Grading the pitchers - Part I
Now that we've finished grading the hitters it's time to get on to the pitchers. The A's overall had a pretty good pitching staff, although it was a bit disappointing to see Blanton drop off so much from his stellar rookie year and Loaiza was a complete bust except for a brief flash of brilliance in August. The bullpen was rock steady anchored by the combination of Calero, Duchscherer, and Street at the end. Gaudin wins the sleeper performance of the year for coming out of nowhere, Witasick drops off the planet (who is Witasick? oh yeah, he's still with the A's, don't remember seeing him too much), and Zito had a pretty solid year for technically his last year in Oakland.
Dan Haren - SP - 223 IP / 4.12 ERA / 31 HR / 45 BB / 176 K / 1.21 WHIP
0.258 AVG / 7.10 K/9
Dan Haren pretty much ended up the year the same as last, albeit for a higher ERA. His WHIP, AVG, K/9, IP, even his win-loss record were eerily similar to 2005. Dan Haren so far has proven to be durable with his second +200 IP season. He strikes out batters on a higher than average rate, but gives up quite a few HR in the process as well. He doesn't allow too many baserunners with that WHIP and keeps hitters down to a 0.258 AVG. Haren is a solid starter and a vaulable addition to the A's staff. If he can improve with experience and find a way to keep balls from leaving the park, he could be a future ace.
Overall Grade: B+
Post-season notes: Haren pitched 2 games for an ERA of 4.09, the best out of the 5 starters.
Where he will be in 2007: The A's wisely locked Haren up under a long-term contract, he will be back.
Barry Zito - SP - 221 IP / 3.83 ERA / 27 HR / 99 BB / 151 K / 1.40 WHIP
0.257 AVG / 6.15 K/9
Zito's greatest quality is not his devastating curveball, his changeup, or any other pitch in his arsenal. His greatest quality is durability. Zito has yet to miss a start and has pitched +200 innings 6 years in a row. When Billy Beane shocked the baseball world by trading not just 1, but 2 of his vaunted Big Three pitchers, it was noted at the time that Zito was the only one of the three who had never been placed on the DL or missed a start, despite coming off his worst season in 2004.
While I like Zito and admire his durability, he has not been my favorite pitcher. Make no mistake, he is good, but he has also shown a frustrating streak of inconsistency, and this year was no different:
April - 5.93 ERA / 1.24 WHIP
May - 1.32 ERA / 1.24 WHIP
June - 3.95 ERA / 1.44 WHIP
July - 4.02 ERA / 1.39 WHIP
August - 3.40 ERA / 1.39 WHIP
September - 5.40 ERA / 1.74 WHIP
Looking at the game by game breakdowns it is even more pronounced. Zito can go out and give you 8-9 shutout innings, striking out 7-8 batters in barely 100 pitches. Or he can barely get through 6 innings with 120 pitches, 4-5 earned runs, and a boatload of walks. Sometimes he'll manage to string several solid performances together - other times it'll be a string of duds. But regardless, over a 162-game season, his better performances outweigh the bad.
Zito has always walked a lot of batters, but this year he walked a career high of 99. Like Haren, he too has given up a fair number of HR. Zito also completely fell apart at the end of the season, putting together a string of forgettable performances at the end of the season, but his saddest outing could also have been his last - a complete disaster in the ALCS against Detroit.Overall Grade: B+ (he'd get an A if he didn't falter at the end and showed a little more consistency)
Post-Season notes: Was stellar against Santana and the Twins, complete disaster against Detroit.
Where he will be in 2007: Headed for a high market (or pocket) team, the A's simply can not afford what he will fetch on the free agent market. Personally I think the NY Mets will grab him up, but other likely destinations include the Yankees, Dodgers, San Diego, possibly even Boston.
Overall Grade: B+ (he'd get an A if he didn't falter at the end and showed a little more consistency)
Post-Season notes: Was stellar against Santana and the Twins, complete disaster against Detroit.
