like Payton, he can play all 3 OF positions competently although the bulk of his time has been spent in LF, where I assume he will most likely split his time with Kielty, barring simultaneous injuries to both Kotsay and Bradley. The injury risk aside, I don't think the A's could have gone out and found someone more like Payton if they tried. Look at the offensive comparison:

3 Years (2004-2006) : Breakdown = BA / OBP / SLG / HR / 2B / BB / K

Shannon Stewart:
0.287 / 0.347 / 0.405 / 0.752 / 23 / 49 / 95 / 136

Jay Payton:
0.276 / 0.320 / 0.409 / 0.729 / 36 / 65 / 89 / 155

The edge goes to Stewart in BA and OBP as he had fewer K and more BB with roughly 300 fewer at bats. Regardless, both are good contact hitters who may not walk a lot but also don't strike out too often. However, one area will Stewart will be a clear advantage is with runners in scoring position:

Stewart - 0.343 / 0.418 / 0.517
Payton - 0.288 / 0.358 / 0.424

Let's look at their defense:

Career : Breakdown = FPCT / RF / ZR

Shannon Stewart:
As LF - 0.984 / 2.05 / 0.874
As CF - 0.978 / 2.46 / 0.877
As RF - 0.971 / 2.56 / 0.816

Jay Payton:
As LF - 0.992 / 2.18 / 0.846
As CF - 0.986 / 2.66 / 0.887
As RF - 0.980 / 2.31 / 0.884

Here Payton has the edge, although Stewart has a better ZR in LF, which is where I assume he will play most of the time.

In fact, while neither player may enjoy it too much, a platoon in LF of Kielty/Stewart would be ideal, and I wonder if Beane & Co. already had this in mind when looking at Stewart, knowing he could be limited by injury. Here are the splits for Kielty/Stewart below:

3 Years (2004-2006) : Breakdown - BA / OBP / SLG / HR / 2B / BB / K

Kielty vs LHP:
0.303 / 0.367 / 0.519 / 17 / 30 / 38 / 54

Stewart vs RHP:
0.299 / 0.350 / 0.424 / 18 / 39 / 61 / 88

As has been mentioned time and time again, Kielty mashes LHP. While Stewart doesn't show a lot of power against RHP, he does show great contact and a decent OBP and certainly has more power against RHP (0.424 SLG) than against LHP (only 0.355 SLG). Perhaps Beane & Co. had all of this in mind when they got Stewart: Kielty should be in the lineup every single day against LHP and Stewart should be thrown in there against RHP.

Overall, I think it's a nice addition and gives the A's plenty of depth in the OF, which is one of the reasons they were able to succeed last season. Not having to play everyday should help keep Stewart off the DL and he can spell Kotsay or Bradley if they go down with injuries. It also makes things easier to juggle 1B/DH roles should Geren want to move Swisher into those spots occasionally.

The Pastime: Round Table parts IV, V, and VI

2007-02-06T07:32:00.000-08:00

It's been pretty quiet here at Condition Oakland, and the blame completely lies with Sid Meier and his latest incarnation of the famed Civilization franchise, Civilization IV. I am hopelessly addicted, much as I was when Civilization II came out years ago (I hated Civ III). Anyways, I am trying to stay away from the game this week, hiding the DVD deep away in a cluttered drawer and trying to make myself forget where it is so I can keep up with life in general as well as blogging.

Anyways, The Pastime has been putting up further results of his A's offseason Round Table, of which Condition Oakland was a participant, covering a number of questions for A's fans everywhere.

Part IV can be found here and covers the question: Can Mike Piazza adjust to the differences of being a DH facing American League pitchers?

My reply was: hopefully. Blez was also hopefuly with a healthy amount of caution, most of the other participants seemed satisfied that Piazza could do it.

Part V can be found here and covers the question: Is Oakland's defense as good as most people assume, or is it overrated?

I think it's easily as good as most people assume and most of the participants agree on this point.

Part VI can be found here and covers the question: Are we at the end of the steroids era, or just the dawn of the HGH era in baseball?

I was surprised that some participants simply didn't care too much about the issue, a lot of varied opinions on this one.

Thanks again to Ryan @ The Pastime for including Condition Oakland in his roundtable discussion - we'd love to participate in something like this again.

Kirk Saarloos analysis at The Hardball Times

2007-01-29T18:49:00.000-08:00

Wow. Sal Baxamusa over at The Hardball Times is really down on Saarloos:

Of course, pitchers can succeed without striking out every fourth batter. Some guys are as stingy with the walks as they are with the swings and misses. Saarloos is not one of those guys. But his walk rate is awful, both as ratio—he has walked more men than he has struck out over the last two years—and as absolute—had he qualified, he would have ranked third from bottom in BB/G.

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He's quite hittable (in the sense that it is easy to make contact), so there's no need to attack the first pitch even if it is a strike. This corresponds to my memory of watching him pitch for my favorite team, the Oakland A's. It was extremely frustrating as a fan to watch him get ahead in the count on called strikes only to watch him nibble in an attempt to get the batter to pound his sinker into the ground. Without a way to put away hitters, the nibbling would often lead to walks, rarely lead to strikeouts, and occasionally lead to hits.

Interview with Billy Beane

2007-01-29T18:28:00.000-08:00

I wish I had the access to the A's front office like Blez does, but since I don't I'll simply have to enjoy the great interviews he does with Billy Beane and others. In this latest interview, Blez and Beane discuss the A's off-season moves.

Beane more or less skirts around the question of Ken Macha's hiring, despite pushing by Blez. The most interesting comments by Beane were on the hiring of new hitting coach Ty Van Burkleo:

We kept hearing his (Van Burkleo's) name come up from people who didn't know each other. As we were putting together a list of potential hitting instructors, we put his name on the list because we'd heard his name in several different places who all rave about this guy. So I knew the first indication that we'd hit on something when I called Assistant GM Ken Forsch and I said, "Ken, I'd like to ask for permission to speak to Ty Van Burkleo for our major league hitting job." He just groaned like I was afraid you were going to say that. To me that was a validation of what their own organization thought about him and the last time that someone had that reaction when I called to ask about another person is when John Hart had that reaction when I called about Paul DePodesta. His reaction and John's and the fact that Paul ended up being as great as he was, I figured we hit on the right guy.

The Pastime: Round Table parts II and III

2007-01-29T18:14:00.000-08:00

Ryan Armbrust of the excellent The Pastime has parts II and III of his Round Table up, of which Condition Oakland was invited to participate.

Part II discusses the question "Bobby Crosby - Is he an injury-prone bust, or can he rebound to approach the Rookie of the Year Expectations? "

While no one seems to be too excited about Bobby Crosby, opinions differ on his future.

Part III discussed the question "How much will this team miss Barry Zito, in terms of pitching and/or leadership."

It's pretty clear that everyone feels a healthy Harden will actually be an upgrade over Zito.

Be sure to check out the answers, lots of interesting commentary from A's fans in the blogosphere.

Another way to look at pitching

2007-01-25T22:35:00.000-08:00

I can't believe I missed this earlier at The Hardball Times, but J.P. McIntyre has broken down the starting rotations of all the teams, separated by league, in terms of their starting rotation's Net Win Share Value . For those of you who don't know what Net Win Share Value is:

Let's look at how teams did in 2006 in terms of payroll efficiency with their starters. I am using Net Win Shares Value, created by Dave Studeman. To paraphrase Dave's definition, Net Win Shares Value essentially estimates the "expected" production from a player based on how he was signed (as a free agent, arbitration-eligible or not eligible for arbitration) and how much he was paid, then compares that to how he actually did. The difference is multiplied by the average amount teams paid for each Win Share Above Bench last year. If the number is positive, the player was a relatively good deal for the team; if not, not.

Not surprisingly, number 1 on the list in the AL is the Detroit Tigers, with a $24.9 million Net Win Share Value based on their starting pitchers. As McIntyre explains:

The Detroit Tigers had the most cost-efficient rotation by a considerable margin because not only did their starters pitch well, but most were signed to inexpensive contracts.
             Net WS Value      GS
Verlander    8,003,000         30
Robertson    6,281,000         32
Bonderman    4,636,000         34
Rogers       3,282,000         33
Miner        1,378,000         16
Ledezma      1,362,000          7
Maroth        -145,000          9

But the team that came in second in the AL? You guessed it, our
beloved A's with a $16.9 million Net Win Share Value.

The White Sox had no starter who truly shined, even though management was
writing some large checks. A more efficient team was the Oakland A's:

             Net WS Value      GS
Haren        7,062,000         34
Blanton      4,332,000         31
Saarloos     2,096,000         16
Zito         1,087,000         34
Harden       1,101,000          9
Loaiza         988,000         26
Windsor       -585,000          3
Because Harden was not receiving a large salary, his injury did not hurt the A's financially, unlike Mark Mulder of St. Louis, who had a -$9.9 million Net WS Value. Oakland general manager Billy Beane's market philosophy allows him to get a high yield on the money the A's pay their starters.

I think this is an interesting way to look at starting rotations in terms of the value their pitchers bring to the team. Thanks to the clever minds at THT for doing this nice analysis.

Kielty and A's finally come to agreement.

2007-01-25T22:07:00.000-08:00

The A's and Kielty have finally agreed on a number: $2.1 million.

Kielty will likely be primarily a backup outfielder again for the A's, with Nick Swisher slated to start in left field, Mark Kotsay in center and Milton Bradley in right. Kielty, who is strongest against left-handed pitchers, batted .270 with eight home runs and 36 RBIs in 81 games for AL West champion Oakland last season.

His contract includes up to $100,000 in performance bonuses — $25,000 each for 300, 350, 400 and 450 plate appearances. His batting average last year was the second highest of his career after he hit .291 in 2002.

Kielty will be in the lineup primarily against LHP, as he absolutely clobbers LHP:

3 year numbers (2004-2006), via ESPN
vs LHP: 0.303 BA / 0.367 OBP / 0.519 SLG / 0.886 OPS
vs RHP: 0.214 BA / 0.314 OBP / 0.316 SLG / 0.630 OPS

I said it before and I'll say it again, Kielty should be in the lineup every time the A's face a lefty, I don't care if he thinks he can or should hit against righties. If Geren trots him out in the lineup too often against righties then he should keep an eye on the "help wanted" section of the newspaper.

The Pastime: Round Table Part I

2007-01-25T21:52:00.000-08:00

The Pastime has put together a round table of sorts to discuss some questions about the A's as we get ready for the 2007 season. He was gracious enough to invite Condition Oakland to participate and I am honored to be considered among such a fine group of A's fans and bloggers. The five questions we were asked to discuss are as follow s:

- In your opinion, what is the is the key factor that the A’s season will hinge on in 2007?

- Bobby Crosby - Is he an injury-prone bust, or can he rebound to approach the Rookie of the Year expectations?

- How much will this team miss Barry Zito, in terms of pitching and/or leadership?

- Can Mike Piazza adjust to the differences of being a DH facing American League pitchers?

- Is Oakland’s defense as good as most people assume, or is it overrated?

- Are we at the end of the steroids era, or just the dawn of the HGH era in baseball?

Today he posted Part One of his round table, where you can find my humble answer amongst the others. From reading everyone's answers, it seems the common consensus is health, primarily Rich Harden's, and pitching.

I want to thank The Pastime for including me in his project, keep checking out his site for further updates to the Round Table discussion.

Saarloos traded to the Reds for prospect and player to be named later

2007-01-23T12:50:00.000-08:00

Hat Tip to Athletics Nation diarist oak1:

MLB radio reported that Kirk Saarloos has beentraded to the Reds for minor
league reliefpitcher David Shafer and a player to be namedlater. Saarloos is
making an appearance onMLB radio later on today. Shafer is a minorleague AA
pitcher with a 2.60 ERA and 26 saves.

Some notes on Shafer from the comments in the same diary:

Shafer, 25, was 1-2 with a 2.36 ERA (13er in 49.2ip) with 26 saves in 44
appearances for Double-A Chattanooga last season. He struck out 52 batters in
his 49.2 innings of work, issued just 16 walks, allowed just two home runs and
limited hitters to a .204 batting average. His 26 saves were tied for second in
the Southern League. Over the past two seasons, he has limited hitters to a .207
average (77-207). Originally selected in the 32nd round of the 2001 First-Year
Player Draft, Shafer has posted a 14-16 record and a 2.59 ERA (71er in 246.1ip)
to go along with 63 saves in 169 minor league appearances, including seven
career starts. He has struck out 269 batters in his 246.1 innings of work while
walking 74 batters and limiting opponents to a .219 (200-915) batting average. A
native of Flagstaff, Ariz., Shafer attended Central Arizona Community College.
He will be placed on Oakland's 40-man roster.

Here's his stats, etc from The Baseball Cube. I like his WHIP, K/9, and K totals.

It will be interesting to see who the player-to-be-named-later is. I was not too surprised, but a little sad, to see Kirk Saarloos go. While he certainly wasn't an ace, he was extremely versatile, filling in rotation spots and a multitude of bullpen duties with little griping or whining and decent performance. I definitely think he deserves a rotation spot on somebody's team and hope the Reds give him that chance. I think eventually he'll develop into a pitcher somewhere between Saarloos v.2005 and Saarloos v.2006, which isn't too shabby.

Update: The Pastime has these comments:

I’d guess Shafer will play in Sacramento most of this year, get a September
call-up, and then try to make the team as a set-up man out of Spring Training in
2008.

Further notes on the proposed Fremont ballpark

2007-01-17T20:03:00.000-08:00

Via new A's ballpark. Excerpt:

Bo Magnussen of Magnussen Lexus inquired about the impact to the Fremont Auto Mall nearby. He had contacted someone at Coliseum Lexus in Oakland to see how much sporting events impacted their dealership. The traffic generated on event days was in fact detrimental, so Magnussen pleaded with the A's and the city to figure out a way to mitigate that impact on weekends. The obvious way at first would be to have Saturday games at 7 p.m. instead of 1 p.m.

Read the whole thing, lots of good stuff, as usual.

The Drumbeat: Live blogging the Fremont City Council meeting tonight

2007-01-16T19:58:00.000-08:00

You can read the whole thing here. Excerpts:

5:49 p.m. Mayor Bob Wasserman said the question he was asked the most is who would pay for police services at the ballpark. Wolff said the A's would pay for police and ambulance services, as they do now at the Coliseum. He said two of the three Coliseum tenants pay for these now, and Wasserman responded "Guess which one doesn't?" to laughter.

------------------------------------------------------------------

6:12 p.m.:.........Wasserman asked about the team name, and Wolff responded "Whatever it is, it will be 'AT Fremont', and not 'OF Fremont.' "

The Pastime: 2007 Pitching Projections

2007-01-16T19:47:00.000-08:00

And just like that, The Pastime has just posted his 2007 Pitching Projections based again on combining the projections from 4 systems (PECOTA, ZiPS, CHONE, Bill James).

I was surprised to see that no one is very high on Chad Gaudin, who came out of nowhere to pitch solidly all season long as one of the A's best relievers. I'm also hoping Joe Blanton can pitch better than projected and Rich Harden can do better than 131 innings. Loaiza is surprisingly projected to have a great year (compared to last year's dismal numbers) and Huston Street projects to have an awesome season.

Head on over to The Pastime for the complete list.

UPDATED: Even better, he has now included weighted versions of the same lists, weighing them in accordance with how well each projection system performed in 2006.
Weighted Batters
Weighted Pitchers

The Pastime: 2007 Offensive Projections

2007-01-16T08:06:00.000-08:00

The Pastime has put together a great piece of work that must have taken considerable time and effort: combining 4 different projection systems (PECOTA, ZiPS, CHONE, Bill James) into one unified projection of the A's offense for 2007. Because, as he puts it, "I figure it’s better to have four experts reach a compromised consensus on how something will turn out, than to rely on just one or another." Dude, you have outdone yourself and you are spoiling A's fans - you know come 2008 I will be looking for the same thing from you again.

I haven't had time to look over the data he used and how he analyzed it to come up with his projections, but you can see the results by clicking on over to his website here. He also cross-posted his link in a diary at Athletics Nation, which you can find here. Like him, I have always been a Dan Johnson fan and was also surprised to see how high he projects. I like the addition of Mike Piazza but was never too high on him, but if he can hit 16 2B and 15 HR in roughly 300 AB then I will be more than happy. Most of the players projections are not too surprising, although I am personally a little higher on some than others.

Anyways, this is an invaluable service, be sure to head on over to The Pastime, take a look, and thank him for all his work. Can't wait to see the pitcher projections.

Erstad to the A's? UPDATE: Not happening

2007-01-15T21:18:00.000-08:00

UPDATE: As per Ken Rosenthal at FOX Sports, it ain't happening.

Ok, somewhat old news, but once again I was out of town last week and had no access to a computer or the internet. (Being an internet junkie that was not an easy thing to cope with). Anyways, the big news recently is that Darin Erstad of the Angels has been offered a one year contract with the A's.

While some A's fans are skeptical of this move and some are downright hateful, I think it's a smart move on the A's part, provided the contract is relatively cheap, as it will only add to the A's depth. With the rash of injuries the A's experienced last season, both at the major AND minor league levels, depth is needed and is one of the reasons the A's had yet another successful year and made the playoffs in 2006. While not a fun problem to deal with, having too many players to fill a limited number of positions is better when injuries come rolling around. Hopefully the A's won't have to deal with the injury bug like they did in 2006 and can keep their key players in the field, but should anyone go down they should have plenty of more than adequate backups to fill in the gaps:

CF - Mark Kotsay, Milton Bradley, Darin Erstad
LF - Nick Swisher, Bobby Kielty, Darin Erstad, Milton Bradley
RF - Milton Bradley, Nick Swisher, Darin Erstad
3B - Eric Chavez, Antonio Perez, Marco Scutaro (slim chance, but still an option)
SS - Bobby Crosby, Marco Scutaro, Antonio Perez
2B - Mark Ellis, Marco Scutaro
1B - Dan Johnson, Nick Swisher, Mike Piazza, Darin Erstad, Erubiel Durazo
C - Jason Kendall, Adam Melhuse, Mike Piazza

As for Erstad's numbers, the offense isn't too pretty, but then again neither was Jay Payton's when he first came over, although I like Payton's overall numbers better than Erstad's. One thing not to overlook is Erstad's defense, which is above average. While Erstad will most likely be used as a situational and back up player, he is more than adequate for the role and this move would only add to the A's already significant depth.

Possible 2007 A's Roster

2006-12-31T11:25:00.000-08:00

Update: Thanks to the very useful Cot's Baseball Contracts I have updated the tentative roster below with contract numbers. Those missing are players under club control (figures not known yet) or players with whom the A's are still negotiating with under arbitration.

Update: Antonio Perez will be back in 2007. This makes things interesting for the 25-man roster as the A's will have to decide who is the odd-man out come opening day.

As the winter continues the A's 2007 roster is beginning to take shape. The A's lost Frank Thomas only to sign another aging slugger in Mike Piazza. Zito left for a boatload of green while Joe Kennedy prepares to compete for the open spot on the rotation and the A's sign LHP Alan Embree to fill out their bullpen. Jay Payton moved on to Baltimore but Beane and Co. manage to get OF Ryan Goleski from the Devil Rays in the rule 5 draft only to find out later that he had been injured and might not be available at the start of the season. Without further ado, here are your 2007 A's as I see them now:

SP - Rich Harden - $2 million
SP - Dan Haren - $2.2 million
SP - Joe Blanton - $0.380 million
SP - Esteban Loaiza - $6 million
SP - Joe Kennedy - $2.8 million

C - Huston Street - $0.380 million

RP - Justin Duchscherer - $1.18 million
RP - Kiko Calero - $1.6 million
RP - Chad Gaudin - $0.380 million
RP - Alan Embree - $2.25 million
RP - Kirk Saarloos - traded to the Reds
RP - Brad Halsey - $0.380 million

C - Jason Kendall - $13 million
C/DH - Adam Melhuse - $0.815 million

1B/DH - Dan Johnson - $0.380 million
1B/DH - Mike Piazza - $8.5 million
2B - Mark Ellis - $3.5 million
2B/SS - Marco Scutaro - $1.55 million
SS - Bobby Crosby - $2.5 million
3B - Eric Chavez - $9 million
3B - Antonio Perez - $0.500 million

OF - Mark Kotsay - $7 million
OF - Milton Bradley - $4 million
OF - Nick Swisher - $0.380 million
OF - Bobby Kielty - $2.1 million

That's the 25-man roster as I see it now. It's possible the A's could use Scutaro as the backup for all three infield positions so that Chavez could get a rest now and then but that's doubtful as Scutaro has spent scant time at 3B and is more effective in the SS/2B positions. That means the A's could drop Halsey from the 25-man roster to make room for Antonio Perez to back up Chavez. With Goleski recovering from injury, the A's could also roll the dice with a 4-man outfield which would also allow Perez to be on the 25-man roster and Halsey to stay. It all depends on what the A's see as their most pressing need come opening day.

I also think Jeremy Brown will be called up sometime during the season and that Adam Melhuse's days are numbered. Brown is becoming somewhat old for a prospect and Beane likes him, so expect Melhuse to be involved in some kind of mid-season trade while Brown becomes the back up catcher and occasional DH.

Erubiel Durazo is an interesting mix. If he performs well in Spring Training the A's will have some interesting decisions to make. The A's made this move strictly for depth, an insurance policy for both Dan Johnson and Mike Piazza should they struggle. He may start the season at AAA Sacramento but expect him to be called up at some point or perhaps even start on the 25-man roster.

I think Beane & Co., barring another wacky season of team-wide injuries, will wisely keep Barton in a full season of AAA, with the chance to be called up come September.

Zito to the Giants: What can they expect from him?

2006-12-30T15:55:00.000-08:00

The big news this week was the signing of Zito to a 7-year, $126 million contract (that's roughly $18 million per year), the largest contract ever for a pitcher - but not to the Mets, who were widely considered the front-runners in the race until they balked at adding more years to the contract. Instead, Zito gets to stay in the Bay Area (he lives in San Francisco) ending up with the Giants.

Blez from Athletics Nation says he is "...kind of done with Zito..."

Mike from Barry Zito Forever seems to be content as he can still flip over to the Giants games to watch Zito pitch.

The Professor sums up the life of an A's fan : "We envy in the winter, but smirk during the playoffs."

The Pastime is sorry to see Zito go, but reminds us that no matter what players say, it is always about the money.

Tim Kawakami of the Mercury News says this was nothing more than a "...risky public-relations decision...":

The Giants not only met the market price for Zito, they also went crazy high over it. They were more desperate than the Texas Rangers and they outbid the Mets! By more than $40 million! Do you know how amazing that is?
No, this was not really a baseball move. This was mostly an incredibly expensive and risky public-relations decision. A buy-a-big-name-now desperation decision. A well-timed nod-to-the-fringe decision.

This is the way the Yankees do business to fend off the Mets or what the Rangers do to fend off their awfulness or what the Dodgers do to fend off boredom.

This is what the A's never do. Think Billy Beane is cackling privately about his cross-bay rival locking up $18 million to Zito from now until 2013 while the A's consistently churn out better teams?

And Eric Gilmore of the Contra Costa Times wonders openly "How Long Will the Zito Fest Last?":

Zito isn't going to carry this old, light-hitting Giants team to the playoffs on his back, even though he has never missed a start in his professional career.

