Wednesday, August 25, 2004

Orioles vs A's 8-24-04

Great game yesterday. Eric Chavez went 2-4 with a HR and increased his HR total to 24 for the season. Based on current stats, Chavez hits a HR every 14.25 at bats. If he keeps up this pace, he should end the season with about 30-33 HR and right around 79-89 RBI.

Just for fun, if Chavez hadn't gotten that broken hand that kept him out for about 6 weeks, his HR total would be somewhere around 32 HR instead of 24 and his RBI total would also be in the mid to high 70's instead of the 50's. He would have ended up with a season something like 38-40 HR and just over 100 RBI.

But the thing that really impresses me is Chavy's patience. His OBP is off the charts :

Eric Chavez's career OBP - including the current season - is just 0.353
Eric Chavez has never had a season with an OBP higher than 0.355
For the current season, he is maintaining an OBP right around 0.400

Chavy has never had a season where his walk total was greater than his strikeout total. If he can keep walking like he has been so far this season, he will end up with a fat walk to strike ratio.

Why is this such a big deal ?

Eric Chavez has never had a season with an OPS greater than 0.878. Currently his OPS is 0.933 for this season and shows no signs of letting up, thanks to his above average OBP. In short, Chavez is slowly but surely developing into a prototypical Moneyballer.

We are still in 1st place, albeit by half a game. The only way to stay on top is to keep winning.


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