In Zito, the Giants signed a very good and dependable starting pitcher, but one who hasn't come close the past four seasons to matching his Cy Young numbers of 2002, when he went 23-5 with a 2.75 ERA for the A's.

Since his Cy Young year, Zito has gone 55-46 with ERAs of 3.30, 4.48, 3.86 and 3.83.

Zito's winning percentage the past four years is .545. That's lower than the A's overall winning percentage of .568 during that span.

I like Zito and I definitely think there is some good value in paying for durability - particularly when you find a guy who has never missed a start - but Gilmore is on to something with Zito's numbers.

I was talking to an old colleague of mine (who lives in San Francisco and is a Giants fan) who was absolutely ecstatic that his team outbid everybody else to secure Zito. I told him he should be happy because he was getting a good starter who had proved to be very durable, but that he should also curb his enthusiasm because Zito would prove to frustrate Giants fans with his up and down pitching performances throughout the year. As I said in my end of season review of Zito:

Zito can go out and give you 8-9 shutout innings, striking out 7-8 batters in barely 100 pitches. Or he can barely get through 6 innings with 120 pitches, 4-5 earned runs, and a boatload of walks. Sometimes he'll manage to string several solid performances together - other times it'll be a string of duds. But regardless, over a 162-game season, his better performances outweigh the bad.

Zito has always walked a lot of batters, but this year he walked a career high of 99. Like Haren, he too has given up a fair number of HR. Zito also completely fell apart at the end of the season, putting together a string of forgettable performances at the end of the season, but his saddest outing could also have been his last - a complete disaster in the ALCS against Detroit.

Here's Zito's numbers from 2001-2003 (I omitted 2000 because he only pitched 92 innings):

2001 - ERA 3.49 / HITS 184 / HR 18 / BB 80 / K 205 / WHIP 1.23 / AVG 0.230
2002 - ERA 2.75 / HITS 182 / HR 24 / BB 78 / K 182 / WHIP 1.13 / AVG 0.218
2003 - ERA 3.30 / HITS 186 / HR 19 / BB 88 / K 146 / WHIP 1.18 / AVG 0.219

Here's Zito's numbers from his last three seasons 2004-2006:

2004 - ERA 4.48 / HITS 216 / HR 28 / BB 81 / K 163 / WHIP 1.39 / AVG 0.263
2005 - ERA 3.86 / HITS 185 / HR 26 / BB 89 / K 171 / WHIP 1.20 / AVG 0.221
2006 - ERA 3.83 / HITS 211 / HR 27 / BB 99 / K 151 / WHIP 1.40 / AVG 0.257

From looking at these numbers it's possible Zito's best years are behind him. He has never replicated his Cy Young winning year of 2002 and his overall numbers have trended downward since 2003. His walks are up, his strikes are down, and that is not a WHIP to be proud of.

Now surely Zito will fare better in the NL. But the Giants just made Zito their centerpiece of the future, and I think Giants fans may expect too much out of Zito who is likely to give them versions 2004-2006 instead of 2001-2003.

Return of the Holy Grail?

2006-12-21T10:10:00.000-08:00

Sounds like the title to a bad Monty Python sequel :-)

According to the A's, Durazo could be back in the green and gold:

Currently starring for Hermasillo of the Mexican Winter League, Durazo on
Tuesday told a Mexican radio station -- after hitting three home runs in a game
-- that he was rejoining the A's.
Asked to confirm Durazo's announcement,
Oakland assistant GM David Forst, responding to a voicemail from MLB.com while
traveling late Wednesday, promptly did so with a brief text message.
"On a
plane," Forst wrote. "Minor League deal for Ruby. Invite to camp."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
The plan now is to bring Durazo to Spring Training, where he might get a
look at first base.

I always liked Durazo and felt that after his breakout 2004 season he was headed for bigger and better things. He received a pretty decent raise in 2005 but started off terribly, going 0.237 / 0.305 / 0.368 in 41 games and then injuring his elbow while practicing for first base. He was let go and spent 2006 in the minor leagues, where he played in 58 games split between 3 different teams and put up the following line:

BA 0.286 / OBP 0.389 / SLG 0.432 - 5 HR / 13 2B / 32 BB / 38 K

Currently in winter ball with Hermosillo, he has put up the following monstrous numbers:

BA 0.345 / OBP 0.454 / SLG 0.641 - 17 HR / 10 2B / 38 BB / 33 K

Durazo has always shown a penchant for getting on base, both in the majors (career 0.381 OBP) and in the minors, as well as in winter ball, which is probably why Beane was so high on him, dubbing him his "Holy Grail". But Beane obviously had no problem cutting ties with Durazo once his injury rendered him ineffective in 2005. But myself, along with some of my friends, always questioned letting him go so easily and openly wondered when the A's would pick him back up again.

It appears that Durazo will have his chance with the A's again in Spring Training, although I believe Durazo will have to put on one heck of a show if he wants to start with the A's. Even then, I believe Dan Johnson will be given the opportunity to prove he can be an everyday starter with Durazo on the bench before Durazo gets any opportunities at 1B. Then again, this could be clue that despite what Beane said about DJ there are doubts within the organization about his ability to hit, although I think too many people are putting too much weight into DJ's 2 incomplete seasons with the A's. He is young and judging a player on only 2 less-than-full seasons is a bit unfair.

But who knows, perhaps Durazo and Johnson could turn into quite the pair at 1B, with both splitting time at that position and occasionally spelling Piazza at DH. Having Durazo as a convenient back up in case Piazza struggles in his new league is a nice insurance policy - Durazo knows the A's, knows the AL, and knows how to hit in the Coliseum.

Jay Payton headed to Baltimore and other news

2006-12-10T14:58:00.000-08:00

I always liked JayPay. Sure, he had a pretty abysmal OBP, but he also didn't strike out too much. He was an aggressive contact hitter who played the game with the energy of a rookie and simply wanted to play, no matter what. My brain tells me Jay Payton is better off somewhere else but my heart tells me Jay Payton will be missed. He is headed for Baltimore to be their everyday RF.

With the Goleski pick in the rule-5 draft and the signing of Piazza as DH, the A's OF is starting to take focus. Goleski will most likely sit the bench - if he does well in Spring Training - as the A's fifth OF. That leaves a tandem of Kostay/Bradley in CF, both of whom are injury risks, and Kielty/Swisher handling the corners. Swisher's bat will keep him in the OF on a regular basis, but Kielty will be the odd-man out when both Kotsay and Bradley are healthy. Still, Kielty should expect more at bats than previous seasons: he's coming off his best year since coming over to the A's, he has a career OBP just a tick above 0.350, and he mashes left handed pitching. Kielty should be in the lineup everytime the A's face a left handed starter, Kotsay-be-damned, and Geren better check the job section of the newspaper if he doesn't.

Beane has also cleared up Dan Johnson's status on the team, so we can expect the A's to stick with DJ through his ups-and-downs at 1B and possibly the occasional DH role:

At this point, Beane said, the plan is for Nick Swisher to start in the outfield and to have Dan Johnson be the everyday first baseman. Beane said it is tempting to have Swisher's fielding ability at first base, but that giving Johnson another opportunity to play every day is more important.

"I just want to leave D.J. alone and let him hit," Beane said. "We're all big fans of D.J., and he's hit his entire career. He got off to a rough start last year, and it was sort of an uphill climb."

Emphasis mine. I'm a big fan of Dan Johnson as well and I was pretty disappointed to see him sent down, just when he was heating up (he hit 0.321 / 0.406 / 0.543 with 4 HR in June before being sent down). I think it's wise to stick with DJ and see what he does come 2007. He's a young player with less than 2 full seasons of major league duty under his belt, and he certainly has shown he can hit better than Crosby.

It will be interesting to see if Beane manages to snag a decent starting pitcher before Spring Training, but I doubt it will happen. It will be fun to watch Joe Kennedy, Brad Halsey, and Kirk Saarloos compete for the starter's job left vacant by Zito. Certainly none of them will be able to replace Zito, but I was impressed with Kennedy in the relief role last season. At the very worst we have 2 pitchers at AAA-Sacto very close to the major league level in Komine and Windsor should we run into any trouble. A strong and healthy Harden easily fills the gap left by Zito, since he barely pitched last season, so barring any long-term injuries and hopefully some improvement from players like Crosby and Chavez and the A's may just repeat or exceed their performance from last season.

A's Winter Meeting Notes

2006-12-07T18:37:00.000-08:00

First off this quick blurb from FOX Sports regarding the A's and Piazza, which they awarded "Best Hole-Filler" :

The A's wanted a right-handed power bat to replace Frank Thomas, and they got
one in Mike Piazza. Last season, Piazza managed to slug better than .500 despite
playing half his games in a park that's positively hostile toward right-handed
batters. He'll fall a bit short of Thomas in terms of OBP, but his power numbers
figure to be quite similar. As well, the A's are committed to him for only one
season.

It was especially nice having this follow immediately: "Worst. Gameplan. Ever."

The Giants. Apparently, their Winter Meetings plan of attack was to make an old
team even older and not give a moment's thought to the rotation. After the loss
of Schmidt, their rotation now consists of Matt Cain, Matt Morris and, well,
anything goes after that. If Barry Bonds winds up elsewhere, then this is the
worst team in the NL West.

Speaking of the Giants and the A's, Carl Steward's column from Inside Bay Area is a well recommended read:

Watching the A's and Giants do business at the winter baseball meetings is
a little like watching a hawk and an ostrich.

One quickly identifies what it wants, then swoops and snares its prey
without blinking. The other walks around aimlessly, sticking its head in
assorted holes in a frantic search for fulfillment.

Something tells me you don't have to be told which team is which. Once
again we are seeing that the Giants may have more wealth but they don't have
nearly the stealth — or the health — of the A's.

God bless Brian Sabean. He's sure been a busy guy this past week. But busy
doesn't necessarily constitute productive. The Giants have signed free agents
Ray Durham, Dave Roberts, Pedro Feliz, Rich Aurilia and Benji Molina this week,
but are they better? Not when they lose Jason Schmidt to the Dodgers, still
don't know about Barry Bonds and continue to carry Armando Benitez on their
roster.

The A's? They lost Frank Thomas and will lose Barry Zito any day now, but
Billy Beane hasn't even broken a sweat. He didn't even arrive at the winter
meetings until Wednesday, but by day's end, Oakland had signed left-handed Alan
Embree, agreed on an $8.5 million one-year deal with Mike Piazza and still had
time for a little fanciful chatter with the Mets about Beane's latest holy grail
fantasy, outfield prospectLastings Milledge.

Bang, zoom, in just a few hours of work, the A's no longer have any glaring
issues. Embree's signing clears the way for Joe Kennedy to challenge for the
rotation as Zito's left-handed replacement, and Piazza, whose deal only requires
the formality of a physical, is a more-than-satisfying tradeoff for Thomas at
DH.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

What we know is that the Giants, with or without Bonds, will have another
old team with thin starting pitching and a questionable bullpen in 2007. It's a
recipe for mediocrity or worse, particularly with the Dodgers and Padres —
already markedly better than the Giants at year's end — making significant moves
to improve themselves.

Unfortunately, with a farm system almost bereft of true position-player
prospects, the Giants have no choice but to sign retreads. If they don't, they
become the 100-loss Kansas City Royals instead of their mere 85-loss selves.
Don't fault Sabean, fault the system under which Giants ownership chooses to
operate.

Read the whole thing. The latest rumor has the Mets interested in Danny Haren - NOT Rich Harden - but I can imagine Beane's price would be pretty steep. He would want a good young arm in addition to Lastings Milledge.

The A's also got rid of minor leaguer Dominguez, and it looks like they picked up some good young players in the rule 5 draft:

Marshall pitched for Single-A Winston-Salem in the Chicago White Sox
organization last year and was 5-1 with four saves and a 1.02 ERA in 58 relief
appearances. He walked just eight and struck out 44 in 62.0 innings and allowed
a .210 opponents batting average, including .096 against left-handers. The
23-year old left-hander was originally selected by the White Sox in the 25th
round of the June, 2002 draft.

Goleski played in the Cleveland Indians organization last year and
batted a combined .306 with 27 home runs and 106 RBI in 125 games for Single-A
Kinston and Double-A Akron. He added 61 walks for a .391 on-base percentage. The
24-year old outfielder tied for sixth in all of the minor leagues in RBI and he
led the Cleveland farm system in home runs and RBI while ranking fourth in
batting. Goleski began the year by hitting .331 with 10 home runs and 43 RBI in
38 games at Kinston before he was promoted to Akron on May 27. He batted .296
with 17 home runs and 63 RBI in 87 games with the Aeros. Goleski was originally
drafted by Cleveland in the 24th round of the June, 2003 draft.

It's official: Welcome to the new A's DH

2006-12-07T08:33:00.001-08:00

Via Inside Bay Area:

The A's late Wednesday agreed to terms with Mike Piazza to a one-year, $8.5
million contract, according to a source with knowledge of the situation.

The deal will not be announced until Friday at the earliest because
Piazza still needs to take a physical.

This is a good deal for the A's and it seems for Piazza, who wanted the flexibility of a 1 year deal in case he decides to head back to the NL after this season:

Beane did confirm that the A's were discussing only a one-year contract with
Piazza, contrary to the buzz Tuesday that the A's had offered a two-year deal
worth about $15 million. One industry source said Piazza probably wanted
flexibililty in case he wants to return to the National League.

Piazza
has played his entire 15-year career as a catcher in the NL, but he'll be able
to leave his glove behind in the AL. Beane said Piazza likely will DH "99.9
percent of the time"....

As for what is expected of Piazza:

A's officials have insisted during the past week that they don't expect him to
put up the numbers (39 home runs, 114 RBIs) that Frank Thomas had as the team's
DH in 2006. But Piazza did hit 22 homers and had 68 RBIs with the Padres last
season, numbers that aren't as pedestrian when considering he played half his
games in Petco Park, a hitter's graveyard. He had a on-base/slugging mark of
.935 away from San Diego.

The quieter move the A's made, but equally important, was the signing of reliever Alan Embree, whom I have always liked, to a 2-year deal with a club option. This frees up a bullpen spot to be moved to the rotation and it is widely rumored that Joe Kennedy will replace Zito in the rotation. So going forward to 2007, the rotation most likely will be:

Harden
Haren
Loaiza (ugh)
Blanton
Kennedy

If Harden can stay healthy, the 1-2 punch of Harden followed by Haren could be the edge the A's need to stay competitive. Forget Loaiza, hope that Blanton rebounds and Kennedy can pitch as good or better than the Saarloos/Halsey experiment and we still have a tough rotation.

Mike Piazza signing imminent?

2006-12-05T23:41:00.000-08:00

According to this article from the Contra Costa Times, which is really about Geren, we find this little tidbit:

The A's once again made little hard news -- though it now appears it's only a matter of "when" not "if" the team signs Mike Piazza --

And this:

Late Tuesday, the A's continued to be the leaders in the Piazza pursuit, and one major-league executive called the free agent's signing "imminent."
One industry source said the A's have offered Piazza a two-year deal for about $15 million, and that their chief competition, the Texas Rangers, have abandoned their pursuit. The Los Angeles Angels, mentioned by one source Monday as a possible suitor, were never all that interested, another source said Tuesday.

And Blez spells out his reasons why Piazza may or may not work out.

Apparently the expectation is that Piazza will DH with the occasional catching duty. Forget catching period - he should do nothing but hit. And get rid of Melhuse and bring in Jeremy Brown as the back up catcher. Kendall should be the primary catcher with Jeremy Brown backing him up. I don't think Jeremy Brown is our future catcher, but if he can get some solid at bats under his belt and play passable defense he could be used as effective trade fodder down the stretch. The A's farm system has a number of catching prospects, with some of them, like Kurt Suzuki, most likely to develop into better players than Brown.

Mike Piazza - new A's DH?

2006-12-04T21:32:00.000-08:00

I'm beginning to have my doubts about Piazza becoming the new A's DH now that teams like Texas and the Angels are interested in him, who will almost assuredly drive the price for the aging and declining super-star well beyond the A's range. However, if the A's can manage to pick him up for a 1-year deal (Barton is waiting in the wings) similar to Thomas, I think he would fit in nicely. Let's take a quick look at some numbers:

2006: 0.283 BA / 0.342 OBP / 0.501 SLG / 0.843 OPS / 22 HR / 19 2B / 1 3B / 34 BB / 66 K
Career: 0.309 BA / 0.379 OBP / 0.551 SLG / 0.930 OPS / 419 HR / 741 BB / 1052 K

While it's been 5 years since Piazza breached the 0.300 level for BA and 2006 marked his best year in OPS since 2003, Piazza has shown he can still hit for decent average with some above average power and passing plate discipline. While Piazza doesn't seem to walk too much he also, like many A's hitters, doesn't strike out too much either, which means he is usually making contact, always a good attribute in my humble opinion.

Another nice tidbit of information: He absolutely clobbers LHP to the tune of 0.312 / 0.406 / 0.530 averaged over his last 3 seasons and 0.359 / 0.421 / 0.650 in 2006.

Piazza, while probably not contributing at the same level as The Big Hurt, would still be a nice addition to the A's DH spot while Barton gets in a solid year at AAA Sacto.

Ty Van Burkleo - The New A's Hitting Coach

2006-12-04T21:20:00.000-08:00

Not much in the press release:

Van Burkleo comes to the A's from the Los Angeles Angels organization where he was the minor league roving hitting instructor for the past six seasons. He began his coaching career as a player/coach for the Angels at Single-A Lake Elsinore in 1996 and also spent four seasons as a minor league coach in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization from 1997-2000.

In his entire professional career he played in only 14 major league games, but I never put much stock into major league experience - the big leagues are full of successful coaches and managers who never succeeded at the major league level (Billy Beane is a prime example). What's more interesting to me is his minor league experience and how well he did coaching and grooming the young up-and-coming players? If this season's ridiculously over-priced free agent market is a glimpse of years to come, the A's, as in the past, will have to continue to rely on young, rising talent from their farm system, and it will take patient and talented coaches to nurture these young players into future A's stars.

At this point I will settle for someone who can teach Crosby to lay off outside pitches and curb his violent swing, make sure we get the post-AllStar 2006 Mark Ellis instead of the pre-AllStar Ellis, and get Swisher to hit better with runners in scoring position while also improving his BA.

Still travelling - very limited internet access

2006-11-26T07:15:00.000-08:00

I am still travelling, but will be back to the U.S. and will resume regular blogging this weekend. Been trying to stay on top of the A's news, no big surprise, Geren is indeed the manager. I don't think Geren is a bad choice, at least the players know him pretty well and he had a lot of success managing in the minor leagues. But by delaying what many thought was the inevitable, Beane simply made the whole lenghty process seem like an orchestrated charade.

Thomas leaving is disappointing, I had a lot of hope that Beane and Thomas would be able to come to some kind of terms. But Beane was right to let him go to Toronto for more money - Thomas had an incredible year in Oakland, but he is still a high risk player, both because of his age and his bad ankle.

Which leads me to Bonds, news of which I first dismissed as merely rumor, but then shocked to find that the A's are seriously considering him. Let me simply say that regardless of the talent Bonds brings to a team, that is some serious baggage that is simply not worth any price tag. I am hoping that someone else will offer Bonds a much better price and he will stay away from the A's. If Bonds becomes a member of the A's, I am not sure what I will do come 2007. My gut reaction would be to simply stop supporting the A's entirely and this blog would turn into some kind of "fire Beane/Wolff" rant until they got rid of Bonds, however I'll wait to see if this becomes reality before deciding what to do, but needless to say I will be very upset and extremely disappointed in the A's front office if that happens.

Anyways, hang in there, regular posting to resume in about 1 week.

A's round up

2006-11-02T23:26:00.000-08:00

I am leaving early tomorrow morning for a rather long trip overseas, so here's a round up of what's been going on with the A's to keep you busy for a little while. I will do my best to post as often as possible during my trip but internet access will be limited.

After interviewing internal manager candidates Ron Washington and Bob Geren earlier this week, Nippon Ham Fighters manager Trey Hillman interviewed with the A's yesterday:

Hillman last week led the Fighters to their first Japan Series title since 1962, completing his second two-year contract with the club. Hillman left a job as Texas' director of player development for Japan just before the Rangers fired former manager Jerry Narron and hired Buck Showalter after the 2002 season.

Before his year in the Rangers organization, Hillman spent 12 seasons as a minor league manager in the New York Yankees organization.

Hillman is on a whirlwind tour of baseball clubs as he is also interviewing with the Rangers and Padres. Also mentioned in the article is a new addition to the manager mix, Mets bench coach Manny Acta, who is supposed to interview with the A's on November 12. According to this article in the Contra Costa Times, Hillman felt pleased with his interview:

"I don't know how it went, but I had a blast," Hillman said. "Shoot, we talked baseball, we talked philosophy, we talked personnel. I think the biggest challenge for any organization, like Oakland, is to find the right personality and leadership skills for their club on the field.

"Today was a lot of fun. I wish I had more time."

Meanwhile the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan are getting ready to compete next season without Hillman, expecting him to be picked up by one of the U.S. major league clubs. Sounds like he did a pretty good job in Japan, particularly in regards to communication and relationships:

To an outside observer, the Fighters' seemed to develop on multiple levels under Hillman. The scouts and front office have done an amazing job of locating and drafting talent; the minor league staff has kept enough of that talent on track to add value to the big club; the coaches have
helped players make the necessary adjustments and have, along with the advance scouts, kept both the players and the manager up to speed on the opposition.

At the business end of this process is the players. The youngsters--and veterans whose careers had stagnated--have been making incremental development with Hillman's information-based approach keeping them abreast of their progress.

Add to that Hillman' decisiveness and knowledge of the game and it is no surprise the club has prospered. It is a winning formula for any organization, but it worked smoothly because Hillman is fanatical about communicating--both in getting his message across but also about acting on
others' ideas. The organization has matured because Hillman and general manager Shigeru Takada threw open the lines of communication.

"I am busting with pride that the people under my leadership have proved that things have to be relationship based," Hillman said by phone shortly before leaving for the United States on Tuesday.

With nearly everyone contributing ideas openly--and knowing the manager hears him--the organization has grown tremendously. From bringing in three front-line starting pitchers in two seasons, to the rapid development of second baseman Kensuke Tanaka, to dealing decisively with pitcher Satoru Kanemura's tirade, the club made one good adjustment after
another.

Hillman's comments in this article from the Dallas Morning News also echoes the communication/relationship meme:

Among the topics he discussed were how Nippon Ham went from a long-time also-ran to Japanese champion in four years while he managed the team and the potential difficulties of coming to the major leagues after four years overseas.

"It's not a different approach," Hillman said. "It's about building relationships with the front office, but most importantly about building relationships with the players. They've got to want to play for you and be with you. I understand that anytime you jump from one organization
to another, you are making some kind of a jump. But if somebody said I hadn't been around major league caliber play while I was in Japan, I'd have to respectfully disagree."

Hmm.....sounds like Hillman could be just what the A's need....

It's a pretty well known fact that the A's days in Oakland are probably numbered, with Fremont rumored to be the front-runner for the A's next home. In the meantime, don't panic, the A's will be in Oakland until at least 2010:

The Oakland City Council on Tuesday unanimously approved a lease extension to keep the A's at McAfee Coliseum through at least 2010, but several members acknowledged the deal is a stopgap measure as team owners look for a new home, perhaps in Fremont.

Council member Larry Reid said he hoped the A's could be persuaded to stay in Oakland, but doubted it was possible.

``I truly think the A's are out of here in three or four years,'' Reid said, adding that he did not think there was the political will to subsidize a new stadium for the defending American League West champions.

Under the terms of the deal, the A's would be penalized for breaking the lease early unless they move to a ballpark inside the county. A's owner Lew Wolff is reportedly staking out a 143-acre site on vacant land in Fremont now controlled by Cisco Systems.

The extension at the Coliseum, which will mean $2.8 million in revenue for the city of Oakland and Alameda County, also gives the A's three one-year options, which could extend the lease through the 2013 season.

No word yet from New A's Ballpark blog on this development, but I'm sure he'll be forthcoming.

BaseballGirl over at Athletics Nation has a post on Mark Ellis and Marco Scutaro where she describes Scoot as follows:

One would be hard-pressed to be able to create an iron-clad case for Scutaro being anything but, quite bluntly, a serviceable back-up infielder. He is both a below-average fielder and below-average hitter.....

She follows this up by saying that the A's fan base sees Marco as "...the disposable player..." Naturally, the many comments that follow disagree, as do I. Granted, my immediate group of fellow A's fans is rather small, but every single one of them is a big Scutaro fan. The same can
not be said of Mark Ellis. While none of us dislike Mark Ellis, we don't really have any strong opinions on the guy, he's just....well, Mark Ellis, 2B of the Oakland Athletics. While Marco's range is not as great as Ellis or Crosby, he has shown remarkable defense at both 2B and SS
positions and, unlike both Ellis and Crosby, has managed to avoid the DL so far. As we noted on this blog when we scored the A's hitters, Scutaro has been improving his numbers with more regular playing time over his 3 years with the A's:

Although a light-hitter, he has managed to improve on his overall numbers year after year:
2004 – 0.273 / 0.297 / 0.393 / 0.690 – 16 BB / 58 K
2005 – 0.247 / 0.310 / 0.391 / 0.701 – 36 BB / 48 K
2006 – 0.266 / 0.350 / 0.397 / 0.747 – 50 BB / 66 K
In each of his season with the A’s he has managed to dramatically increase his walk totals without sacrificing any power. He also has a penchant for the dramatic game-ending hit, which has made him a fan and media favorite in Oakland.

Let's take a look at Mark Ellis' last 3 seasons:
2003 - 0.248 / 0.313 / 0.371 / 0.684 - 48 BB / 94 K
2005 - 0.316 / 0.384 / 0.477 / 0.861 - 44 BB / 51 K
2006 - 0.249 / 0.319 / 0.385 / 0.704 - 40 BB / 76 K

As mentioned in our report on Ellis, he managed to really pick things up after the All-Star break:

At first glance, and especially compared to last season, Mark Ellis’ numbers look like a disappointment. But let’s take a closer look at his pre and post-All Star splits:
Pre-All Star: BA 0.219 / OBP 0.288 / SLG 0.311 – 3 HR
Post-All Star: BA 0.273 / OBP 0.342 / SLG 0.445 – 8 HR
--------------------------------------------------
I believe his post-All Star numbers paint a fairly good picture of what we can expect from Ellis in the future, provided he doesn’t slump early on in the season: a 0.270-280 / 0.330-0.340 / 0.400-0.440 hitter with low double digit HR and a modest number of walks. Combine that with
outstanding defense at 2B and you have one heck of a second baseman.

It's clear that Ellis, when healthy, is the superior player both defensively and offensively, but Marco has been far more than adequate as a back-up infielder, he has been invaluable. Mark Ellis is good, but I don't consider him to be the "...reigning golden boy..." and the A's would
be smart to hang onto Scutaro who is bound to get playing time again next year with both Crosby and Ellis as injury risks. Of course, Beane has surprised me in the past, and Scutaro's value is pretty high, so anything could happen, but I definitely think Scutaro is the more popular
player with the fans, thanks mostly to his timely hits, and has shown a lot of progress.

Grading the pitchers - Part I

2006-10-30T19:38:00.000-08:00

Now that we've finished grading the hitters it's time to get on to the pitchers. The A's overall had a pretty good pitching staff, although it was a bit disappointing to see Blanton drop off so much from his stellar rookie year and Loaiza was a complete bust except for a brief flash of brilliance in August. The bullpen was rock steady anchored by the combination of Calero, Duchscherer, and Street at the end. Gaudin wins the sleeper performance of the year for coming out of nowhere, Witasick drops off the planet (who is Witasick? oh yeah, he's still with the A's, don't remember seeing him too much), and Zito had a pretty solid year for technically his last year in Oakland.

Dan Haren - SP - 223 IP / 4.12 ERA / 31 HR / 45 BB / 176 K / 1.21 WHIP
0.258 AVG / 7.10 K/9
Dan Haren pretty much ended up the year the same as last, albeit for a higher ERA. His WHIP, AVG, K/9, IP, even his win-loss record were eerily similar to 2005. Dan Haren so far has proven to be durable with his second +200 IP season. He strikes out batters on a higher than average rate, but gives up quite a few HR in the process as well. He doesn't allow too many baserunners with that WHIP and keeps hitters down to a 0.258 AVG. Haren is a solid starter and a vaulable addition to the A's staff. If he can improve with experience and find a way to keep balls from leaving the park, he could be a future ace.

Overall Grade: B+

Post-season notes: Haren pitched 2 games for an ERA of 4.09, the best out of the 5 starters.

Where he will be in 2007: The A's wisely locked Haren up under a long-term contract, he will be back.

Barry Zito - SP - 221 IP / 3.83 ERA / 27 HR / 99 BB / 151 K / 1.40 WHIP
0.257 AVG / 6.15 K/9
Zito's greatest quality is not his devastating curveball, his changeup, or any other pitch in his arsenal. His greatest quality is durability. Zito has yet to miss a start and has pitched +200 innings 6 years in a row. When Billy Beane shocked the baseball world by trading not just 1, but 2 of his vaunted Big Three pitchers, it was noted at the time that Zito was the only one of the three who had never been placed on the DL or missed a start, despite coming off his worst season in 2004.
While I like Zito and admire his durability, he has not been my favorite pitcher. Make no mistake, he is good, but he has also shown a frustrating streak of inconsistency, and this year was no different:
April - 5.93 ERA / 1.24 WHIP
May - 1.32 ERA / 1.24 WHIP
June - 3.95 ERA / 1.44 WHIP
July - 4.02 ERA / 1.39 WHIP
August - 3.40 ERA / 1.39 WHIP
September - 5.40 ERA / 1.74 WHIP

Looking at the game by game breakdowns it is even more pronounced. Zito can go out and give you 8-9 shutout innings, striking out 7-8 batters in barely 100 pitches. Or he can barely get through 6 innings with 120 pitches, 4-5 earned runs, and a boatload of walks. Sometimes he'll manage to string several solid performances together - other times it'll be a string of duds. But regardless, over a 162-game season, his better performances outweigh the bad.

Zito has always walked a lot of batters, but this year he walked a career high of 99. Like Haren, he too has given up a fair number of HR. Zito also completely fell apart at the end of the season, putting together a string of forgettable performances at the end of the season, but his saddest outing could also have been his last - a complete disaster in the ALCS against Detroit.Overall Grade: B+ (he'd get an A if he didn't falter at the end and showed a little more consistency)

Post-Season notes: Was stellar against Santana and the Twins, complete disaster against Detroit.

Where he will be in 2007: Headed for a high market (or pocket) team, the A's simply can not afford what he will fetch on the free agent market. Personally I think the NY Mets will grab him up, but other likely destinations include the Yankees, Dodgers, San Diego, possibly even Boston.

Overall Grade: B+ (he'd get an A if he didn't falter at the end and showed a little more consistency)

Post-Season notes: Was stellar against Santana and the Twins, complete disaster against Detroit.

Where he will be in 2007: Headed for a high market (or pocket) team, the A's simply can not afford what he will fetch on the free agent market. Personally I think the NY Mets will grab him up, but other likely destinations include the Yankees, Dodgers, San Diego, possibly even Boston.

Joe Blanton - SP - 194.1 IP / 4.82 ERA / 17 HR / 58 BB / 107 K / 1.54 WHIp
0.309 AVG / 4.96 K/9
Joe Blanton was a serious rookie of the year candidate when he posted a 3.53 ERA in his first full season in 2005 in 201.1 IP. He fell off considerably in 2006, watching his ERA explode along with an ungodly 1.54 WHIP. That's a lot of runners on base.

Where did all those extra runs and bloated ERA come from? Hits. In 2005 Blanton gave up 178 hits in 201.1 IP for an opponents batting AVG of only 0.236 and a WHIP of 1.22. This year Blanton gave up 241 hits in even fewer innings (194.1), allowing an opponents batting AVG of 0.309. Other than this obvious discrepancy, most of Blanton's other numbers look pretty close to what he did in 2005:
2005 - 23 HR / 67 BB / 116 K / 1.73 K/BB / 5.19 K/9
2006 - 17 HR / 58 BB / 107 K / 1.84 K/BB / 4.96 K/9
He managed to cut back some on his HR and BB totals and kept his K/9 pretty close.

Blanton is a young pitcher with plenty of talent who at times blew the game wide open. While I certainly didn't expect for Blanton to repeat his incredible performance from 2005, I also did not expect him to falter as much as he did. That being said, Blanton is definitely better than his 2006 performance indicated, although I think it would be stretching it to expect another 2005 out of him. I figure if he can cut back on the number of hits allowed and turn some those hits into strikeouts or simply outs while maintaining all his other numbers then he should be a solid performer in 2007. I am looking for a slightly +4.00 ERA / +/-1.30 WHIP / double digit win season for Blanton in 2007. Hope I'm right.

Overall Grade: C

Post-Season notes: Blanton's poor performance, particularly at the end of the season, doomed him to relief status in the playoffs where he pitched a measly 2 innings in relief.

Where he will be in 2007: With the A's starting rotation.

Esteban Loaiza - SP - 154.2 IP / 4.89 ERA / 17 HR / 40 BB / 97 K / 1.42 WHIP
0.288 AVG / 5.64 K/9
The Esteban Loaiza free-agent signing by Beane raised a lot of eyebrows and for good reason. The A's are not known for big free agent signings and Loaiza was getting a nice $7 million dollar a year contract for 3 years. While he had just completed a solid season with the Nationals and had won 21 games with a 2.90 ERA with the White Sox in 2003, the rest of his career was an up and down nightmare. Signed as a solid "innings-eater" who was supposedly durable and had a nice career BB/K ratio, Loaiza seemed fine in Spring Training only to fall flat on his face to an alarmed and quickly angered fan base.

Tossing your fastball in the low 80's when you normally hit the low-mid 90's enroute to an ERA of 8.35 with ZERO wins in April does not endear you to the fans as a new player. No one forgot his dismal performance either, even when he pitched an outstanding August amidst a bunch of sub-standard or downright terrible months:
April: 8.35 ERA
June: 4.91 ERA
July: 7.26 ERA
Aug: 1.48 ERA
Sept: 5.11 ERA

Take out that August, which was CLEARLY an anomaly, and you have a 2006 ERA above 6.00.

Loaiza's entire career is a bunch of sub-par performances with the occasional diamond in the rough - he has had only 2 full seasons with an ERA under 4.00 and his career WHIP is 1.42. I don't know what kind of numbers the A's were looking at when they decided to sign Loaiza, because everything I saw said this was a disaster in the making.

Overall Grade: F

Post-Season Notes: Loaiza showed that his April and July numbers were the norm with a 7.36 ERA and 3 HR given up in 11 IP.

Where he will be in 2007: Thanks to his awful A's debut, nobody will be interested in entertaining a trade for Loaiza, he is under a nice expensive contract for 2 more seasons with the A's so we are stuck with him. He'll be back, much to the detriment of A's fans everywhere.

Rich Harden - SP - 46.2 IP / 4.24 ERA / 5 HR / 26 BB / 49 K / 1.22 WHIP
0.191 AVG / 9.45 K/9
Harden seems intent on doing his best Kerry Wood/Mark Prior impression with his second DL-shortened season in a row. He spent most of the year on the DL, but when pitching was mostly lights-out. When pitching he struck out more than a batter per inning and kept opponents batting AVG below 0.200 for the first time in his career. Harden, more than anyone else on the A's staff, has the potential to be an elite starting pitcher with ACE written all over them. Unfortunately 2 injury-ridden seasons have brought his long-term durability and pitching role into question.

If Harden can stay conditioned during the off-season and manage to stay healthy for at least 150+ IP, he could easily be one of the best, if not THE best, starting pitchers in the league.

Overall Grade: D+ (I had to give him credit for outstanding pitching when he was healthy, short time that it was)

Post-Season Notes: Harden pitched 1 rocky post-season game for an ERA of 4.76 in 5.2 IP.

Where he will be in 2007: Back in the A's starting rotation, hopefully for a nice, healthy season.

To be continued....bullpen next.

Background on Bob Geren

2006-10-30T18:22:00.000-08:00

Finally someone in the blogosphere has some useful information on Bob Geren, current bench coach for the A's and one of the internal candidates being considered for the manager's job:

A fellow San Diego native, Geren had been drafted by the Padres in 1979. A year later, though, Geren had been packaged with Rollie Fingers, Terry Kennedy, Gene Tenace to the Cardinals for a few players, including Nick Swisher’s father, Steve.

Like Beane, Geren had been snatched in the first round in 1979, a year before Beane was drafted. Geren is 45, and Beane is 44.

Like Beane, as a player, Geren’s statistics were far from impressive, and besides talent, both underachieved. A catcher most of his career with the Yankees and Padres, Geren batted .233 with 22 homeruns spanning five seasons (307 games). At 31, his career was over, though.

Beane and Geren’s career shouted a constant. Both were expected to excel in the majors, but both fell short. They can empathize with each other, and that's probably why they connect so well.

After joining the A’s organization in 1999, Geren managed the Modesto A’s, their Single-A affiliate, where he captured the California League Manager of the Year honors. For the next three seasons, he steered the Sacramento Rivercats to consecutive Pacific Coast playoff appearances, before becoming the A’s bullpen coach.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Based on this research, Professor has come up with this finding:

Beane wants Geren, and the pupils just the read reasons.

If Beane crowns Geren the next skipper, we will witness Mr. Moneyball's on-the-field shadow as never before.

Hat tip to Athletics Nation.

Mychael Urban on the next manager in Oakland and the future of Frank Thomas

2006-10-30T18:06:00.000-08:00

...in his weekly mailbag feature:

On the next manager:

I can't answer that question with even an ounce of certainty, so I won't. General manager Billy Beane generally doesn't tip his hand during negotiations, and that's what a managerial search is -- one huge negotiation. Last time I spoke to him regarding candidates, it was like he flipped into this heretofore unheard Robo-GM mode: "We'll take our time ... due diligence ... respect the process ... Erubiel Durazo ... OK, where was I?"

And that's his right. If anything, Beane's relative silence on the matter probably means that he doesn't have a front-runner at this point.

He too is partial to Ron Washington but notes that Beane often doesn't take the popular consensus into account when making decisions.

On the supposed $15 million deal to keep Thomas in Oakland for 2 years:

I have nothing to add but this: If that's really the deal, Thomas should take it and run. Not run hard, but take it and run. It's a good deal, and Oakland is a good place for Thomas right now.

He's also high on Blanton, as am I (I'll be commenting on Blanton in my pitchers' grades, which is currently in process).

Add Rangers bench coach and Trey Hillman to the candidate list

2006-10-29T15:31:00.000-08:00

Trey Hillman, manager for the Japanese baseball team Nippon Ham Fighters, is now reported to also be interviewing for the A's manager position:

Hillman confirmed in an e-mail on Sunday morning that he will interview with Texas and also with Oakland and San Diego for their managerial openings.

The A's are also seeking permission to interview the Rangers bench coach, Don Wakamatsu.

Internal candidates Washington and Geren are scheduled to be interviewed this week.

A’s grades part III…

2006-10-27T17:34:00.000-07:00

Continuing along with our grades for the A’s hitters. Previous posts on A’s grades can be seen here and here.

Dan Johnson – 1B/Hatteberg clone – BA 0.234 / OBP 0.323 / SLG 0.381 / OPS 0.704
9 HR / 13 2B / 1 3B / 37 RBI / 40 BB / 45 K
There’s no question that Hatteberg Jr. had a rough year. After struggling earlier in the season, the A’s brass decided he needed to be sent down to AAA to regain his stroke, despite the fact that in June he hit 0.321 / 0.406 / 0.543 in 81 AB with 4 HR. Let’s also not forget that both Ellis and particularly Crosby were also struggling at the same time with equal or even worse numbers, yet it was poor DJ who got sent down. I guess infield defense counts for a lot more than 1B.

I was one of those few who supported DJ before he got sent down, pointing out that while he struggled mightily in April and barely hit at all in May, he was having quality at bats. Dan Johnson has a good eye and is patient at the plate. He rarely strikes out and the way he works pitch counts would make Hatty proud. And let’s not forget that DJ walks more than most. From April-June, Dan Johnson had an equal number of walks vs strikeouts (31 to 31) and ended the season with 40 BB vs 45 K. In his 2 short years in the majors, he has a 90 to 97 walk-to-strikeout ratio.

Dan Johnson was sent down to AAA where he literally destroyed AAA pitching. Later in the season he was brought back where he struggled again, albeit better than in April and May. Not able to count on regular starts probably contributed to his difficulties. While I was disappointed in his overall numbers, he continued to show patience in his approach.

Overall Grade: C-

Playoff Notes: Official bench warmer.

Where he will be in 2007: He’s young, he’s cheap, and has patient at bats. He only has 2 short years in the majors and should be able to improve on this years numbers. The A’s would be stupid to let him go, but should definitely work on his development and give him a chance to start regularly at 1B again.

Bobby Kielty – OF – BA 0.270 / OBP 0.329 / SLG 0.441 / OPS 0.770
8 HR / 20 2B / 13B / 36 RBI / 22 BB / 49 K
Kielty once again played the dutiful role of backing up the OF and the occasional insertion against LHP (left handed pitchers). Kielty managed to contribute most of the time he was in the line up with pretty consistent numbers throughout the months, although he had a poor Sept. His best months were June and August and this marks the third straight year of improvement from Mr. Kielty:
2004 – 0.214 / 0.321 / 0.370 / 0.691
2005 – 0.263 / 0.350 / 0.395 / 0.745
2006 – 0.270 / 0.329 / 0.441 / 0.770
Kielty is known for his patience and racking up a fair share of walks, but the rise in strikeouts this year is cause for some concern.

With Kotsay’s back acting up it created the perfect opportunity to bring Kielty into the game more often, but thanks to Kotsay’s incessant whining and complaining about being in a platoon, Kielty didn’t see as much playing time as he should have. In fact, I was very disappointed hearing Kotsay’s complaint about “platooning” and playing time, particularly when Kielty was hitting better than Kotsay and is the far superior option against lefties:
Kotsay vs LHP: 0.265 / 0.293 / 0.410
Kielty vs LHP: 0.325 / 0.358 / 0.607

This is an easy decision for any manager, particularly one dealing with a light-hitting CF with a bad back. Sorry Kotsay, but I would have sat you every time we faced a LHP, putting Payton or Bradley in CF so Kielty could be in the lineup. The fact that Kotsay failed to understand this and whine about playing time is pretty disappointing.

Overall Grade: B

Post-season notes: Kielty only had 2 at bats in the playoffs, despite the A’s facing a multitude of LHP. Macha claims he bent to pressure from Kotsay to make him happy by playing him instead of Kielty and that this is one of the reasons he was fired – for making such a bone-headed decision in the midst of the playoffs I would have been tempted to fire you too.

Where he will be in 2007: Barring an unreasonable salary raise in arbitration or being involved in one of Beane’s infamous off-season trades, Kielty should be back for 2007, again in a limited role, although I think he deserves far more playing time than he has received in the past. Put him in there against every left handed pitcher and the occasional righty as well just to mix things up and give aching Kotsay and perhaps Bradley a spell. It’s also possible that if Payton is let go that Kielty could get a shot as an everyday player, but that’s doubtful.

Mark Kotsay – CF/future Bengay spokesman – BA 0.275 / OBP 0.332 / SLG 0.386 / OPS 0.718
7 HR / 29 2B / 3 3B / 59 RBI / 44 BB / 55 K
Despite an aching back Kotsay still managed to snag more than 500 AB for the third year in a row. Once again he exhibited stellar defense and is easily one of the best defensive CF in the game. Unfortunately 2006 also marked his worst offensive year since 1999 where he sported an OPS of 0.708 and easily his worst year with the A’s so far. He failed to reach double digits in HR and failed to SLG 0.400 or better for the third time in his career. It also marked the third straight decline in his overall offensive numbers, where he started off with a bang in 2004 only to put in a mediocre 2005 and a pretty weak 2006. We now have an expensive, light-hitting, but strong defensive CF under contract with a bad back who can be expected to miss regular time season after season. A big Kotsay fan when he first came over from San Diego, I was disappointed when I read that he was whining about playing time and sharing at bats with Kielty.

Overall Grade: C- (only reason it isn’t a D is because of his defense)

Post-season notes: Kostay was again a light-hitter, but was the talk of the town briefly for his inside the park HR vs The Twins that had him racing for home with his shirt coming out of his pants.

Where he will be in 2007: Not too many teams looking for a weak-hitting CF with a bad back locked up for big money. Kotsay will be back in 2007 but better start learning to share field time with his teammates.

Marco Scutaro – SS/2B/Mr. Clutch – BA 0.266 / OBP 0.350 / SLG 0.397 / OPS 0.747
5 HR / 21 2B / 6 3B / 41 RBI / 50 BB / 66 K
What’s not to like about Scutaro? The timely game-ending hits, the chants of “Marco………Scutaro” in the coliseum, and the ability of this likeable sparkplug to capably play any infield position available combine to make him a fan-favorite player. Injuries to Crosby and Ellis be damned! We have Scutaro to right the ship!

Scutaro has played in an incredible number of games during his 3-year stint with the A’s thanks to the multiple injuries of Crosby and Ellis. While his range his limited, he has nonetheless dazzled with his defense. Although a light-hitter, he has managed to improve on his overall numbers year after year:
2004 – 0.273 / 0.297 / 0.393 / 0.690 – 16 BB / 58 K
2005 – 0.247 / 0.310 / 0.391 / 0.701 – 36 BB / 48 K
2006 – 0.266 / 0.350 / 0.397 / 0.747 – 50 BB / 66 K
In each of his season with the A’s he has managed to dramatically increase his walk totals without sacrificing any power. He also has a penchant for the dramatic game-ending hit, which has made him a fan and media favorite in Oakland. Although he had a horrible May and a mediocre June, he steadily improved on his numbers from July through September, hitting all 5 of his HR during this 3 month period and 4 of his 6 triples. His outstanding performance on the field in place of Crosby and his far superior numbers at the plate turned Crosby into a “non-entity” to borrow a phrase from Macha. Crosby who? Oh yeah, he used to play SS for the A’s – is he still on the team?

Overall Grade: B

Post-season notes: Scutaro was the hero during the ALDS but watched his numbers collapse with a lackluster performance during the ALCS

Where he will be in 2007: Scutaro would probably be an everyday player on another team and is invaluable as a back up for the A’s. While he is due for a substantial raise, expect him back in yet another back up role awaiting the inevitable injury to Crosby where he will shine again in Crosby’s place.

Antonio Perez – Who? – BA 0.102 / OBP 0.185 / SLG 0.204
Other numbers: who the heck cares.
Perez suffered from a lack of playing time, which, when it did come, was intermittent. Coming in for the occasional pinch hit or rare game it’s difficult to get into your groove or build up any kind of consistency. With a lack of regular at bats, Perez floundered, and even when given several games in a row failed to do anything noteworthy. Still, he’s a young player and has yet to play a full year in the big league. There’s a chance for him yet.

Overall Grade: F

Post-Season notes: Huh?

Where he will be in 2007: This is the second bust in a row for Beane, who traded for Keith Ginter in 2005 to back up Chavez with similarly disastrous results. Ginter got sent down to AAA early in 2005 and spent all of 2006 there with lackluster numbers. Surprising that Perez didn’t get sent down, but with Chavez playing injured I guess they wanted Perez around just-in-case. With his dismal numbers look for Perez to be sent down or released. Beane will have to look yet again for a suitable back up for Chavez.

Adam Melhuse – backup C/benchwarmer – BA 0.219 / OBP 0.273 / SLG 0.375 / OPS 0.648
4 HR / 8 2B / 18 RBI / 9 BB / 34 K
Poor Melhuse never had a chance with iron-man Kendall pushing to start every single game he could bully Macha into giving to him. Of course it doesn’t help when you don’t have a good relationship with your manager and even worse when you don’t perform too well the few chances you were given. Still, he was a capable back up who has served the A’s well over the years, but with Kendall onboard for 1 more season with the A’s and Beane pushing to get Money-baller Jeremy Brown into the lineup, look for Melhuse to head elsewhere.

Overall Grade: D (probably would have been better with some regular playing time here and there)

Post-Season: Never mind.

Where he will be in 2007: Gone to greener pastures, I hope. Someone should pick him up. Jeremy Brown will be the back up catcher for 2007, count on it.

Jason Kendall – C/iron-man – BA 0.295 / OBP 0.367 / SLG 0.342 / OPS 0.709
1 HR / 23 2B / 50 RBI / 53 BB / 54 K
Kendall finally had the season everyone was expecting him to have when he first came to Oakland and managed to hit his first HR in almost 2 years. Kendall served the leadoff position well, hitting for high average, rarely striking out, and finding a way to get on base any way possible with plenty of HBP (hit by pitcher) and walks. Yet another slow starter, he picked things up in May and batted 0.300 or better the last 2 months of the season. He also showed surprising durability and speed for a catcher (11 SB, a lot for an A’s player) playing in 143 games. A team leader and old-fashioned gritty player.

Overall Grade: B+ (would have liked to have seen a few more walks)

Post-Season: Kendall had a very mediocre post-season, batting 0.258 with only 2 BB.

Where he will be in 2007: His price tag alone makes him virtually untouchable, he will be back in Oakland for a final year in 2007, with Jeremy Brown as back up and Kurt Suzuki waiting in the wings.

Next: Pitcher grades

Frank Thomas: A's "cautiously optimistic"

2006-10-26T20:07:00.000-07:00

Via USAToday:

A's general manager Billy Beane spoke to Thomas' agent, Arn Tellem, on Thursday and Tellem said he believes the sides are making strides and that he expected to soon talk again with Beane.

"We continue to talk," Beane said Thursday. "I am cautiously optimistic that both sides have a desire to get something done. We're certainly not there yet, but we've got time. I remain positive."

Hopefully they can get something done, I would hate for Thomas to go somewhere else. Of course, I don't want to give up the farm for him either, if his asking price is too high then let him go - let's not get too excited and forget he will be 39 next year and is one base slide away from injury.

Colorado bench coach Jamie Quirk to interview for manager position

2006-10-26T19:02:00.000-07:00

Looks like there is another candidate in the mix for A's manager:

Quirk, 52, spent 18 seasons as a utility player in the big leagues, including three-plus seasons with Oakland, where he was briefly a teammate of Beane's in 1989. Quirk has been the Rockies' bench coach since October 2002; before that, he was a coach with the Royals for eight years and with the Rangers for one season.

The A's already have scheduled interviews with Angels pitching coach Bud Black, who will talk to the front office early next week, as well as A's bench coach Bob Geren, A's third-base coach Ron Washington and ESPN analyst Orel Hershiser, the former Rangers' pitching coach.

According to the Denver Post, Quirk has a positive attitude and is liked by the players:

Among Rockies' players, Quirk is known for his upbeat personality, those traits can't be overlooked given that Ken Macha was dismissed in Oakland because of a "disconnect" with players, as Beane put it.

Macha was fired just two days after the Detroit Tigers swept the A's in the American League Championship series.

"First of all Jamie is ready for this. I have been around a lot of guys, and he's one of my favorite coaches," said former Rockies third baseman Vinny Castilla, now a special assistant for the team. "He's easy-going, has a good attitude and knows the game."

They also interviewed Quirk who proclaimed himself a player's manager:

I would just try to be myself. I don't want to be the kind of manager - and I'm saying this, but I never managed, so who knows if you'd do it or not when the bottom line came - but I would want to be a player's manager. That's a guy who communicates and talks and can listen and chew up a behind when he needs to. To me, that's a player's manager. A player's manager is someone who a player would actually feel comfortable talking to.

That's great for the players but harder to accomplish when the GM is pulling all the strings and the players know it. It'll be interesting to see what happens if Quirk gets the job.

Hershiser apparently is eager to get a crack at the job:

"I've been in the game a long time and there's very few, if any, relationships between GMs and managers that don't have an edge to them," Hershiser said. "You have very competitive people who have risen to the top of their profession and have opinions that might differ. That usually makes things better.

"You want to be able to say we can debate this, fight like brothers inside, then lock arms outside like a solidified army. That doesn't bother me at all. That almost makes me excited."

----------------------------------------------------------

"I'm very interested in sharing more discussions, and sitting down face to face," Hershiser said. "It will be fun to go through. ...

"It's just an outstanding organization. They've accomplished so much with so little. Now the budget has gone up a little. It's a great young, talented team. It looks like it has a bright future."

From what little information is out there on these guys, here's my take on each of them:

1. Ron Washington - well liked by players and fans alike, he knows baseball and is due for a chance at a manager's position. Claims he knows what is expected of Beane and can handle him.

2. Bob Geren - was bench coach under Macha and is well known as one of Beane's best friends. However, other than being close to Beane he doesn't seem to have any overwhelming pos/neg attributes. Considered a good bet for the next manager.

3. Bud Black - currently the Angels pitching coach. The Angels have a talented pitching staff, but it takes a good coach to keep them competitive and developing. The A's have a number of young developing pitchers, so taking this route might be seen as a positive for our pitching. Would also be a blow to the Angels to lose Black, but the impact of his loss is unknown.

4. Orel Hershiser - previously the Rangers' pitching coach. Not something that looks too good on the resume considering Texas' overall poor pitching but a good portion of that can be blamed on the Rangers' hit friendly ballpark. Again this could be seen as an avenue for developing our young pitchers.

5. Jamie Quirk - currently the bench coach for Colorado. Considers himself a players' manager, whatever that could mean, and apparently is well liked by the players in Colorado. Supposedly has a positive, upbeat attitude, which would be a welcome change from the almost boring Macha.

As I said before, count me in for Ron Washington, joining the popular consensus. He has been working with Beane for years and if he doesn't know how to deal with Beane and understand how things work under Beane by now then he will never know. While he is the clear favorite for fans and players alike, his experience in Oakland - and with Billy Beane - should be taken into consideration. Who would you rather work with you? An experienced guy you have known for years who is popular amongst the staff or an unknown outsider?

The only thing Geren seems to have going for him is being Beane's close friend. That could turn out to haunt him: close friends in a boss-employee relationship don't often remain close friends. Furthermore, his hiring could give the impression to the players that he was only hired because of his friendship with Beane. We'd have the same problem, players who didn't respect their manager. Want to talk about disconnect now?

Black and Hershiser could be brought in as outsiders, reasoning that with so many young pitchers on the team the A's were looking for someone who could really manage the development of the younger players. It also could be a sign that the A's really value pitching and the concentration going forward should be on pitching development. It could also be reasoned that the A's felt they needed to go with a fresh face outside of the organization.

Quirk could also be brought in as an outsider under the same reasoning. But he also could be looked at as someone whom the players might feel comfortable with and at ease talking to. However, he will need to learn to be an organization's manager as opposed to a player's manager and will have to learn to take orders from Beane concerning players, something that the previous two managers both chafed at.

A's grades continued....

2006-10-25T17:23:00.000-07:00

Mark Ellis – 2B – BA 0.249 / OBP 0.319 / SLG 0.385
11 HR / 25 2B / 1 3B / 52 RBI / 40 BB / 76 K
At first glance, and especially compared to last season, Mark Ellis’ numbers look like a disappointment. But let’s take a closer look at his pre and post-All Star splits:
Pre-All Star: BA 0.219 / OBP 0.288 / SLG 0.311 – 3 HR
Post-All Star: BA 0.273 / OBP 0.342 / SLG 0.445 – 8 HR
Also notice that his numbers for 2006 were eerily similar to his 2003 season.
Expecting Ellis to repeat or improve on his unbelievable 2005 numbers, in my mind, was simply delusional. I expected him to do well, better than 2003 but not quite as good as 2005, meeting somewhere between those 2 extremes. I believe his post-All Star numbers paint a fairly good picture of what we can expect from Ellis in the future, provided he doesn’t slump early on in the season: a 0.270-280 / 0.330-0.340 / 0.400-0.440 hitter with low double digit HR and a modest number of walks. Combine that with outstanding defense at 2B and you have one heck of a second baseman. He deserves the gold glove for his defensive work but a weak season at the plate has hurt his chances, despite the fact that offense should have nothing to do with it, a sad truth when it comes to name recognition and popularity.

Overall Grade: B- (A+ for defense, nice improvement in offensive numbers in second half kept him from dropping down to the C range)

Post-Season Notes: Ellis broke his finger in ALDS play and had to sit out the remainder of the post-season relegating 2B duties to the far inferior Jimenez.

Where he will be in 2007: Back as the A’s everyday 2B where I hope he will prove me and other realists wrong and have his best year yet with no injuries.

Jay Payton – OF/Jay Pay – BA 0.296 / OBP 0.325 / SLG 0.418
10 HR / 32 2B / 3 3B / 59 RBI / 22 BB / 52 K
A lot of people point to Jay Pay’s weak OBP and low walk totals as proof that he is the archetypical anti-Beane player and can’t seem to wrap their heads around the fact that the A’s seemed more than willing to pick up Jay Pay’s option for 2006 and that there has been talk of extending him a contract to keep him with the A’s.
Despite Jay Pay’s incredible ability at avoiding walks, too many forget to notice that in addition to avoiding walks Payton also avoids strikeouts. Jay Payton led the A’s in fewest strikeouts (52) for batters with a minimum of 300 at bats. The next batter on the list is Bobby Kielty, who had 3 fewer strikeouts than Payton - with less than half the number of at bats that Payton had (270 compared to 557). Jay Pay is a contact hitter who puts the ball in play, rarely walking, but also rarely striking out. When he is “on” (or lucky as some people might put it) he will hit for high average with some occasional pop. When he is “off” his hits will more likely than not end up in a fielder’s glove or thrown out at first base.
Jay Pay also brings solid, if unspectacular, defense and decent baserunning. He can play all 3 OF positions competently and brings a lot of energy and emotion to the game for a veteran.
While Payton displayed some good gap power with 32 doubles, his HR total suffered from 2005 but was more in line with his career numbers. While Payton, along with too many others, also stumbled in April he is one of the few players to show strong consistency month after month with fewer peaks and valleys.

Overall Grade: B+

Post-Season Notes: Payton carried that consistency into the post-season, batting 0.308 with 2 doubles and a HR.

Where he will be in 2007: I like Payton, but with Kotsay locked up under contract, a superior Bradley likely to stick around, and Kielty as a more than adequate back up look for Payton to end up somewhere else. Although if I were Beane I would take a good hard look at trading Kotsay and keeping Payton. Payton isn’t quite as good in CF but his offense is better than Kotsay’s and he doesn’t have a gimpy back.
Ok, I just realized the mountain of hate I brought onto myself from Kotsay fans with that last comment. Bring it on!

Bobby Crosby – SS/perennial DL favorite – BA 0.229 / OBP 0.298 / SLG 0.338
HR 9 / 12 2B / 36 BB / 76 K
I just don’t get what everyone sees in Crosby. The A’s front office and numerous baseball writers and experts continue to praise Crosby’s talent and make excuses for his continuing failures, telling us to hold out because “any day now” Crosby is going to put everything together and all that talent he supposedly has is going to bust out and make us all believers. Crosby has now been in the show for 3 seasons – he isn’t a rookie anymore- and has yet to display any proof that he has learned to make adjustments or put anything together except for the amazing ability to find new ways of ending up on the DL. He has never had a fully healthy season, has an aggressive, violent swing that is prone to cause injury, has a knack for injuring those around him, and has yet to make any useful adjustments at the major league level. Here is a scouting report from yours truly to every other team in the AL: to get Crosby out just throw outside sliders or changeups for every bat. He’ll swing at almost every pitch and either strikeout or ground out weakly, sometimes into a double play. Don’t worry about those freak hits that manage to get through, he’ll end up injuring his back, or finger, or hamstring running around the bases and if you are lucky will end up injuring another of his fellow players in the process.
Watching Crosby swing dumbly at every outside or off speed pitch this season while nearly coming out of his shoes with his violent swing was just embarrassing and made me want to cover up my Crosby shirt in shame. Sure, he has great range on the infield when he isn’t crashing into something and has flashed some impressive leather from time to time, but even this is not enough to improve his overall image. His lack of playing time at such a young age is very troubling and his stubbornness (or stupidity) in refusing to alter his swing or learn from his mistakes is inexcusable. Unfortunately he is under contract for some time, so unless Beane has a miracle trade (who would want this guy?) we are stuck with him for the time being.
For all you Crosby fans out there – “…any day now, you just wait, he’s a future star…” – I’ll concede he MIGHT have some potential when he is able to play a full season without injury, jack 25-30 HR and strike out less than 100 times.

Overall Grade: F

Post-Season Notes: What post-season? Crosby’s numbers were so bad and had spent so much time on the DL that I think the average fan forgot he was even on the team.

Where he will be in 2007: Unfortunately he will be back at SS for the A’s just long enough to stink up the joint until he can find a way to injure himself so Scutaro can capably take over.

To be continued....

Grading the Team

2006-10-24T20:10:00.000-07:00

Grading the Team

I know it's long in coming, but here are my grades for the 2006 Oakland Athletics. The basis of my analysis is the regular 2006 season. I will add a small blurb about their post-season performance (or lack thereof) and also give my thoughts on where they will be headed in 2007. Without further ado:

Hitters:

Frank Thomas – DH – BA 0.270 / OBP 0.381 / SLG 0.545 / OPS 0.926
39 HR / 11 2B / 114 RBI / 81 BB / 81 K
How The Big Hurt failed to make comeback player of the year is beyond me. Here is a guy who was turning 38 and had been cut loose from his former team after 2 injury plagued seasons limited him to a handful of games, despite playing for the same team his entire career. The fact that the A's were able to pick him up for a measly $500k + incentives says something about the lack of interest in Thomas from other teams. I clearly remember at the time numerous "experts" expressing skepticism in the deal, although most admitted that a healthy Thomas could provide the A's offense with some much needed pop, but nobody thought he would be healthy enough to do any damage. Even I have to admit that while I was excited about this move I thought we would be lucky to get 300+ at bats out of Thomas with 15 HR or so. Thomas started off slowly but once he got back into the swing of things he was back to his old self again and was a big reason the A's made the playoffs.
Pre-All Star : BA 0.238 / OBP 0.367 / SLG 0.523 / OPS 0.890 / 19 HR
Post-All Star : BA 0.298 / OBP 0.393 / SLG 0.563 / OPS 0.956 / 20 HR

Overall grade : A+

Post-Season Notes: After going 5-for-10 with 2 HR in the ALDS against Minnesota, The Big Hurt went hitless against the Detroit Tigers in the ALCS.

Where will he be in 2007: My guess is he will be returning as the A's DH with a 2-year contract and club option for 2009.

Nick Swisher – 1B/OF – BA 0.254 / OBP 0.372 / SLG 0.493 / OPS 0.865
35 HR / 24 2B / 2 3B / 95 RBI / 97 BB / 152 K
Nick Swisher improved on his rookie season numbers and started hot out of the gate only to revert to the norm. Actually, in looking at his season numbers, he pretty much did what I projected him to do. Take a look at his career minor league numbers:
BA 0.261 / OBP 0.381 / SLG 0.476 / OPS 0.857 – 222 BB vs 300 K
Swisher, to me, projects as a 0.250-0.260 hitter with some pop who manages to get on base at an above average rate thanks to his walk totals.
As in last year he showed a propensity for striking out but at the same time also improved his walk total from 55 to 97. I don't like strikeouts any more than the next guy but if you can also rack up a fair number of walks it takes away some of the negativity. Swisher was all over the place offensively and can thank an incredible April and strong May for boosting his overall season numbers:
April – 0.313 / 0.404 / 0.738 – 10 HR
May – 0.299 / 0.409 / 0.551 – 6 HR
June – 0.204 / 0.342 / 0.337 – 3 HR
July – 0.188 / 0.310 / 0.306 – 3 HR
Aug – 0.237 / 0.321 / 0.464 – 6 HR
Sep – 0.294 / 0.450 / 0.612 – 7 HR
June and July he was just terrible while in Aug he played close to his career numbers and then he took off again in Sep. One thing I noted though is that his OBP never suffered – at no time did his OBP fall below 0.300, even when batting only 0.188 in July, and in most cases his OBP was about 100 points higher than his BA. If Swisher can cut back on the strikeouts while maintaining his patience and power, he could be a truly fearsome hitter. But he will have to improve his BA with RISP : 0.190. Swisher split time between the OF and 1B and did a fair job defensively at both, although he seemed a better fit at 1B.

Overall grade : B+

Post-Season Notes: Swisher didn't do much, going 4-for-20 with a couple of 2B and no HR. He did manage 7 BB though.

Where will he be in 2007: Splitting time again between 1B and the OF, Swisher may get a long term contract signed during the winter that will lock him in through his arbitration years.

Eric Chavez – 3B/Walking Wounded – BA 0.241 / OBP 0.351 / SLG 0.435 / OPS 0.786
22 HR / 24 2B / 2 3B / 72 RBI / 84 BB / 100 K
This was supposed to be the year that Chavez proved all the skeptics wrong after his hot start in April when he clubbed 9 HR with a 0.301 BA. Unfortunately a multitude of injuries hobbled Chavez throughout the season, severely depleting his offensive abilities and ending up overshadowed by Swisher and Thomas. Luckily his defense was top notch, despite the injuries, and he should be a strong choice for yet another gold glove. However, the injuries and weak offensive numbers troubled a number of impatient fans still waiting for that so-called "breakout season" that will make Chavez's expense worthwhile. Personally I am perfectly content just to have a healthy Chavez with top-notch defense at the corner with 25-30 HR along with a 0.270 BA and a decent OBP. Which is exactly what we have been getting and what I think we can count on getting in the future, except possibly for the healthy part. Is that worth $11 million dollars a year? That's for you to decide, personally I am ok with it hoping that the occasional plus offensive year will get thrown into the mix of normal years for Chavez.
While at times Chavez looked lost at the plate, I really don't think it was nearly as bad a year as some people thought – definitely he could and should do better healthy, but considering he played injured almost the entire season I thought he did quite well. Thanks to higher walk totals (84 compared to 58) his OPS was only 9 points lower than in 2005. Sure, his BA was way off, but OPS is a much better indicator of a player's offensive impact than simply looking at BA. It makes me wonder what the year would have looked like had he been healthy. To get a possible glimpse of what that could have been like, take a look at his April and Sep months:
April – BA 0.301 / OBP 0.392 / SLG 0.687 – 9 HR
Sep - BA 0.243 / OBP 0.352 / SLG 0.568 – 6 HR
While his Sep BA was still low, it was a marked improvement from the previous 3 months. April and Sep accounted for 15 of his 22 HR – he hit only 1 HR in both July and Aug and only 2 in June. Had he remained healthy this could have been his best year yet.

Overall grade : B (he gets a boost for effort)

Post-Season Notes: While he only hit 0.217 with 5 hits, 4 of those hits were for extra bases (2 doubles and 2 HR). However, his defense at times was troubling, very un-Chavez like, and most likely could be attributed to injuries.

Where will he be in 2007: Chavez of course is under contract and the gold glover will be back at 3B. However, look for some 3B relief to join the A's in case Chavez once again is saddled with injury. Even Chavez admitted he probably should have gone on the DL at some point earlier in the season. Barring injury, he should bounce back nicely.

Milton Bradley – OF/Firecracker – BA 0.276 / OBP 0.370 / SLG 0.447 / OPS 0.817
14 HR / 14 2B / 2 3B / 52 RBI / 51 BB / 65 K
Milton Bradley was a great pick up by Beane. Sure, we gave up a good prospect, but as I remarked at the time getting 2 solid major league players (well, 1 and ¼ considering Perez's horrid year) for a minor league prospect was well worth it. Once again this was a risky move by Beane considering Bradley's penchant for getting injured and Perez's relative youth and inexperience. Still, when healthy, Bradley was a real middle-of-the-order threat with excellent defense. Having 5 OF to back up in case of injuries made the risk that much easier to take. Bradley also had a reputation for a fiery temper and for getting into trouble with umpires and teammates, but except for one instance where Macha had to physically restrain him, Bradley behaved comparatively well.
Once again Bradley landed on the DL for part of the season but came back with a bang in July, had a weak Aug, and finished the season strongly in Sep. Bradley showed patience and a good knowledge of the strike zone along with some pop and heck, even stole 10 bases, almost unheard of for an A's player. His fiery emotion was a welcome addition to the clubhouse, in my opinion, something unseen since the days of Miggy.

Overall grade : B+

Post-Season Notes: Milton carried the team in the post-season with a 0.323 BA, 2 doubles, and 3 HR. Alas, it wasn't enough as the rest of the team sucked just enough to get swept by the Tigers.

To be continued…..

"...the door was always open..."

2006-10-23T19:12:00.000-07:00

Managers always like to tell people that their "door is always open" when in fact it takes two to tango. Part of management 101 is communication, communication, communication, but just leaving your door open is only part of the process - sometimes you need to "manage by walking", get out of the office and talk to people on their own turf or outside of the standard boundaries of the organization. Some people need to be shown where the door is and how to open it.

Just telling people that your door is always open only means that you are waiting for them to initiate the conversation. While it's a good gesture and meant to imply that your employees should feel comfortable and welcome in approaching their manager with an issue, you aren't going to be an effective manager just going through the motions while sitting in your office, disconnected with what is going on around you. In each case quoted in this article - Kielty, Payton, Bradley - the players came to him, not the other way around. A manager perceived as aloof or uninterested in what's going on "in the trenches" is a manager that will NOT be approached regularly by employees or seen as the solution to their problems.

Macha mentions that he had 6 coaches and he never heard of any "undercurrent going on" with the players. A good manager would have known without even speaking to his coaches that there was a problem with a player or players. Good managers know because they have the pulse of their employees. Although a good manager will often seek the opinion and insight of other supervisors and management in relation to his employees, he should not have to rely only on them to be alerted of any problems or difficulties.

Again, in the case of Kotsay and his bad back, Macha indicated he had no idea the outfielder was upset at his comments and again put the burden of communication on his players:

If Kotsay was really disturbed by that comment, he could have come in and said so.

A manager in tune with his employees would have sensed a problem earlier on and approached the employee with an invitation to resolve the issue.

It's obvious that Macha and Beane didn't get along and possible that Beane treated Macha poorly while in Oakland. It's also obvious that some of the players did not care for Macha. But to me the real reason he was fired is quite simple: Macha was simply not a good manager. And when I say manager I mean a manager of people, not the game.

Dirty Laundry

2006-10-23T19:02:00.000-07:00

Baseball Prospectus has a great rundown of all the quotes running around regarding the A's and Macha airing their dirty laundry for all to see. Click here for all the quotes, some I had heard already, others were new for me. What an ugly divorce......

Bye bye Jimenez

2006-10-23T18:56:00.000-07:00

No big deal:

Jimenez was signed by the A's to a minor league contract on June 23 after he was released by Texas and hit .071 (1 for 14) in eight games over three stints with Oakland. He batted .211 with a home run and eight RBI in 20 games with the Rangers for a .183 batting average in 28 games overall. Jimenez also started the A's last five postseason games at second base following the injury to Mark Ellis and was 2 for 16 (.125) in six postseason games.

The Pastime's season review

2006-10-21T23:20:00.000-07:00

Ryan Armbrust posts his A's season review which is chock full of statistical goodies:

On the A's win/loss total and winning percentage:

Yes, I know the concept of “wasting runs” is ridiculous, but what I mean is
that when the A's scored, they usually just happened to score enough to win.
They had few blowout wins, and played most teams rather closely. No less than
107 of the games that the A's played were decided by 3 runs or less.

Adding to that effect was that the A's, when they did give up runs, gave up
a lot of them. They gave up more than six runs just 34 times this season, but in
those 34 games they gave up an average of 8.88 runs. They gave up 42% of their
runs in only 21% of the games. In the other 128 games they played, the A's only
allowed 3.32 runs per game.

Let's examine games that would be consider blowouts, where runs would be
“wasted”. There were 18 games that the A's lost by 6 runs or more, and 14 that
they won by 6 runs or more. Over those 32 games, Oakland scored 137 runs and
allowed 174. They went 14-18 in those “blowouts”, a reasonable record for having
a run differential of -37, over a run a game.

If, for argument's sake, you removed those games, Oakland's expected
winning percentage (with a new RS-RA of 634-553) would jump from .528 to .560,
much closer to the actual winning percentage of .574.

Of course, that all smacks of cherry-picking the stats, but I think it's
nevertheless interesting to dig into.

On Mark Ellis and Eric Chavez:

In 632 total chances, Mark Ellis only made two errors. That sets the record
for highest fielding percentage by a second baseman at .997, and should win
Ellis a well-deserved Gold Glove.

Eric Chavez developed tendonitis in both forearms, limiting him to his
worst statistical season at the plate since his rookie year, but he had perhaps
the best defensive season of his career. He made just 5 errors, fielded .987,
and turned 43 double plays. He led all third baseman in those categories, and
should be in line for a sixth consecutive Gold Glove.

I would also point out that the hobbled and injured Chavez still managed to post an OBP of 0.351 with a mediocre BA of only 0.241. He worked 84 walks, second highest of his career, and still managed to smack 22 HR with an OPS of 0.786 - only 8 points lower than in 2005, which still left him ranked 4th on the team leaving only Bradley, Swisher, and Thomas with higher OPS than Chavez. Not too shabby for the walking wounded.

On Huston Street

Some would say they were taken by surprise at Huston Street's mediocre
season. Well, mediocre by the expectations they placed on him after his stellar
2005 rookie campaign. They expected a closer who would put up sub-2.00 ERA
seasons with a 9.0+ K/9 rate and 40 saves a year for the next 20 years. Street
was just 22 years old this season. He had a decent year, 3.31 ERA and 37 saves.
Yes, he blew a few too many save opportunities, but he pitched extremely well
for a kid in his second full year in the majors. After all, he was pitching in
the College World Series only 30 months ago.

Thank you for pointing this out. A little tired of all the Street haters during the last month of the season and in the post-season, where he pitched just a little too much for my liking. This kid is only in the second season of his career and still managed 37 saves with a 3.31 ERA. Yeah, he blew a few and some of them were a bit nerve-wracking, but to expect a repeat of last year I think was just a bit too unrealistic. I think he did a fine job and is still learning to develop as a major league closer.

I've been busy, but will post my review later as well as grade all the players.

Let the mudslinging begin!

2006-10-21T23:03:00.000-07:00

Macha finally speaks up:

Macha cited two postseason incidents involving what he perceived as a
dispute with Beane.

-- According to Macha, Beane wanted Bobby Kielty to start against
left-handers, as had been the case in the final weeks of the regular season. But
Macha started Kotsay against Johan Santana of Minnesota and Nate Robertson and
Kenny Rogers of Detroit.

Come on Macha. That's just dumb. Everyone and their brother were scratching their heads wondering why Kielty didn't get EVEN ONE START against those left handed pitchers. Everyone knows Kielty mashes lefties, and yet you let Kotsay start all those games because.....well because if you didn't Kotsay would whine about playing time. When the ALCS is on the line you don't worry about hurting players' feelings regarding playing time. You do everything you can to win. Period. But at least we know this was one more straw on the camel's back in Beane's book.

-- Macha said he wanted 14-game winner Dan Haren to start Game 3 against
the Tigers in the American League Championship Series and be available for a
possible Game 7. But Rich Harden, who was injured most of the season, was picked
to start Game 3. It was Beane's call, said Macha, who went along with the
decision.

In retrospect it didn't matter because they both lost. But either way Harden was going to pitch. This one just isn't that huge of a deal to me, but as you can see Macha didn't like taking orders from Beane. Message to all future A's managers: you want to manage, better listen to Beane.

Macha was fired because of what Beane described as a "disconnect on several
levels," and five players -- Kotsay, Haren, Jason Kendall, Eric Chavez and Barry
Zito -- made unfavorable comments about Macha in Tuesday's Chronicle. Kotsay
said he felt "disrespected" that Macha seemingly questioned why he wasn't
playing a road game when the team was off the day before.
Kotsay, who
battled a bad back during the season, also said the A's "didn't play" for Macha
and rallied among themselves, adding Macha "didn't have my back."

"Billy wanted Kielty in the postseason, and I play Kotsay, and then Kotsay
comes out and says bad things about me while I basically got fired because I
played him," Macha said. "It's kind of sad."

"That's one instance," Macha added, "but it happened a lot."

No, you didn't get fired because you played him, that was just one of several bone headed decisions. You got fired because you and your boss didn't get along. Period. And that's not to say it was all your fault either. It's obvious Beane can be pretty heavy-handed about what he wants and obviously didn't care much for Macha.

Macha Beane moment via Tim Kawakami @ The Mercury blog

2006-10-21T10:42:00.000-07:00

broncobert over at Athletics Nation just posted a diary linking to this extraordinary Macha-Beane moment remembered by Tim Kawakami of the Mercury News:

Where did we go for the talk? Billy zipped right into Macha’s office, which
was empty for the time being, plopped down and started eating.

Looked at me, said, “Go ahead, ask.” Usually, everybody stays
out of the manager’s office, by the way, unless the manager is there and
is fine with it. Not the A’s way, though.

I started asking, but a few minutes later Macha and Curt
Young came back, with plates of food and just in their underwear, obviously
looking to eat, change clothes and relax.

They stared at us, I stared at them, Billy just kept eating and
talking.

Macha tenatively sat down behind his desk for a few seconds. Very
uncomfortable. Shot another glance at Beane. Glared at me. I shrugged, said
to Beane, “Umm, maybe we should do this somewhere
else.”

Beane looked up like this was the first he’d noticed Macha was there–or
cared that he was there–dropped his plate, then just waved at Macha, pointing
him out the door. Remember, this was Macha’s own office. After winning
for something like the 33rd time in 40 games.

“Ken, you can let us do this, right?” Beane said as he
waved. Beane turned back to me and never looked at Macha again
as Macha and Young sighed, got up, and moved out.

I think Beane is a great manager but that is just plain rude. If he really felt this little about Macha - or any manager for that matter - it's no wonder Macha had a "disconnect" with the front office.

Bud Black to Interview for A's manager

2006-10-21T10:39:00.000-07:00

One of the outside names to be considered for the new A's manager has been Bud Black, the pitching coach for the Angels. He has received permission from the Angels to interview with the A's:

Black, 49, interviewed for the Giants' manager job earlier in the week. He
has spent the past seven seasons as the Angels' pitching coach and before that
worked as a special assistant to then-Indians GM John Hart.

Black, a left-hander, pitched for 15 years, including four with the Giants
(1991-94). Under Black, the Angels have had one of the top pitching
staffs.

Another way of looking at the A's offense

2006-10-18T21:59:00.000-07:00

Ryan Armbrust over at The Pastime has come up with an interesting way of looking at the A's offense this season that makes for easy comparison of the A's hitters and how they compared to each other and the league average. Head on over to his site here and click on the pic to enlarge. Be sure to read his explanation for what the various colors and lines represent so it all makes sense.

I was mildly surprised to find that Chavez, despite playing injured almost all season long, still had an above average offensive season when compared to the rest of the league. While his BA was below league average, his OBP was higher and his SLG just about met the average, putting his OPS slightly above that of the league average. So if this is the worst we can expect from an injured Chavez, I think I'll take it.

As can be easily deduced Swisher and Thomas were the big performers with OBP, SLG, and OPS far above average. Milton Bradley also fared well above average. However it's also telling how many players OPS were well below average.

Anyways, take a look, it's quite interesting.

Still time for Washington

2006-10-18T21:46:00.000-07:00

While the A's are in no hurry to replace Macha, Washington still has time, despite already interviewing for the Rangers job. The Rangers still have 4 other candidates to interview, some of which are in the middle of the post-season, so it could very well be November before a firm decision is made. That's not much time, but could be enough to at least give Washington a chance to interview for the A's position.

Mulder and Lilly? Keep dreamin'

2006-10-18T20:33:00.000-07:00

Athletics Nation and Susan Slusser are openly speculating on who will replace Zito once he leaves during the off-season. Their speculation points to 2 old A's lefties: Mulder and Lilly. To which I say: keep dreamin'.

Ted Lilly is sure to attract some serious interest on the free agent market and will almost assuredly fetch a higher price than the A's are willing to pay, particularly looking at the free agent pitching signings over the last 2 off-seasons. Mulder is coming off of shoulder surgery which means he will most likely not be ready to start the 2007 season. Even if he can or when he eventually does join the rotation, it will take considerable time to get his arm back up to strength and even then it will take time to get back in the rhythm of major league pitching. And he is still enough of a name to attract some interest in the free agent market, particularly teams willing to offer a longer term deal knowing that the first season he pitches for them could be a throwaway considering his injury and surgery. I don't see Billy Beane making a move for Mulder unless he senses that there is little interest in Mulder and can convince Mulder to sign a 1-2 year incentive laden deal.

The far more likely route, and one that is typical A's, is to promote and develop from within. The A's already have 2 lefties in their bullpen that traditionally have been starters: Brad Halsey and Joe Kennedy.

While I wasn't too impressed with Brad Halsey as either a starter or in the bullpen, he is still young. He will be 26 next season with only 3 years of major league experience, and his first season he pitched only 32 innings. He had mixed results with Arizona as a full time starter, but his numbers weren't much different than he had here in Oakland. While I didn't see too much that impressed me, there is always the chance he improves with further experience. He's also still several years away from his arbitration years which basically means he's cheap, and the A's love a good bargain.

More expensive but coming off of a solid year, despite the injury, is Joe Kennedy. He pitched excellent coming out of the bullpen which may have reduced his value as a starter. Performing so well out of the bullpen may have sealed his fate there. However, things could change with Zito leaving and a spot open for a lefty starter. Kennedy has more experience, but that experience as a starter has been spotty at best.

I don't know if Halsey or Kennedy will make the rotation, but they certainly are more realistic options than Mulder or Lilly.

And don't forget Dan Meyer, the once touted prospect from the Hudson trade. He has had shoulder problems 2 years running now, but if and when he can get back to full health he just might return to the player the A's knew he could be when they traded for him. The A's might be gambling for a Meyer return, if so then they would only need a fill-in for 1-2 seasons while Meyer returns to full strength, perhaps getting a call up in late 2007 or 2008. But this is just wild speculation, time will tell what the A's really think of Meyer.

Fill in the blank

2006-10-17T22:40:00.000-07:00

The next manager of the Oakland Athletics will be ......... ?

Now that Macha is gone the media and fans alike are buzzing about who will replace Macha. From reading the many reports and commentary out there it sounds as if no one will miss Macha too much.

I'll admit I was a little surprised - a little, not a lot - when I heard that Macha was let go, but of course at the time I had not yet had a chance to read the news for myself and see the reasons he was fired. I can't say I'll miss him too terribly, but I also can't say that I am thrilled to see him go. And I think that is one of the problems with Macha - he just doesn't effect a lot of emotion in people. Most people I know don't really hate or dislike him, nor do they particularly like or love him - they just simply shrug their shoulders - nobody really cares for the man. I can't speak for the players, but perhaps that indifference, that don't-rock-the-boat, steady-as-she-goes attitude just left everyone feeling like he didn't really matter one way or the other.

I never felt he was a great manager and have been particularly critical of his management of the bullpen. But I never felt he was a particular bad manager. I think he did the best he could with the number of injuries he had to deal with this year and did what he does best - kept the ship floating and moving ahead and managed to keep the rocking to a minimum. But while that may work in the long run during a 162 game season, it means jack in the post-season when you need to get fired up and make some tough decisions that could mean sink or swim in some turbulent seas. In fact, one of the things that really bothered me in the post-season was Macha's seeming indifference to everything going on around him. It's one thing to see Macha's calm, passive self during the regular season sitting in the dugout while the game implodes around him, nary an expression of emotion on his blunt face. It's another thing entirely when you are in the middle of blowing the ALCS and you can't seem to conjour up any emotion or fire. Again I can't speak for the players, but perhaps they found it tough to get inspired against the Tigers when their admiral had no inspiration or spirit to give.

So Macha is gone and most either don't care or say "good riddance". Now discussion turns to who will replace Macha. The front office has a tradition of promoting from within, so the possible candidates include fan and media favorite Ron Washington, Beane's trusted friend Bob Geren, and Rene Lachemann.

Ray Ratto of the Chronicle says Ron Washington is the best choice.

Scott Ostler, also of the Chronicle, says firing Macha was the right thing to do and also echoes Washington as the right choice.

Both Killion and Kawakam i of the Mercury News don't miss Macha, with Killion claiming that the "...players didn't care for him..." and Kawakami stating the obvious: that the real force behind the A's is Beane and not the on-field manager, and that the players know it.

Eric Gilmore of the Contra Costa Times isn't shocked either.

Blez seems to agree, stating that the manager isn't all that important, and speculates that Bob Geren is possibly the early favorite to take Macha's place.

Catfish Stew laughs out loud at the suggestion that Dusty Baker would be a good candidate for the A's. I almost spewed diet Dr. Pepper all over my keyboard when I read that as well.

Elephants, a longtime Macha critic, says Macha was done sometime around the middle of the 2003 season.

Barry Zito Forever (up for a name change once Zito gets that big paycheck somewhere else) is more worried about re-signing Zito (keep dreaming) than the future Oakland manager.

Oakland A's Days are ready for someone new.

I'll join the growing chorus in calling for Ron Washington as the new manager, but I have a hunch it will be Geren. Washington deserves a shot at a manager's job and may have to go outside Oakland to get it. Geren is one of Beane's best friends and is the current bench coach, a position Macha held for some time before assuming the reigns. I have no idea how well Geren gels with the players but Ron Washington appears to be universally beloved by players and fans alike. It would be a shame if he didn't get the job, and if not we may be seeing him managing for a rival team.

Macha Out

2006-10-17T01:25:00.000-07:00

I meant to post on this yesterday but by the time I managed to find some time to sit down at my computer it was too late and I was too tired to comment.

As you are probably already aware, Macha is out:

Two days after the A's were eliminated from the postseason, Ken Macha was fired as the team's manager, because of what general manager Billy Beane described as "a disconnect on several levels.''
Though Beane was careful not to spell out that disconnect, emphasizing during a news conference Monday that he alone was responsible for Macha's ouster, the primary reason the team parted ways with a man with the second-highest winning percentage in Oakland history was that a growing number of players had issues with Macha.

From the same article, Susan Slusser quotes a number of suddenly vocal A's players expressing displeasure or at least admitting there was a problem. Surprisingly the most critical player appeared to be Kotsay, who claimed that players "...didn't have the same feeling about the manager as they did at the start of the year..." and that he felt "...disrespected..." when Macha questioned his injury. Most damning of all Kotsay stated "...we didn't play for him." Zito, Kendall, and Haren all sounded off negatively on Macha. But I think Chavez summed it up perfectly:

"Deep down inside, I think he cared about the players, he just didn't have a good way of communicating."

To quote my father, Management 101: Communicate, communicate, communicate - back your people, and let them know you back them.

A manager's greatest duty is to manage people and relationships - it seems from reading these reports that Macha failed in that respect.

Welcome to the off-season

2006-10-15T08:02:00.000-07:00

Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately, depending on how you look at it) I missed the A's disappointing last game in the ALCS on Saturday. I was in Sacramento visiting relatives. Since none of them are baseball fans I was unable to catch the game, although I did manage to catch the score in the 9th inning on my Blackberry - 3-to-3. I thought at the time that the A's just might have a chance if they could get into extra innings. They seem to do well in extra innings games.

Unfortunately luck was not with the A's as Huston Street gave up 2 singles and the game winning HR. I was pretty upset at Street until I realized later, after coming home, that Macha had put Street in during the.....7th inning???? What the heck was Macha thinking?

Anyways, I had high hopes for the A's after their dramatic sweep of The Twins, the team I feared most going into the playoffs and who I felt had the best chance of killing the A's. But the A's fell flat on their faces in the ALCS. Poor starts from Zito and Loaiza didn't help, but the A's offense was non-existent as well. It was nice to see Bradley shine, unfortunately he did all the shining. I know some people are upset that Frank Thomas failed to get a single hit, but he was outstanding vs. Minnesota and if it weren't for Frank the A's possibly wouldn't have made the post-season anyways.

So the A's finally managed to get past the first round only to find themselves quickly swept by Detroit and quickly into off-season mode. I will post my season review of the A's and key players when I get some free time. It's been a pretty glum ALCS but quite and exciting 2006.

Rogers continues domination of A's

2006-10-13T18:08:00.000-07:00

Once again Rogers dominates the A's in the third win by the Detroit Tigers in this ALCS.

Rogers, who brought a 21-7 career record against the A's into Game 3 and hasn't lost to them since September 2004, made 7 1/3 innings of two-hit work look easy while leading the Tigers to the brink of their first World Series appearance since 1984.

The A's have been playing from behind every single game. Macha's horrible management of his pitching staff through the first 2 games will come back to haunt the A's should they lose this series. Macha's laid back, steady-as-she-goes management style may work in a long 162-game season but it's worth jack in the playoffs. All year long he has consistently left starters in way too long and long after they got into trouble. He takes too long to get his bullpen warmed up and sometimes brings them in when it is already too late.

Haren is pitching a must-win tomorrow and has not looked too good throughout Sept/Oct. In his ALDS appearance vs The Twins he allowed 9 hits, a walk, 1 HR, and 2 earned runs over 6 innings. He got lucky. He also is sporting a 5.80 ERA for Sept/Oct so far with 7 HR allowed in just 35 innings. He needs to pitch like he did in May and June or get lucky like he did with The Twins to avoid any damage and salvage a win.

As to the offense, the middle of the order better get cranking tomorrow. Thomas and Swisher are both hitless in this series and Chavez has a measly 0.200 BA.

Blog Commentary:
Blez is trying to stay positive with a pretty realistic take on things.

Elephants offers up some harsh analysis on Chavez.

Catfish Stew refuses surrender.

The Pastime is already prepared to write his season-in-review and start the countdown for spring training.

A's down 2-0 : Not looking too good

2006-10-11T21:52:00.000-07:00

Street came into the 9th in a non-close situation and still gave up a HR. Like Loaiza, he too has been struggling with a mix of good and bad outings throughout September and on into the post-season. He may get the saves, but you'll have white knuckles watching him.

Blez spins things on a positive note, noting the explosive offense of Milton Bradley, but aside from Bradley nobody else did anything. Ok, so I almost overlooked the fact that Chavez hit a solo-HR in the 6th, but aside from that the A's middle of the order was unable to do any damage or get guys around the bases. At least they got to Verlander.

Next stop is Detroit and famed A's assassin Kenny Rogers. I feel confident with Harden on the mound, even with his last wild outing, and hope that he can keep the Tigers hitters off-balance and flailing. Harden will need to shut down the Tigers and the A's offense will have to find a way to eek out a couple of runs against Rogers.

It's not over yet, but that hill is starting to look awfully steep. If the A's can avoid grounding into double plays, hit just marginally better with runners in scoring position, and get at least average production from their middle of the order, then they should do just fine for games 3 and 4.

ALCS Game 2: Quick Commentary

2006-10-11T19:50:00.000-07:00

The good news: Milton Bradley is on f-i-r-e going 3 for 4 with 2 HR and responsible for 4 of the 5 A's RBIs.

The bad news: Another poor start from an A's starter but not too surprising coming from Loaiza. Everyone points to his incredible August where he really turned things around, but he was hot and cold in September and had a 5.11 ERA for Sept/Oct coming into this game.

The surprise: That Loaiza was left in for so long. Throughout the season Macha has shown a stubbornness to pull his starting pitchers when they run into significant trouble. It is not surprising to see a pitcher give up 3-4 runs in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th inning and then see them right back on the mound the following inning. Macha needs to improve his management of the pitching staff or risk blowing the ALCS, already well on his way.

Problem spots: The entire middle of the order. Thomas, Chavez, Payton, and Swisher have been dismal tonight. Thomas has yet to get a hit in the ALCS and Chavez at times has looked ridiculous at the plate. Swisher appears too eager, wanting to swing for the fences, he needs to settle down and take his pitches. Payton had a good night last night, but so far has done nothing. If the heart of the order can't move runners around the bases, then you have a big problem.

Well, it's bottom of the 8th, Chavez and Payton both struck out swinging and the score is 7 to 5. Hopefully Bradley can single handedly save the night over the next 2 innings or it is going to be a long, thoughtful trip to Detroit.

BREAKING: Ex-A's pitcher Cory Lidle dies in accidental NYC plane crash

2006-10-11T15:32:00.000-07:00

In a scene that brought back memories of 9/11, a plane crashed into a luxury high rise apartment building today in Manhattan. As tensions have calmed and experts have had a chance to investigate, all evidence points to an accident. The plane involved was a small 4-seat single-wing aircraft.

Cory Lidle, who has a pilot's license, was confirmed aboard the plane, and is believed to have been the pilot.

He was only 34 years old.

Cory Lidle was a starting pitcher for the A's back in 2001 and 2002 and pitched for the A's in the post-season, and most recently had been pitching with the Yankees.

I have been following the news of the crash all day, but was schocked just now to find out that Cory Lidle was onboard the plane.

Detroit didn't win - the A's beat themselves

2006-10-10T21:01:00.000-07:00

I'm never happy when the A's lose, but to lose like this is just unacceptable. It would have been different if they had lost 5 to 1 with no walks and only a handful of hits. Sure, the loss would have sucked, but man those Detroit pitchers really shut down the A's, they pitched their hearts out.

But no. Not only did the A's lose 5 to 1, they did it in gut wrenching fashion. They rocked Nate Robertson for 6 hits and worked 3 walks with runners on base every inning - and got none of them home. They hit into 2 inning ending double plays and then with runners on second and third with NOBODY OUT Robertson strikes out three in a row.

But that's not all folks. The A's managed a hit against every Detroit pitcher faced except Jones and had 2 runners on the bases in 5 out of the 9 innings.

Even with Zito's disastrous third and fourth innings the A's should have won, and won handily. Grounding into 4 double plays and going something like 0 for 12 with runners in scoring pitching is a pathetic way to lose a game.

Detroit didn't win the game. The A's had numerous chances to take advantage and come back with a win and they blew it. The A's beat themselves, Detroit had nothing to do with it.

The A's still need to face Rogers, twice if it goes to game 7 and on game 7 Rogers will be pitching in his most favorable setting - the Oakland coliseum. If it goes to 7 games and the A's lose against Rogers, this first game will come back to haunt them.

Lucky break? Detroit to hold back Rogers until game 3

2006-10-09T23:00:00.000-07:00

Via Yahoo! Sports:

Rogers has dominated in Oakland -- both for and against the Athletics. He is 25-4 in his career in Oakland and 23-1 in 41 starts at the Coliseum since 1995, including two wins this season.
Rogers leads active pitchers with 21 victories against the A's, the team he pitched for from 1998-99.
"We considered that very strongly, but at the same time we felt like the effort against the Yankees was such a draining effort that we decided to give him the time," Leyland said Monday on the eve of the ALCS opener. "That's why the decision was made. And at the same time, if by chance the series would go seven games, he would be able to pitch Game 3 and then Game 7 in Oakland. That's why we did it."

Some may call me paranoid, but I have watched Rogers pitch in Oakland for quite a few years now and trust me, he just dominates. I appreciate some of the newer players in Oakland expressing their confidence in playing against Rogers in Oakland, but it sure hasn't mattered when we had fresh faces in the past, for the most part Kenny just does what he does in Oakland.

Time will tell, but this could be the lucky break the A's need as they start out the gate. If they can take advantage of the fact that they don't have to face Rogers until game 3 and win these first two then I believe they will have a very good chance to win at least 2 more before it comes to a deciding game 7 in Oakland vs. Mr. Rogers. If the A's take 4 from Detroit before reaching Rogers the second time around, this could end up being a decision that haunts the Tigers.

Meanwhile I have been having a hard time finding any "experts" who have picked the A's to win the ALCS. Once again the A's are underdogs as the mass media continues to underestimate them, which is fine by me. And if they win the ALCS I can guarantee that once again almost no one will pick them to win the World Series. So c'mon guys, prove these losers wrong and shove their worthless predictions where the sun don't shine - take it all the way!!

A look at the ALCS

2006-10-08T18:56:00.000-07:00

After weeks of enduring endless reporters' questions and columns on how the A's haven't clinched a post-season series since man invented the wheel, they finally put them to rest with a handy sweep of the Twins. I bet guys like The Big Hurt, Huston Street, Jason Kendall, and Mark Kotsay were more than a little annoyed with reporters' questions - considering none of them were around for the last time the A's made the post-season.

I gotta admit, I thought the first round was going to be a lot tougher. The Minnesota Twins, normally, are A's killers. Cuddyer and Morneau just kill the A's and I fully expected to see Santana twice if it went to game 5. Going into Minnesota I thought "if they can win 1-out-of-2 in Minnesota then we just might have a chance". I was happily surprised that they beat Santana and then went on to win 2 more.

On Friday my office had the game on the TV in the lunch room. We couldn't hang out in the lunchroom all day, but let's just say a lot of people felt frequent urges for a fresh cup of coffee or glass of water or felt like they needed to check out the vending machines, because there were always a few people hanging out in front of the TV for a few minutes at a team, myself included. After the bottom of the 9th my co-worker and I went to the lunchroom to watch the 9th and there must have been 20 people in there. After the final out the lunchroom burst into applause and cheers, and I overheard more than a couple of "thank God they made it past the first round".

On to the ALCS. I was equally surprised to see the Yankees collapse against the Tigers. I always felt the Tigers had a chance and from day one had remarked on the Yankees weaker pitching, but that is one scary lineup. I thought for sure the Yankees would give Detroit a harder time, but never did I think they would implode like that. The Tigers pitching was just brilliant, especially Kenny Rogers.

Now the A's will be facing Detroit to see who will go to the World Series. A's fans, this ain't gonna be easy. The A's will have to face Kenny Rogers at least twice in a 7 game series. For those of you who don't know, Kenny Rogers OWNS the A's. I can't explain it, but he just does. The man is 25-4 when pitching in the Oakland coliseum and has beaten the A's more than any other team, 21-7 (I think - correct me if I am wrong). Even this year he won both games he pitched against the A's, although he did have a bloated 4-point-something ERA over those 2 games. From what I saw against the Yankees, he will be on the top of his game.

But it's not just Rogers the A's need to worry about. Justin Verlander has been good all year, even though he got roughed up a bit at the end, but he pitched excellent against the Yankees. Don't forget former A's farmhand Bonderman either. The A's will have a tough hill to climb against the Tigers.

Luckily the A's begin this series at home and let's just hope they can maintain the momentum. Zito will be pitching game one and hopefully will be on his game like he was against Santana. I'm a bit nervous about Loaiza in game 2, although he pitched well enough against The Twins. But the last few weeks of the season he had a couple of bad outings. Haren makes me nervous. He had a really rough September and although he managed to get through game 3 relatively unscathed he gave up 9 hits and a walk in just 6 innings pitched. I think he was lucky to emerge with only 2 earned runs. Despite a wild outing by Harden in his 3rd game since coming off the DL, I think he should do well in this series.

See you again on Tuesday!

Frank Thomas

2006-05-26T15:01:00.000-07:00

Due to continued computer issues, I am still unable to post nor keep up with the A's as I'd like to. Funny though, what I am reading, seems to be speaking volumes for the character of Frank Thomas. The more I read, the more i feel that Frank was a good acquisition not just from the point of view of he's a great player, but also the things he seems to be doing with his team mates. He seems to be supportive, friendly, and with his experience, so stabilizing for the team. All I can say is go, Frank go. But please, when you go, walk gently.

I don't like the look of this

2006-05-10T23:30:00.000-07:00

Milton, Yes, Milton Bradley is on the DL. While the A's offense is showing signs of life (It's recharging... CLEAR!) Milton Bradley is off till nest tuesday with pain in his arm while batting left handed. Get well soon Milton.

4-24-2006: vs Texas Rangers

2006-04-24T20:40:00.000-07:00

Had to take care of jr. while my wife was at the store so I couldn't post any pre-game comments.

This game should have been a slugfest. Instead it was yet another 1 run squeaker. Both pitchers were extremely lucky to have exited the game relatively unscathed:

Blanton: 6 IP, 8 Hits, 1 BB, 1 HR
Millwood: 5 IP, 4 Hits, 6 BB

Oakland LOB (left on base): 12
Texas LOB: 10

Twice, in back to back innings, the A's loaded the bases and failed to score. Texas also failed to make headway with runners on base and in scoring position.

In fact, 4 out of 5 of the total runs scored were due to home runs. Thankfully, Swisher and Chavez stayed hot, with Swisher hitting his 9th HR of the season, a 2-run shot, and Chavez also hit a solo shot and walked 3 times.

Bradley went a disappointing 0 for 5 with 3 strikeouts, not his normal self, I guess. It was nice to see Ellis get a couple of hits, hopefully he can get himself back on track soon. Dan Johnson looked just desperate, every hit was just weak. He just seems to be trying too hard at this point.

The A's offense continues to sputter with only Chavez and Swisher making a contribution. For a breakdown of the team's offense, check this post on OPS over at Athletics Nation:

When only 4 regulars are above 700 in OPS you've got problems.

Blez also chimes in on the A's consistently slow Aprils over the years:

Regardless, it's more of the same so far from the A's. Thankfully, none of the division opponents are performing that much better. The A's are still only two games out at this early stage whereas in years past, they were already four or five back. It's also early to say the team is having a slow start, but it doesn't seem to be getting easier just yet. This week the A's begin a big series with AL West co-leader Texas in the nightmare of a ballpark known as Ameriquest Field, where the A's have been known to struggle in the past. And we all know where patterns have gotten the A's so far this year.
Inevitably, I tell myself, "Maybe I should just start watching in June?" Nah, because when the team eventually comes around I can say, see I knew it all along. The only problem is that one of these years, the team is going to bury itself so deep that it will never see the light of day again.

And Elephants in Oakland comments on the Kendall quandry:

At some point the rest of A's fandom will have to realize that the A's employ beyond a weak-hitting catcher behind the plate. They essentially employ a pitcher as their catcher. Surely no pitcher can hit 'as well' as Kendall. Then again, Kendall has the advantage of a few thousand more at-bats than the average National League pitcher who hits every few days.

The A's can place all the puff pieces they want about Kendall and his leadership and handling of pitchers, if they are so sold on his traits in that area, then make the guy the pitching coach. He doesn't get paid, and paid very well, to be a partially catcher. If he doesn't hit enough to keep his job, how does he keep his job?

Let's hope the A's offense can pull it together sooner rather than later and the bullpen stays strong. Hats off to The Duke for his first save of the season.

Daric Barton Watch

2006-04-23T21:18:00.000-07:00

Daric Barton ranks second in the league in total walks: 16 with an OBP of 0.462. Junior Spivey of Memphis is the leader with just 1 more walk than Barton. I know it's a ridiculously small sample size, but currently he is averaging 1 walk per 3 at bats.

4-23-2006: vs Angels

2006-04-23T12:53:00.000-07:00

The A's try to wrap things up on a positive note before heading on the road with Loaiza on the mound. Somehow the phrase "...with Loaiza on the mound..." does not instill confidence in me. But, with any luck, perhaps the A's abysmal offense will wake up today and score some runs. They can't rely on Swisher and Chavez forever. Eventually they too will slump.

Oakland:
Kotsay
Swisher
Chavez
Thomas
Bradley
Melhuse
Ellis
Johnson
Perez
(hey, did Macha read my last post? Ellis batting 7th, Kotsay leading off, it's about time he dropped Ellis down the batting order)

Angels:
Figgins
Cabrera
Guerrero
Anderson
Erstad
Izturis
Quinlan
Molina
Kennedy

I'm off to grab a bite to eat and watch the game. Loaiza's velocity was slightly up the last time he pitched, let's see if he has gotten his game back today, although I have my doubts.

Wrap:
I think this quote pretty much wraps up the A's:

Bases loaded, nobody out and the heart of the order coming up is an ideal situation for any offense -- any offense, that is, except for Oakland's lately.

The A's rank dead last in the majors for team batting average. The team OBP is a lowly 0.300 and their SLG a measly 0.392. Simply, they stink right now.

Despite Swisher homering again as well as Bradley, they blew it in a key bases loaded situation in the 4th.

Loaiza left quickly before even completing 4 innings. His speeds registered between 75-85 MPH. The official word from the A's is that Loaiza is injured:

Neither did A's starter Esteban Loaiza, who was forced to leave after just 3 2/3 innings with what the A's described as "spasms in his left trapezius," a muscle linking the shoulder to the neck.

Hmm. If I were the person reporting this news, I would put it in quotes too. I have never heard of a muscle called the trapezius and am especially surprised considering one of the key reasons we got Loaiza is because he is a consistent innings eater who consistently pitches +200 innings per season. It's especially strange considering that both Macha and Loaiza fully expect him to make his next start. Call me crazy, but I think it sure is a convenient excuse to pull Loaiza in favor of Saarloos today. At this point, I think it's just a matter of time before Saarloos is starting again, even if just temporarily.

Look for Loaiza to go the way of Beane's other mistakes in the offseason (think Redman, Rhodes, etc). The only question is what price will he pay to get someone to take Loaiza and his bloated contract off his hands.

4-22-2006: vs Angels - WRAP

2006-04-23T12:37:00.000-07:00

I didn't get a chance to post on the game yesterday because my parents were over to see their grandson and they did not leave until late last night.

The A's lost today in a close game, 5 to 4. But the 4 runs the A's scored were all due to a grand slam HR by Swisher (stay hot Swish) so were it not for the HR, possibly the score could have been 5-0.

Still, the A's did the right thing in the 9th, bringing in Frank Thomas as a pinch hitter who promptly got on base, bringing in Crosby as a pinch runner, and then leaving it up to......Dan Johnson ?!?!?!

Ok, that I just do not understand. On a good night, Johnson finally had a game with some hits, going 3 for 3 prior to the 9th inning. It's nice to see Johnson finally hitting. But you don't allow a struggling hitter who just had a decent game come in to save the day in the bottom of the 9th, especially if your argument was "he was having a good day.....".

And when is Macha going to learn to stop batting Ellis in the leadoff spot? 0 for 4 with a strikeout and a 0.175 BA is not the resume of a leadoff hitter. I have every confidence Ellis is going to pick things up, but until he does you leave him out of the leadoff spot. Hell, at this point I would feel more comfortable with Kendall back in the leadoff spot. At least you have chance of getting him on base.

Overall, offensively, this team just isn't cutting it. I know it's April, but April will be gone in a week, meaning it has been nearly a month and the batters are still not "warmed up". At least Chavez is having a career April and Swisher is hotter than a 26k run through Death Valley. Bradley overall is doing pretty good, although he has slumped lately, but other than these 3 I can not find much I like about the A's offense.

And don't get me started about the A's starting pitching. Aside from Rich Harden, not a single A's starter has an ERA below 5.00. In fact, only 3 out of 5 have an ERA below 6.00! The only silver lining to that is that at least Zito and Haren have a low WHIP of 1.13 each and respectable K/9 of 7.59 and 6.91 respectively, so I am crossing my fingers and hoping that they will slowly improve, as they have been doing.

4-21-2006: vs Angels

2006-04-21T18:08:00.000-07:00

For the first time this season, Oakland faces their perennial rival, the Los Angeles Angels of Disneyland. We'll see if mighty Rich Harden can keep Vlad and the other Angels' bats in check while the A's offense (what offense?) takes on John Lackey.

Lackey may have a higher ERA and fewer K's than Harden, but he has only walked 2 batters so far this season.

Will post the lineups and more details later.

Here's the lineups:
Oakland:
Ellis (0.188)
Kotsay (0.278)
Crosby (0.213)
Chavez (0.296)
Thomas (0.192)
Bradley (0.291)
Swisher (0.321)
Kendall (0.225)
Johnson (0.029)

I am convinced Macha has no clue how to create a lineup. Johnson should be in AAA, not Kielty, and Ellis has yet to prove himself in the leadoff spot, not to mention any other spot in the lineup. Crosby has no business in the number 3 spot, and I am perplexed as to why some sports writers picked him to win the MVP award. Give me a full uninjured season, impeccable defense, hit better than 0.250, get on base at a consistent 0.360 clip, and mash 30+ HR, and then maybe, just maybe, I might consider you a bonafide star - but still not MVP.

Anaheim:
Figgins (0.269)
Cabrera (0.311)
Guerrero (0.365)
Anderson (0.279)
Erstad (0.283)
Izturis (0.333)
Kotchman (0.176)
Mathis (0.148)
Kennedy (0.388)

Guerrero has a monstrous batting average but has also struck out 9 times with only 1 walk. I like Figgins, but with 13 strike outs and a 0.296 OBP, I also have to question why he is batting leadoff.

Anyways, I am off to watch the game, will update later.

Wrap:
What a game! Rich Harden pitched 8 innings, looking less than perfect, but still pretty good. He only struck out 2 and managed 12 ground outs - good job!

I was surprised at Lackey, who is a pretty good pitcher. He made up for his lack of walks tonight by issuing 7, that's 7, to the A's.

I've been critical of Swisher's plate discipline, but tonight he was on base 4 times with 3 walks and 1 HBP.

Chavez hit his 7th HR of the season and Kendall actually managed an extra base hit!

But what made this game so crazy was the way it ended. With runners on the corner, Calero struck out Mathis and threw to second to nail Quinlan. The throw wasn't in time, but Mathis got in the way, with Kendall's hand hitting Mathis. 3rd out, end of the game.

WTF? Kielty sent back down to AAA to make room for Gaudin

2006-04-21T17:59:00.000-07:00

You can find the info here and the official release here.

I don't get it. I know we need an extra pitcher in the bullpen with Street injured, but why send Kielty down? He has only appeared in 1 game so far.

I know our OF is crowded, but aren't there some other candidates for AAA Sacto? Don't we have a struggling 1B who has gone like 1 for 1,000 lately?

I like Dan Johnson, but this really isn't fair to Kielty. He posted solid, if not spectacular, numbers last season and has already proven himself at the major league level. If I were Kielty I would be pissed off and I would be starting to think why the front office has it in for me.

A little Concerning

2006-04-20T23:12:00.000-07:00

Seeing the last few games of the A's, I'm beginning to get a little worried. I know, I know, the season's young, and we have well over a hundred games to go yet, and let's face it, the A's are never consistently good out of the starting box, but from what I've seen of the A's in the past, is that they seem to just have a general slump, no one seems to do really well. This time, we have a serious lack of stability within the players. Zito is all over the place, allowing runs and then pitching perfect to near perfect. The Duke has great days then struggles. Crosby, Johnson, Kotsay, are all hitting well below par, yet the ones that you might expect that from, or at least understand they won't be hitting like the previous three are red hot. Swisher is hitting like mad, Bradley is really doing well, Kendall is consistent. My worry is will this turn on it's head? Will Swisher and Bradley go into a slump, then Bradley, then Zito starts to pitch well, but then Street loses it, Crosby, Johnson, and Kotsay come back and hit well again, and we lose them to the DL? I believe we have a good team, but it seems we are struggling a bit to get all the players to play well, all at the same time. But then, it's still April, We're 2 weeks into a very long season, so maybe I should just hold my breath and wait it out.

April 20, 2006: vs Detroit

2006-04-20T20:37:00.000-07:00

I couldn't post on the game cause I was at work. Sorry I don't have the kind of job where I can surf all day on the internet posting on my blogs.

Zito was all over the place today, a balk, 2 HBP, and throwing a lot of pitches high. However, he was also lucky, getting 3 double plays. Don't get the wrong idea; I really like Zito, but I have never thought he was an "Ace", he is a workhorse who has never missed a start or spent time on the DL and will consistently pitch +200 innings per season. Just don't expect another Cy Young, sub-3.00 ERA season, I just don't see it happening.

Pitching 7 innings and allowing only 1 earned run, the ball was turned over to the bullpen. Kennedy and Calero were great and then The Duke came in - and turned in a very un-Dukelike performance, walking 2 and allowing 3 earned runs, which allowed Detroit to take the lead in the 9th inning. Oakland managed to load the bases in the bottom of the ninth, but Melhuse struck out to end the game.

On a positive note, Chavez hit a double and had 2 walks, bringing his OBP up to a respectable 0.361. And Swisher, while not getting a hit, actually showed some plate discipline as well with 2 walks, bringing his walk total for the season to an unbelievable 3!!

Mark Ellis's average is back down below 0.200 and poor Dan Johnson went 0 for 3. If things don't change soon, he could find himself back in AAA Sacramento to get his groove back, which I am sure he doesn't want.

And Street has a sore muscle, so we might be without his services for a few days.

Elephants in Oakland players of the week

2006-04-19T19:29:00.000-07:00

Oakland: Milton Bradley and Dan Haren

Sacramento: Jeremy Brown, Doug Clark, and Chad Gaudin
(what a sick line from Jeremy Brown: 0.455 BA / 0.500 OBP / 0.909 SLG)

Midland: Kurt Suzuki, Shawn Kohn, and Brad Ziegler

Stockton: Richie Robnett and James Shull

Kane County: Frank Martinez and Bradley Davis

You can check the stats and read the entire thing here.

April 19, 2006: vs Detroit Tigers

2006-04-19T18:37:00.000-07:00

Huh. Here's something we haven't seen in awhile: Kendall in the leadoff spot.

Oakland:
C Kendall
2B Ellis
SS Crosby
DH Thomas
RF Bradley
CF Payton
1B Swisher
LF Kielty
3B Perez

Also interesting is Ellis batting second and Chavez getting the night off. Has Macha given up already to Rogers?

Lewis Wolff owns the A's, but Kenny Rogers owns the A's.

Blanton faces A's-killer Kenny Rogers

These are the quotes floating around the A's website and the general mood of the team seems to be that they just can't beat Rogers. So either Macha has given up already and decided to save his best for tomorrow's game, opting instead for Kielty and Perez to get some playing time, or he is gambling that the newcomers on the A's will have better luck against Rogers than the regulars.

Detroit's starting line up:
CF Granderson
2B Polanco
C Rodriguez
RF Ordonez
DH Gomez
1B Shelton
SS Guillen
LF Monroe
3B Inge

It'll be Joe Blanton on the mound vs Kenny Rogers. Will update more later.

Update:
Bottom of the first. Kendall managed to get on base thanks to a fielding error by Guillen. It was a weak-ass hit, so Kendall got lucky. Ellis just popped out to LF.

Blanton managed to get through the 1st inning allowing only 1 hit.

Inning over - Crosby grounded into a DP.

2nd Inning:
Blanton gave up a double and a run.

But Thomas came in and hit his 4th HR to even things up. Bradley and Payton both fly out. Swisher just singled.

I know everyone loves Swisher, he is hitting unbelievably well right now, but anyone else notice his 1 BB vs 14 SO?? What happened to his plate discipline?

Uh Oh:
Top of the 4th and Detroit has scored another run with runners on 1st and 3rd - and ZERO outs.

Come on, Blanton!

Conclusion: Blanton couldn't make it 5 innings, allowing 7 earned runs. Saarloos allowed another run. Errors cost the A's 3 more unearned runs.

Pretty pathetic game.

April 18, 2006: vs Detroit

2006-04-18T17:39:00.000-07:00

The A's face the Detroit Tigers for the first time this season in Oakland. Verlander with a 6.52 ERA will face off against the A's $21 million dollar man with the 11.42 ERA. I don't know, but something in my gut tells me Loaiza is one of Billy Beane's mistakes that will go the way of Rhodes or Redman after the season. Over the past several offseasons, Beane has always had at least 1 head scratching move that didn't pan out. It's just a matter of how much more patience Macha and Beane have.

We'll post the lineups later, but here's hoping Kotsay stays in the top spot. Ellis will have to get some at bats sooner rather than later, but the leadoff spot is not where I would like to see him getting his groove back.

Update:
Took them long enough, finally we have tonights lineups:

Oakland:
2B Mark Ellis (uh oh)
CF Mark Kotsay
SS Bobby Crosby
3B Eric Chavez
DH Frank Thomas
RF Milton Bradley
1B Nick Swisher
LF Jay Payton
C Adam Melhuse (yay!)

Detroit:
CF Granderson
2B Polanco
C Rodriguez
RF Ordonez
DH Thames
1B Shelton
SS Guillen
LF Monroe
3B Inge

Ok, it's the top of the first and already Loaiza has given up a 3B and a single and 1 earned run with ZERO outs. Loaiza's velocity is crap, I'm ready to have him pulled now. Yeah, I am getting tired of his lousy outings. He just isn't showing anything that impresses me.

Wrap:
Ok, before you jump over all over me about the "ready to pull him now" jibe, Loaiza really didn't pitch all that well. He got lucky. His velocity was still down, and Detroit was getting wood to ball - 10 of his outs were flyball outs. He allowed 6 hits and 3 earned runs in 6 innings, not exactly a recipe for success. On a bright note, he did manage to strike out 3 batters.

The A's offense belonged to Nick Swisher, who hit 2 HR, but let's not forget that it was canny at bat by Bradley with a walk that allowed the 2 run HR by Swisher. We should also give a big thank you to Detroit's defense which allowed one of the runs on the board.

Another bright note was Street's comeback, striking out 2 for the save. But those were some long at bats, Street, a lot of pitches were thrown. Still, he looked good out there.

I can't forget The Duke either, my favorite pitcher in the A's bullpen. Beautiful curveball tonight. And he still has a 0.00 ERA. Unbelievable.

What happened to the Moneyball draftees?

2006-04-16T19:51:00.000-07:00

The 2002 draft year for the Oakland A's was famously chronicled in Michael Lewis's bestselling book Moneyball. We all know that Joe Blanton and Nick Swisher, 2 of the famous 7 draft picks taken in the first round, are both on their way to successful major league careers with the Oakland A's. But what has happened to the other 5 Moneyball picks? Let's take a look at where they are today:

Jeremy Brown:
Arguably the most talked about draftee in Moneyball, Jeremy Brown is now playing with the Oakland A's AAA affiliate, the Sacramento Rivercats. In 14 at bats, he currently sports the following stat line:
0.421 BA, 0.478 OBP, 0.895 SLG, 3 BB, 4 SO, 3 HR

Brown has not lived up to some people's expectations, which partly has to do with the unfair hype and fame received from being a main subject in a bestselling book; some people just expect too much. While his BA has never been spectacular, he has shown a knack for getting on base and doesn't strike out too much. In 1288 minor league at bats, Jeremy Brown has 218 BB vs 260 SO to go along with a minor league career 0.382 OBP. That's a BB/SO ratio of 0.838.

Aside from the low BA, Brown has also had trouble hitting for power, spending 2 years at AA Midland with sub 0.400 SLG. Last season he seemed to turn things around, hitting 20 HR and 27 2B for a 0.487 SLG.

Brown is getting a bit old to be considered a prospect - he turns 27 this year - but if he can continue to get on base and keep the power numbers up, he should get a chance at a major league position. With Beane & Co.'s strategy of locking up top catching prospects in the past, Brown could be a marketable asset in one of Billy's famous trades. Another possible outcome is letting go of Melhuse and bringing in Jeremy Brown as the back up catcher for 2007. But there are plenty of other solid catchers in the A's farm system, so if Brown doesn't deliver he could easily be passed on the ladder.

John McCurdy:
John who? I doubt most people know who John McCurdy is, not to mention the fact that he was a first round draft pick in 2002. That's probably because McCurdy has languished in the Minor League system with pretty subpar numbers. In fact, he was demoted from AA Midland back down to A Stockton. Currently McCurdy sports a minor league career OPS of just 0.668, which does not translate well into future major league success.

In addition, McCurdy has shown a surprising lack of patience at the plate, walking only 99 times vs 343 strikeouts during his minor league career. That's a BB/SO ratio of only 0.289! It's looking like that final season at the University of Maryland where he batted 0.443/0.496/0.828 was just a fluke.

McCurdy turns 25 tomorrow and has never turned in a solid minor league season. Unless he can put together one hell of a season at single-A and double-AA ball this year, his professional baseball career could be over very quickly.

Stephen H. Obenchain:
This pitcher from the University of Evansville pitched well in both Vancouver and single-A ball until 2003 when he turned in a lackluster season. He continued to struggle in both A and AA ball through 2004-2005.

Currently, I can not find any record of him playing anywhere. I thought he was starting the season at AA Midland, but he isn't listed on their roster. Anyone out there with more info than me that can enlighten us? Did he give up on pro ball?

Ben Fritz:
Another first round pitching prospect who has bounced around the A's minor league system, spending time in both AA and A ball with limited success. Currently Fritz can be found pitching for the AA Midland Rockhounds. So far in 9.1 IP, he sports a 6.75 ERA with 3 BB and 6 SO.

I am bit puzzled by Fritz, because he seems like a pitcher with potential who just can't quite seem to put it together. Through 2005, he has pitched 255.1 innings with 215 SO and 109 BB, so he appears to be able to strike batters out, but along with that statline he has also allowed a whopping 258 hits for a minor league career WHIP of 1.44 and 9.09 H/9 (hits per 9 innings pitched).

While still listed as a starter for AA Midland, I wonder if a change to the bullpen might improve things a bit.....? Or not. Another prospect turning 25 this year, he needs to put up some solid numbers and advance to AAA Sacramento or he could find his options limited.

Mark Teahen:
The only other Moneyball draftee to make it to the majors outside of Joe Blanton and Nick Swisher, Teahan was involved in the 3-team Carlos Beltran trade that saw him going to Kansas City while Oakland ended up with Dotel.

Teahen did ok at AAA Omaha, but nothing spectacular, after going 0.275 / 0.383 / 0.391 at AAA Sacramento. In 2005, Teahen was called up to play 3B for Kansas City and hit a pedestrian 0.246 / 0.309 / 0.376 with 107 SO.

Teahen has started the season with Kansas City at 3B, but he needs to work on his plate discipline as he already has 11 SO in just 10 games. He needs to start showing the patience he had in college where he was 106 BB / 74 SO in 3 seasons at St. Mary's along with a high BA. He has shown the ability, at times, to hit for average, so it may be possible for Teahen to develop as a high BA/above average OBP hitter if he can cut back on the SO. Luckily he is only in his second full major league season and will only turn 25 this year, so he has several years to work on things before he hits his peak years. Of course, if he continues to hit the way he has during the month of April (0.235 / 0.270 / 0.382) then he might find himself back at AAA.

And there you have it. Out of 7 first round draft picks, 3 have made it to the major league level, with Joe Blanton and Nick Swisher both being called up in September 2004 to the Oakland A's and contending for the rookie of the year award in 2005. 3 out of 7 ain't bad at all, especially considering the major contributions both Blanton and Swisher have made and continue to make to the A's. Jeremy Brown, provided he can really perform at AAA Sacramento, has a good chance at making it on someone's major league roster at some point in the future. Whether he manages to make it as a starting or back up catcher depends on the team and his performance. McCurdy and missing-in-action Obenchain will most likely never make it at the major league level while Ben Fritz still has some life left in him.

In the future we will analyze the 2003-2005 first round draft picks as well.

April 16, 2006: vs Texas Rangers

2006-04-16T17:57:00.000-07:00

Late post, I won't bother with the lineup. What a disappointing game. I know it is still very early in the season and I know I shouldn't get down but first our starting pitching has been letting us down and today it was the bullpen.

What was largely a pitcher's duel through 8 innings fell apart in the top of the 9th when Street gave up 5 hits, a HR, and 4 earned runs. The A's managed to load the bases with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th only to have Swisher pop out to end the game.

The good news is that Haren was downright brilliant, pitching 8 solid innings, striking out 5, and allowing just 1 run. His ERA has been brought down to 5.40 thanks to his solid outing.

Chavez was unstoppable, going 4-for-4 with 2 doubles and all 3 of the A's RBIs. So far this April is going down as the best in Chavy's career:
0.313 BA, 0.358 OBP, 0.750 SLG, 1.108 OPS, 3 2B, 6 HR. He is also averaging more than 4 pitches per plate appearance. Let's just hope he doesn't slump in May. Could this be the first year Chavy sports a +0.900 OPS??
Crosby was also excellent at the plate, going 2-for-3 with a BB. Although he still has a lot of room for improvement, he is starting to show signs of life again.

Street proved that he was indeed mortal as his string of 21 straight saves came to an end. I don't know what happened to Street, but he looked lost out there. Sure, the umpire could have called a few close pitches better, but that's part of the game. He gave up a HR to Teixeira and was pulled from the game after giving up 4 runs. In fact, I can't remember Street EVER being pulled from a game, I think this was the first time I had ever seen it happen. And heck, it was even Huston Street bobblehead day - you don't pitch like that on bobblehead day!!

Texas, Take 2

2006-04-15T09:53:00.000-07:00

Ok, gearing up for Texas game 2, We have:

Padilla

Vs.

Harden

I'm predicting a bit of a pitcher's duel, with the edge to Harden slightly with a just under 3.0 ERA for Harden compared to Padilla's 3.0, with the batting force of the A's edging out the Rangers. Look for a tight game.

Update (SwizStick):
Oh. My.
Damn did I miss a good one. My wife and I were up in Sacramento visiting her sister on Saturday and so I missed the game. And I can't believe I did.

Harden, despite walking 5 and allowing 3 hits, managed to get through 7 innings with 8 strikeouts. But the big news happened in the bottom of the 6th inning, where the A's were trailing 4 to 2.

Up comes Chavez, Thomas, and Bradley, who each hit back-to-back-to-back homeruns on the first pitch each. Un-freakin'-believable.

Kennedy has been a nice surprise so far this season in the bullpen. Let's hope he can keep up the good work. I never worry about The Duke, and Street got his 3rd save.

Sigh... What next?

2006-04-15T07:10:00.000-07:00

Well, we're now below .500 for the season, and well, I'm a little depressed. After being completely shut out in the Minnesota Series, we've started the Texas series with a massive Goose egg. Via the A's website, it seems that we can't seem to get things straight.

In the first game against Texas, we lost. There, I've said it, I can admit it, we lost. Why? Well, let's have a look. 3 words is what I noticed. Zito, Zito, Zito. Now, I gotta admit, I'm a Zito fan, but his beginning isn't looking good. We seem to be seeing 2 sides to the lad, one that is referred to as "the dominant one", overshadowed at times by "the ineffective one", who seems to get a paycheck from the opposing team, whoever it may be. Reminiscent of opening day, he gave up a few runs in a shaky start of the 2nd inning. He hits one batter (the first one of the inning), walks another (the second of the inning(Don't worry there's no pattern emerging)), and then almost saves himself with 2 strikeouts. Then, a single, which starts off the 2 runs, which basically costs us the game. Maybe I'm being harsh, but this doesn't seem like the Zito I'm used to.

Here's what he's got to say about it: "That was the key at-bat of the game," Zito said. "You always have a tendency to get up for the big-name guys in the middle of the lineup, and I might have let up a little bit there. That's unacceptable. ... You have to attack everyone like it's Babe Ruth up there." (emphasis added)

Um.. Barry, "might have let up a little"? Swizstick and I were debating his first pitching of the season and his response was "Barry's problem is that he really doesn't take it seriously, he was like, um, yeah, it wasn't a good day, and yeah, I should maybe try a little harder" (not an exact quote). I can see what Swizstick means now, in referring to the last at bat that cost 2 runs, ignoring the fact you hit a batter and walked the next one really doesn't help your case, Barry. You remind me of the guy in Dodgeball who needs to get mad to play properly but can't. In fact, he sucks until the very last game when he sees his wife canoodling with some other guy, then he goes wild and kicks some serious tail. Maybe we should hire a guy to canoodle with Barry's squeeze, volunteers to throw some cash into the kitty? Watch this space for a Paypal donation bar real soon. Either way, Zito's inconsistencies are really something that he needs to work on, and hopefully he'll realize that before it's too late. Or maybe he just needs to take the motto of Dodgeball to heart.

Ok, on another note about the game, seems that Frank Thomas is doing ok, having chucked a ball to the fans in a gorgeous home run to left field. One of the things I love is his attitude towards batting. To quote "He was getting ahead of everybody, and I figured with a 5-0 lead, that's what he'd be trying to do with me," Thomas said. "And he did. First pitch, he gave me something to hit, and I hit it." You sure did Frank. Johnson also broke his slump in batting, and it seems that Bradley continues to be very capable and consistent.

Our offense seems to be doing well, Swisher's hot, Thomas is earning that paycheck(please, walk man, walk), and Bradley is doing very well, Johnson hit that T ball and we're scoring runs. But with deficits from our starting pitching we're still not going to win any games. It's too bad as well, as Thomas' attitude is so great: "We'll get hot here at some point, and when we do, we'll get back on a roll." I agree Thomas', and congratulations on hitting that 450th Homer.

April 14, 2006: vs Texas Rangers

2006-04-14T17:54:00.000-07:00

The A's are back in town to begin a series against the Rangers. Let's hope they can put that 3 game sweep in Minnesota behind them and let's also hope that the A's starting pitching behind Zito can rebound from their horrid performance over the last 3 games.

Tonight we'll get to see how Kevin Millwood performs with the Rangers. Here's tonight's lineups:

Oakland:
2B Ellis
CF Kotsay
SS Crosby
3B Chavez
DH Thomas
RF Bradley
LF Swisher
C Kendall
1B Johnson

Texas:
CF Matthews
SS Young
1B Teixeira
DH Nevin
3B Blalock
C Barajas
LF Wilkerson
RF DeRosa
2B Jimenez

Let the game begin!

Coliseum Authority and the A's agree to 3 year extension.

2006-04-14T17:50:00.000-07:00

As usual, new A's ballpark has the details:

The extension could potentially keep the A's in the Coliseum through 2013. The structure of the deal is such that the pre-existing deal, which was guaranteed through 2007 and had one-year options through 2010, now guarantees the A's stay through 2010 and push the options out to 2011-2013. Some of the finer points:
The lease allows the team to leave with 120 days notice without penalty if it moves to a 40,000-or-more capacity stadium in Alameda County.
Should the team leave the area, it would have to pay the remainder of its lease and a $250,000 penalty.
Whether the 2011-2013 years are optional or guaranteed has not yet been finalized.
The payments will be higher than in the pre-existing lease, totalling $4.7 million over the last five years. The A's payment for 2006 is only $500K.
On the surface this sounds like a nice reciprocal goodwill gesture, but as I wrote earlier on this matter, simply pushing the options out three more years mostly benefits the A's since they get a nice safety in case a new ballpark is beset with delays.

April 13, 2006: vs Minnesota Twins

2006-04-14T07:50:00.000-07:00

Ok, so my post is a day late, sorry. Day games are tough for me to cover because I am at work and don't really have time to update like I should. Also I got home last night with a splitting headache, so I skipped any blogging.

Score: Oakland 2, Minnesota 8

Blanton: 6 IP, 11 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 4 SO, 1 HR
A rough outing for Blanton, but c'mon: you didn't really expect him to pitch the same as he did against Seattle, did you? Especially this early in the season. I agree he got roughed up a bit, but am not concerned as he had such a stellar outing last week. Blanton is still very young, this is only his second year, so expect some ups and downs. It is nice to see Blanton throwing strikes, he has 10 SO now over 14 IP with a 1.14 WHIP. Hopefully he can throw some more strikes his next game while cutting back on the hits.

Swisher: 2 for 4 with a 2B
Swisher has been on fire lately and as usual, Macha is trying to take advantage of his hot bat. While the work ethic that Swisher has put into his batting, concentrating on going the other way, is a welcome sign, I doubt that he can keep up his torrid hitting streak. Eventually pitchers will adjust or Swisher will go through a slump, so don't get used to a 0.323 BA for too long. That being said, I think he will definitely improve over last year, I just don't know how long he will stay hot.

The Big Hurt was also 2 for 4 with a 2B, let's hope this is a sign he is coming out of his slumber.

Dan Johnson can't be this bad for so long. He is too good of a hitter to remain hitless forever. Macha should keep trying to fit him in somewhere in hopes of him getting a hit. My fear is that the longer he goes hitless, the more frustrated he will become which will make him even worse. Hang in there DJ, we're pulling for you.

And despite what many think of Kendall I think he is going to have a great year. Give him some time, he'll warm up and be back to hitting 0.300 again.

April 12, 2006: vs Minnesota Twins

2006-04-12T17:54:00.000-07:00

The A's are hoping Loaiza's horrid first start are behind him as they take the mound today against the Twins. Here are the lineups:

A's:
2B Ellis
CF Kotsay
SS Crosby
3B Chavez
RF Bradley
DH Payton
LF Swisher
1B Johnson
C Melhuse

Twins:
LF Stewart
2B Castillo
C Mauer
DH White, R
CF Hunter
1B Morneau
3B Batista
RF Kubel
SS Castro

Will update as the game progresses...

Bottom 3rd inning:
Well, looks like Loaiza has picked up right where he left off from his first start. He just gave up a big 3-run HR to Morneau after walking 2 batters in the inning. He followed that up by allowing a hit to Batista. His pitch count is already at 65.

Update: I missed the first 2 1/2 innings, looks like Swisher hit a double for 2 RBI and Melhuse followed up with a solid single RBI.

Top 4th inning:
Alrrrrrright! Swisher just tied up the game with a nice HR, his second of the season.
Although Silva has allowed 4 runs, same as Loaiza, he is throwing fewer pitches and also has 5 groundouts to Loaiza's 1.

Bottom 4th:
Joe Mauer just put the Twins ahead with a sacrifice fly. Dammit!

Bottom 5th:
I know it is only his second start of the season and I shouldn't lose patience, but Loaiza just gave up another HR, this time to Torii Hunter.
Loaiza now sports an 11.42 ERA and has given up 3 HR in just 8 2/3 innings pitched with only 1 strikeout. Oh, and he has a nice fat $21.375 million contract.
Update: Loaiza is out, Halsey is in.
Update: Halsey pitches a scoreless inning, but does give up a walk.

Top 6th:
Quick inning, but Swisher did hit a bullet of a HR, his 3rd and second tonight. The A's are still in this game......

Problems with Blogger, couldn't access the blog.
Calero took over from Halsey, didn't allow any runs.
Kennedy took over from Calero, gave up a single to Batista after striking out Morneau. Bottom of the 7th......

Game over. Once again, the Twins won by just 1 point, and once again a poor performance from Loaiza pretty much did the A's in. On the bright side, Swisher was 3 for 4, I believe, with 2 HR.

Tomorrow we will see if the A's can manage to leave Minnesota with some dignity. Hopefully Blanton can repeat his performance from last week.

Interview with Billy Owens, Director of Player Personnel

2006-04-12T13:02:00.000-07:00

Over at Athletics Nation. Read the whole thing. I enjoyed his comments on some of the A's current players:

On Eric Chavez:

Chavez plays an extremely tough position at Gold Glove-caliber so his 25-30
homers annually with 100 rbi's is special. I know we are all looking for that
super breakout year from Chavez but in reality what he's done so far in his
career is borderline historical.

On free swinger Jay Payton:

Jay Payton likes to swing the bat and he makes contact when he does so that
limits his walks. He is also a guy with some power. He hit 16 homers for us in
limited action. He hit 28 homers one year in Colorado. He plays very good
defense. Plus he is a tremendous character guy. He was hurt so much early in his
career coming up with the Mets that he still has a ZEST for the game of a
teenager. So in our position last year he was a no-brainer. We are elated
to have him whether he walks or not.

On the question of anyone in the minor league organization that we should keep our eyes on:

Justin Sellers is a guy that is currently under the radar that will not be
after this year. Slick fielder that is small but he can hit and play.

Fremont is closer to becoming the new home of the A's

2006-04-12T12:48:00.000-07:00

According to City Manager Fred Diaz:

Oakland A's co-owner Lew Wolff is close to completing negotiations with
Cisco Systems Inc. for a 143-acre parcel, a deal that could clear a major hurdle
in allowing the team to move to Fremont, City Manager Fred Diaz said.
"I
think we are the lead candidate for the new home of the A's," Diaz said. "If
there's a deal to make for both the A's and the city of Fremont, then we'll find
it and make that happen."
The Fremont city manager's comments came after
Wolff briefly met April 3 with Fremont City Council members and staffers,
including Diaz and Daren Fields, Fremont's economic development director.

According to this same article, which ran on the front page of today's Oakland Tribune:

Talks have progressed so far that only a few issues, such as
stadium naming rights, remainunresolved, Diaz said: "That is my
understanding through (talking with) Lew Wolff."

It remains to be seen whether Fremont will actually become a reality or not. Newballpark blog has much more here and here.

I know a lot of Oakland A's fans are hoping against hope that the A's stay in Oakland, but I have never seen that happening. The city of Oakland has far more pressing and important issues to deal with than worrying about finding a way to keep the A's in town. And most people are still stinging from the after effects of bringing Al Davis and his Raiders back to Oakland, which ruined a perfectly decent ballpark and screwed things up with local county and city leaders. No way a new ballpark could be built in Oakland without substantial city and county assistance and after the Raiders' deal no one is willing to put their political career on the line to really make it happen. Sure, they will pay some lip service and make the right noises and at least a gesture to try and keep the A's in town, but in reality nobody really wants to spend too much time and effort on it.

As long as the A's stay in the Bay Area, I am fine with that. The only problem with the Fremont location is transportation, which I am confident will be worked out in time.

April 11, 2006: vs. Minnesota Twins

2006-04-11T19:29:00.000-07:00

Sorry for the very late posting. Got home from work after the game started and my wife was using the laptop. Sure, I could have used the desktop, but then I wouldn't be able to watch the game on TV as the desktop is in another room.

Here are tonight's lineups:
Oakland A's:
2B Ellis
CF Kotsay
SS Crosby
3B Chavez
DH Thomas
RF Bradley
LF Payton
C Kendall
1B Swisher

Minnesota Twins:
LF Stewart
2B Castillo
C Mauer
DH R. White
CF Hunter
1B Morneau
3B Batista
RF Cuddyer
SS Castro

I was hoping to live blog the game, but looks like that isn't going to happen. Will update later with my thoughts on the game once it is over.

Update:
The game just ended, ultimately it was a pretty good game to watch, lots of solid hitting on both sides, but in the end 1 bad inning for Dan Haren was enough to lose the game.

Chavez hit 2 HR in the game and is looking really comfortable at the plate. This is in stark comparison to seasons before. For those keeping count, Chavez hit only 2 HR total in the month of April 2005. Chavez is a notorious slow starter:
April 2005 - 2 HR, 0.194 BA, 0.276 OBP, 0.312 SLG
April 2004 - 5 HR, 0.221 BA, 0.350 OBP, 0.419 SLG
As a matter of fact, Chavez has not hit more than 5 HR in April since 2002, when he hit 9.

Crosby hit his first HR of the season and is looking better at the plate since coming back into the lineup.

Ellis went from hot to cold, going 0 for 5 with 2 Ks. So far his line this season reads:
0.222 BA, 0.323 OBP, 0.259 SLG
I won't panic yet as it has only been 1 week and Ellis hit well against Seattle. I think it is just a matter of time.

I am definitely on the Bradley train. He already has 6 walks and is averaging 4.58 P/PA. Now if he could only get his power numbers up.

Thomas is still struggling at the plate - he is only batting 0.080. The only good news is his 2 hits so far were both for extra bases, 1 HR and 1 2B.

Haren had another rough start, but really it just boiled down to the 3rd inning where he gave up 6 runs. Despite giving up a HR to Morneau, he was relatively solid over the next 3 innings. A lot of pitches seemed to be left up and right in the middle of the plate. It wasn't until later in his outing that he seemed his normal self.

Saarloos looked much better than in his previous outings. Hopefully he has worked out the kinks in his system.

All in all, a good game although the A's came up short. Like I said yesterday, the Twins were just due.

Minnesota Preview 4-11-2006

2006-04-10T22:30:00.000-07:00

Tomorrow the A's begin a 3 games series against the talented Minnesota Twins. Don't let the fact that the Twins lost their last 4 games fool you: in my mind, that just means they are due, and this is a ball club that has continued to contend year after year on a limited budget, just like the A's.

Tomorrow Dan Haren faces off against Brad Radke. Both starters sport an ERA of 6.00 and were knocked around a bit their first start of the season, although Haren also managed to strike out 8 batters in his first start.

We'll wait and see what kind of lineup Macha produces once he is finished playing musical chairs with the players. With 4 hits over the past 2 games, including a 2B, hopefully the Mark Ellis of 2005 is back and will possibly bat leadoff, although I feel perfectly comfortable with Mark Kotsay there, a role he hit very well in back in 2004. I'm glad to see Crosby back in the lineup and hopefully he can produce in the number 3 spot. It would be nice if Frank Thomas were able to get locked in on these next 3 games.

Weekend round up

2006-04-10T22:09:00.000-07:00

Hello all, we were out of town for the weekend up in the mountains and had no access to a computer, internet, or even radio coverage for that matter, and therefore were unable to update the blog, not to mention the pain of baseball withdrawal.

And my, what a weekend we missed! :
4-7-2006 vs Seattle: Beat Seattle 5 to zero.
- A's pitchers worked 9 scoreless innings, allowing only 2 hits
- Joe Blanton pitched 8 full innings, striking out 6. (only starter on the A's staff to emerge unscathed from his first start of the season!)

4-8-2006 vs Seattle: Beat Seattle 3 to zero
- A's pitchers again worked 9 scoreless innings, allowing only 1 hit!
- Zito bounced back from his horrible first start to pitch 6 solid innings with 6 strikeouts.
- Kotsay hit his first HR of the season

4-9-2006 vs Seattle: Beat Seattle 6 to 4
- Harden pitched 7 strong innings, striking out 8. It should be noted that the lone run attributed to Harden was due to Duchscherer allowing one of his inherited runners to score in the 8th.
- Chavez hit is 3rd HR of the season.
- Street managed to save the game, working out of a troublesome 9th inning.

Until the 8th inning, it looked like the A's were going to shut out the Mariners for the third straight day.

I gotta give props to Joe Blanton, who managed to be the only A's starter to turn in a good first start. Good? It was damn brilliant. It was as if Blanton picked up right where he left off in 2005. Post All Star break 2005, Blanton was downright unhittable:
ERA 2.65, 102 IP, 69 K, 33 BB, WHIP 1.16, OpBA 0.226

But the real ace of the A's staff, and my personal favorite, is Rich Harden. Just how good is Rich Harden?

If a typical ace makes 35 starts in a season, here's a set of remarkable full-year numbers:
18-7 record, 3.03 ERA, 1.139 WHIP, 225.2 IP, 199 K
Those numbers belong to Oakland right-hander Rich Harden, in his last 35 regular-season starts dating back to July 20, 2004. He's a pitcher for whom many fantasy owners forecasted a breakout year, coming off a stunning 2005 in which he won 10 times in 19 starts, posting a 2.53 ERA and .201 opponents batting average. Remarkably, Harden did all that before he even reached his 25th birthday (which occurred last November).

'Nuff said.

Thoughts on the first 4 days

2006-04-07T08:57:00.000-07:00

Well, Esteban Loaiza continued the trend of A’s starters stumbling out of the gate as he gave up 5 runs in less than 5 innings. I know it is only the first week of the season and this is the first start of the season for each of our starters, but I certainly didn’t expect that every first start would be so bad. Just look at these numbers:

Barry Zito - 1 and 1/3 innings pitched:
47.25 ERA
4 Hits
4 Walks
3 Strikeouts
7 Earned Runs
1 HR
6.00 WHIP
0.500 Opponents BA
44.25 Pitches per Inning

Rich Harden – 5 and 2/3 innings pitched:
4.76 ERA
7 Hits
4 Walks
4 Strikeouts
3 Earned Runs
0 HR
1.94 WHIP
0.318 Opponents BA
18.18 Pitches per inning

Danny Haren – 6 innings pitched
6.00 ERA
7 Hits
0 Walks
8 Strikeouts
4 Earned Runs
2 HR
1.17 WHIP
0.292 Opponents BA
16.67 Pitches per inning

Esteban Loaiza – 4 and 2/3 innings pitched:
9.64 ERA
9 Hits
3 Walks
1 Strikeout
5 Earned Runs
1 HR
2.57 WHIP
0.409 Opponents BA
21 Pitches per inning

Those are some ugly starts. Again, I know this is a ridiculously low sample size and only the first start of the season for each of our starters, but if you had told me before the season started that the first week Zito would pitch less than 2 innings and give up 7 runs, Harden would give up 7 hits, walk 4, and allow 3 runs, Haren would give up 2 HR and allow 4 runs, and Loaiza wouldn’t make it past 5 innings, giving up 9 hits, 3 walks, and 5 runs, I would have told you you were crazy.

It would have been unreasonable to expect that every starter would be perfect their first start of the season, but to have all of them turning in terrible to sub-par performances is not much fun to watch.

Luckily our bullpen, for the most part, has been steady. Duchscherer, Calero, Kennedy, and Street have been stellar. Watching Halsey pitch on Monday was terrifying, but he turned in a fairly good performance last night. The only 2 bullpen pitchers who make me nervous right now are Saarloos and Witasick, and anyone who knows me knows I am big on Saarloos, his performance Monday was unsettling. I am convinced Witasick is our new “Fear Mecir”. He got lucky last night. His pitches were mostly up and his speed was down.

For once in his career, Chavez is off to a good start, Bradley had a big game the other day, The Big Hurt has turned in some big hits, Scutaro (Crosby who?) has been unbelievable, and Kotsay has been consistent. Unfortunately, Dan Johnson still hasn’t got a hit, Kendall has done nothing to justify his bloated salary, Payton looks lost at the plate, and will the 2005 Mark Ellis please stand up? It also can’t help that Macha has changed the batting order every night so far. I don’t believe you should rigidly stick to a batting order, but some consistency in a batter’s role is a good thing.

Anyways, just some thoughts and comments over the past 4 days. I am sure our starters will get much better, particularly Zito and Harden, but it is disappointing to see so many first starts go so badly.

The value of a strong bullpen

2006-04-06T16:08:00.000-07:00

Looking back at the first 3 games of this season and the fact that Zito couldn’t complete the second inning in the first game, Harden pitched very average through 5 and 2/3 innings, and Haren – whom I thought pitched the best – allowed 4 runs over 6 innings, it was clear to me that – barring that first game disaster – having a top class bullpen was the edge we needed to win over the Yankees.

Not that the Yankees’ bullpen is shabby by any means, on the contrary they have a solid bullpen with a star closer in Mariano Rivera and set up men Farnsworth and Myers. But the recurring theme over the offseason with the A’s was depth, depth, depth. We saw how critical a solid bench and strong bullpen is to a team riddled with injuries to key players in an almost-made-it 2005. One of the areas the A’s strengthened considerably was their bullpen, adding former starters such as Kirk Saarlos and Joe Kennedy who can easily pitch multiple innings or fill in for an injured starter should they go down. All-Star Justin Duchscherer, Jay Witasick, and Kiko Calero all serve as strong right handed setup men, with The Duke a capable substitute for Huston Street as closer if Street ever ended up on the DL. The luxury of having such a versatile and deep bullpen is that when your starters stumble out of the gate, the bullpen can quickly come in to save the day.

Today John Donovan at si.com via Yahoo! Sports had an article entitled “The Almighty Bullpen” and how choosing an effective bullpen can mean the difference:

In these first few weeks of the season, bullpens play a huge role. Since most
starters aren't yet ready to go more than six or seven innings, the teams with
strong bullpens have a real edge right now. (Of the 23 games played through
Tuesday, only 13 of the 46 starters went longer than six innings, and nobody
threw a complete game.)

For many teams, though, building a decent
bullpen seems to be little more than an afterthought. Lineups are taken care of
long before the relief is. Rotations are molded while the bullpen gets the
castoffs. Money is spent everywhere but for the pen -- closers being the notable
exception.
And if a team doesn't have its bullpen ready early -- if a team,
heaven forbid, doesn't have a reliable closer, a situation that at least a
half-dozen teams find themselves in right now -- it's often a weeks-long or
months-long process trying to get things straightened out. Sometimes it's longer
than that.
All the while, starters are forced to go further into games.
Innings pile up. Relievers are thrown into different, sometimes unaccustomed
roles. The bullpen gets overworked, leads disappear, games are lost. Tensions
mount. It can get ugly.

With the A’s beginning the season with a strong bullpen with well defined roles, they have an advantage over teams relying on starters still trying to get their groove from Spring Training whose bullpens lack depth and talent.

In his article, Mr. Donovan describes 10 bullpens that work:

Yankees - We'll still have to see whether Kyle Farnsworth can set up
games in New York. But Tanyon Sturtze has been
there, and former Red Sox reliever Mike Myers knows the drill.
Plus, no one's better than closer Mariano Rivera.

A's - Closer Huston
Street, last year's American League Rookie of the Year, is aided by a deep
pen that includes All-Star Justin Duchscherer, Kiko Calero and spot
starters Joe Kennedy and Kirk Saarloos.

Dodgers - If Eric Gagne is healthy, he can rack up a lot of saves this
year. Yhency Brazoban,
Gagne's main setup man, gets help from former Tampa Bay closer Danys Baez and former Rays
All-Star Lance
Carter.

Padres - Towers paid big money this winter to keep Hoffman as his closer.
Otsuka is gone (to the Rangers), but the Padres still have Linebrink and World
Baseball Classic closer Chan
Ho Park (who earned three saves for Korea in the tournament).

Astros - Closer Brad
Lidge lost it toward the end of 2005, but he's still among the best, and his
primary setup men -- Dan
Wheeler, Mike Gallo
and Chad Qualls --
return.

Angels - Their pen won the '02 World Series for them. Now, it's Francisco Rodriguez (45
saves in '05) with help from Hector Carrasco and the
Angels' usual suspects, Scot
Shields and Brendan
Donnelly.

Twins - Closer Joe
Nathan is set up by Juan
Rincon and Jesse
Crain (75 games each last season) and now gets an aid from live-armed lefty Francisco
Liriano.

Nationals - There's no telling whether Chad Cordero can do what he
did last year (47 saves), but he'll retain the aid of Gary Majewski (79 games,
2.93 ERA) and Joey
Eischen (57, 3.22 ERA).

Cardinals - Tony La Russa loves his bullpen more than anyone, but he has a
new one to work with this year. We'll see what La Russa does with Braden Looper and Ricardo Rincon. Jason Isringhausen (39
saves) returns, though.

Cubs - Ryan
Dempster (33 saves) is their man now. And with imports Scott Eyre (86 games with
the Giants) and Bobby Howry (79 with the Indians), this will be one tough
late-game team.

With a deep bench and bullpen, the A’s have the potential to go all the way.

They've earned their paychecks

2006-04-06T00:05:00.000-07:00

Well, we're now 2 (I'm in denial about the first game) games into the season, and the A's have done very well. After a great 2nd (OK, not that much denial, I'd rather not just talk about it) game first few innings, Harden got rattled a bit and let a few runs go by. Undaunted, the A's rallied back and tied the game to the bottom of the ninth, where Scutaro seemed to do a trademark "where in the world did he pull that maneuver from" fly to deep left which allowed the winning run home. What a game, and all the A's played very well.

As for game 3, after giving up 4 runs early in the game, they rallied back, and with Bradley seemingly dominating the night, tied it up in the 6th. After a round of pitching, the bottom of the 8th inning rolled up. Queue my favorite fantasy baseball pick, Milton Bradley, who proceeds to belt a triple and barely beat the throw at 3rd. Add Scutaro, who was facing an at bat with the bases loaded, again, pulls one out of nowhere and singles in another home. Then, Thomas, just misses by a mere foot the big yellow HR line in the stadium, and clears the bases, as he trotted to 2nd base(yes, trotted). From the evidence of the last 2 games, the team for the most part seems to be firing properly, and running well. Thomas was rather frustrated with his lackluster performance in his first at bats, and was visibly upset in the dugout after striking out twice. The grin on his face was visible from space after driving in those 3 runs, once again, making sure he earns that paycheck.

My top 3 players for the night are Bradley, Scutaro, and Thomas, Bradley for being purely solid, with some great defense and awe inspiring offense. Scutaro, with some impressive hitting, and one snag and throw in the 9th that was unreal, I've never seen a throw made in mid air facing the wrong way from nearly 3rd base nail a runner so close to first before. And Thomas, for simply being who he is, the big hurt, belting that ball the way he does. My not so hot pick for the night: Chavez. I didn't see particularly impressive play from him, and once again, he's doing that trademark Chavez pop out we all know about.

Comments: just 3, 1: We're doing well, I'm seeing a well organized, good group of guys out there. I'm happy so far. 2: Chavez, you're not a slugger, stop trying to be one, hit the ball like you're supposed to, not like you want to be. 3: Frank, for the love of all that is holy, please please please, SLOW DOWN. Every time I see you run I scream at the TV: take it easy, slow down big fella, it's ok, this isn't the iron man. Keep those ankles pure, my welders broken.

That's my wrap on the current A's games, Here's to a strong season, after a decent start.

Frank Thomas : The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

2006-02-06T22:53:00.000-08:00

As a follow up post to Jarhed's post below, I wanted to add my own thoughts to the Frank Thomas signing:

The Good:
- As Jarhed has already pointed out, Frank Thomas' career OPS is a mind-blowing 0.995, ranking him 10th in baseball history.- Frank Thomas has a career OBP of 0.427, putting him in at 11th in baseball history. That's better than Mickey Mantle, and only Bonds has a higher career OBP among active players.
- His career SLG is 0.568, good enough for 12th on the all time leaders list.
- Over the past 3 seasons Thomas has averaged 1 HR per 11.7 AB, meaning that if he actually put in a full season of 162 games, he would hit somewhere around 49 HR.
- In 16 seasons in the big leagues, Frank Thomas has had only 4 sub 0.900 OPS seasons. And the most recent was in 2002 when he ended up with an OPS of 0.833. Last season the A's team OPS was 0.737 and an OPS of 0.833 would have made Thomas the second best hitter on the A's behind Mark Ellis. Chavez last season sported an OPS of 0.797.

The Bad:
- Frank Thomas' BA over the past 3 seasons has been 0.252 compared to his career BA of 0.307. In fact, the last time he posted a +0.300 BA was in 2000. While I think BA is an overrated statistic, I do think this is cause for concern.
- BA 0.248 / OBP 0.382 / SLG 0.456 / OPS 0.838 : That's Thomas' 3 year average AWAY from Chicago. As I noted above, that still would have placed him high up on the A's list of hitters for 2005, but is way off his career line of 0.307 / 0.427 / 0.568.

The Ugly:
- As we all know too well, the big question with The Big Hurt is if we should apply his popular nickname to himself. 2 left ankle fractures have limited Thomas to a measly 108 games over the past 2 seasons. In fact, he has only played over 74 games twice in the past 5 seasons. The fact that the A's were able to sign Thomas for only $500,000 should be an indication of how risky a proposition Thomas is.

PECOTA projects the following for The Big Hurt in 2006:
353 PA / 0.237 BA / 0.342 OBP / 0.497 SLG / 46 BB / 80 K / 13 2B / 22 HR
VORP: 15.8RC: 57.7

I'm gonna go out on a limb and agree somewhat with the above. 353 PA works out to roughly 100 games give or take. As long as Thomas is honestly 100% opening day, I think 100 games is about right. My prediction as follows based on 100 games:

BA 0.263 - slightly above his 3 year average
OBP 0.374 - I think he should be able to come close to his 3 year average.
SLG 0.479 - While I think Thomas will do better than his 3 year average away from Chicago, I don't think he will approach the PECOTA level above in pitcher friendly Oakland.
HR 22 - in this Pecota and I agree

And the bottom line to all this : is Thomas worth it? Would you pay a player an incentive laden package worth possibly $3.1 Million for +20 HR with an OPS of 0.853 and an above average OBP? Gambling of course that he is healthy.

The A's Sign Heavy Hitter Frank Thomas

2006-01-27T14:15:00.000-08:00

Receiving news that has most likely come as rather a surprise for A's fans, Billy Beane has signed Frank Thomas as DH for the A's. Why this may be surprising is the fact that the A's were plagued with players on the DL for the year, and was sited as one of the major reasons why the A's struggled during last season. Or, as Beane puts it, "It turned out that we had one of the worst injury seasons we've had since I've been here and this is my 18th year." So, why would they sign Thomas, who in the past 2 years played a whopping total of 108 games, sidelined both times by a fracture in the left ankle. Ouch. However, let's look at his stats a little closer:

During that 108 games, he had a batting average of .245. Also during those games he had an OBP of .427, and scored 72 runs. That's impressive. Lets look at his OPS, which everyone seems to be talking about: .995, lets repeat that, .995. Yikes, higher than McGwire, Mantle, and DiMaggio, he rates 10th in baseball history. Wow, he's a DH dream come true. But what about those injuries? He's been plagued by injuries lately, and it seems we just dumped Durazo for injury related issues as well.

Here's what's been said about all the injury issues:
First off, he's going to be in DH mode, and his pay will be based on his performance, (half a mil starting pay) with extra bonuses (a total of $1.4 million in incentives for his left foot alone) for staying off the DL. Also bonuses for hitting a plate count of 550.
Also, Beane says "He has a very good chance of being ready in April. He believes he'll be ready in Spring Training, we're just taking a conservative approach mentally." (which means to me that Billy has his fingers crossed and is repeating 'please don't get hurt please don't get hurt' over and over in his head while they wrap Thomas in heavy foam padding and wheel him in a wheelchair from place to place.)
"Billy Beane's offseason reading has been nothing but medical reports. First, Milton Bradley's and now, Thomas." yeah, that's one mental health report, and one pack of left ankle X-rays. I'm sure that statement has one heavy ring of truth in it, and I am sure that Beane has been consulting numerous doctors regarding Thomas' health. Again, I am sure Beane has done his homework well.

What it seems to boil down to is that Beane was looking for the gold cap on a strong hitting lineup, and he was willing to gamble. I think he's found it with Thomas, and I am sure that Thomas will bring an enthusiasm for the team, and also be a driving force to help the A's go all the way in 2006 (something that I believe will quite possibly happen). Durazo's situation was slightly different, as he was more integral to the progress of the A's to the Playoffs, whereas Thomas is one of many strong hitters.

Here's hoping that Thomas has a great season with the A's and that he makes Beane's gamble pay off. If his ankle has healed then we've got a great hitter to finish our lineup, and it looks to be a great season overall. I've got some metal plate and a welder to help shore up that ankle if you want, Thomas, just give me a call.

Athletics Nation interviews Billy Beane

2006-01-20T20:08:00.000-08:00

Great interview, as always, from Blez at Athletics Natio n.

Part I here.
Part II here.
Part III here.

Some quick notes:
On the 2005 season: "...we achieved what we wanted to achieve. That was to become a younger team, and this next statement is kind of redundant from me, but whose future was brighter than its past."

On Dan Haren's performance: "I don't know that I've ever seen a young guy mature into a major league pitcher so quickly. "

Regarding Joe Blanton: "He has a linebacker's mentality on the mound. He's a quiet guy off the field, but an aggressive pitcher on the mound and the belief is that he took this year and I don't think any of us expected it and I think it's a real testament."

Why they took so many high school pitchers in the draft: "We just felt like there was a lot of value in the high school pitcher and that's why we drafted so many after that round. As far as their experience and our evaluation of that draft, I think we were very excited about the kids we got. As far as raw ability, this is as good a group of power arms as we've had in a long, long time. We've had a tendency of drafting the very polished college pitcher and we've had success doing that, we just didn't feel like those guys were out there when we were drafting this year. "

Why they acquired Esteban Loaiza: "He provides innings, he strikes guys out and since he's developed that cut fastball in the last couple of years he's been a completely different guy. We found out last year that not having depth in the rotation can be very difficult on our franchise."

Joking about Swisher at 1B as his "double agent": "If you know Nick, having someone to talk to is a prerequisite for his sanity. So having him at first base, he can work as a double agent for us. He's going to want to talk and he'll drive people nuts. They won't want to get to first base if he's there. (laughing)"

On nabbing Antonio Perez in the Bradley deal: " It was important. We really like Antonio. We like his bat. This is a young middle infielder and it was prerequisite of the deal."

On letting go of Hatteberg: "I just think so highly of him as a person as well as a baseball player. As far as the front office goes, Scott has the ability to do so much when he's done playing. He wants to keep playing and I think he will. But with a guy like Scott, he could probably come in and do anything he wanted to and we'd welcome him in with open arms."

Read the whole thing.

Updated the 2006 Roster link

2006-01-20T20:07:00.000-08:00

Check the link to the right for my own version of the unofficial 2006 roster. There are some names missing from the A's official website, but I am not counting them in just yet in case there are some last minute changes.

Numerous Athletics named to rosters in the World Baseball Classic

2006-01-20T19:37:00.000-08:00

I was checking out the rosters for the World Baseball Classic coming up in March and noticed a number of A's players are participating, although I was a bit surprised when I saw which countries they were playing for:

Kiko Calero - Puerto Rico
Eric Chavez - United States
Danny Haren - United States and Netherlands !? (I didn't know he or his parents were Dutch)
Esteban Loaiza - Mexico
Victor Moreno - Venezuela
Kirk Saarloos - Netherlands (Another Dutchman?)
Marco Scutaro - Italy and Venezuela
Huston Street - United States

And guess who else shows up on The Netherlands list? That's right, our very own Big Three power lefty, Mark Mulder!

I guess in Danny Haren and Marco Scutaro's case they are on both rosters in the hopes that if 1 team doesn't choose them the other will. From my understanding, the posted list is only a list of the players who have agreed to play if they are selected to play for their respective country's team. So what happens if someone like Danny Haren gets picked for both team's countries? He will have a big decision on his hands.

Half of me wants him to play for the Netherlands, Kirk Saarloos too. A lot of my friends and colleagues are rooting for the U.S., Dominican Republic, or Japan. Not one person I have spoken to have shown the slightest interest in The Netherlands. I have always liked the underdog and enjoyed rooting for them, so until The Netherlands plays the U.S., call me a fan of the Dutch! Go Saarloos, Haren, and Mulder! Not a bad rotation for the Dutch, eh?

Yes!! Cuba will play in The World Baseball Classic is going to happen after all!

2006-01-20T19:29:00.000-08:00

The Bush Administration has decided to let Cuba participate in the World Baseball Classic, thereby ensuring that the World Baseball Classic would be sanctioned by the International Baseball Federation. It also averted fears of Puerto Rico dropping out, who said they would not play if Cuba was not allowed to participate.

However, it appears that Cuban defectors will not be playing for team Cuba. Regardless, it should be exciting to watch, I for one can't wait for it to start.