Where he will be in 2007: Headed for a high market (or pocket) team, the A's simply can not afford what he will fetch on the free agent market. Personally I think the NY Mets will grab him up, but other likely destinations include the Yankees, Dodgers, San Diego, possibly even Boston.
Joe Blanton - SP - 194.1 IP / 4.82 ERA / 17 HR / 58 BB / 107 K / 1.54 WHIp
0.309 AVG / 4.96 K/9
Joe Blanton was a serious rookie of the year candidate when he posted a 3.53 ERA in his first full season in 2005 in 201.1 IP. He fell off considerably in 2006, watching his ERA explode along with an ungodly 1.54 WHIP. That's a lot of runners on base.
Where did all those extra runs and bloated ERA come from? Hits. In 2005 Blanton gave up 178 hits in 201.1 IP for an opponents batting AVG of only 0.236 and a WHIP of 1.22. This year Blanton gave up 241 hits in even fewer innings (194.1), allowing an opponents batting AVG of 0.309. Other than this obvious discrepancy, most of Blanton's other numbers look pretty close to what he did in 2005:
2005 - 23 HR / 67 BB / 116 K / 1.73 K/BB / 5.19 K/9
2006 - 17 HR / 58 BB / 107 K / 1.84 K/BB / 4.96 K/9
He managed to cut back some on his HR and BB totals and kept his K/9 pretty close.
Blanton is a young pitcher with plenty of talent who at times blew the game wide open. While I certainly didn't expect for Blanton to repeat his incredible performance from 2005, I also did not expect him to falter as much as he did. That being said, Blanton is definitely better than his 2006 performance indicated, although I think it would be stretching it to expect another 2005 out of him. I figure if he can cut back on the number of hits allowed and turn some those hits into strikeouts or simply outs while maintaining all his other numbers then he should be a solid performer in 2007. I am looking for a slightly +4.00 ERA / +/-1.30 WHIP / double digit win season for Blanton in 2007. Hope I'm right.
Overall Grade: C
Post-Season notes: Blanton's poor performance, particularly at the end of the season, doomed him to relief status in the playoffs where he pitched a measly 2 innings in relief.
Where he will be in 2007: With the A's starting rotation.
Esteban Loaiza - SP - 154.2 IP / 4.89 ERA / 17 HR / 40 BB / 97 K / 1.42 WHIP
0.288 AVG / 5.64 K/9
The Esteban Loaiza free-agent signing by Beane raised a lot of eyebrows and for good reason. The A's are not known for big free agent signings and Loaiza was getting a nice $7 million dollar a year contract for 3 years. While he had just completed a solid season with the Nationals and had won 21 games with a 2.90 ERA with the White Sox in 2003, the rest of his career was an up and down nightmare. Signed as a solid "innings-eater" who was supposedly durable and had a nice career BB/K ratio, Loaiza seemed fine in Spring Training only to fall flat on his face to an alarmed and quickly angered fan base.
Tossing your fastball in the low 80's when you normally hit the low-mid 90's enroute to an ERA of 8.35 with ZERO wins in April does not endear you to the fans as a new player. No one forgot his dismal performance either, even when he pitched an outstanding August amidst a bunch of sub-standard or downright terrible months:
April: 8.35 ERA
June: 4.91 ERA
July: 7.26 ERA
Aug: 1.48 ERA
Sept: 5.11 ERA
Take out that August, which was CLEARLY an anomaly, and you have a 2006 ERA above 6.00.
Loaiza's entire career is a bunch of sub-par performances with the occasional diamond in the rough - he has had only 2 full seasons with an ERA under 4.00 and his career WHIP is 1.42. I don't know what kind of numbers the A's were looking at when they decided to sign Loaiza, because everything I saw said this was a disaster in the making.
Overall Grade: F
Post-Season Notes: Loaiza showed that his April and July numbers were the norm with a 7.36 ERA and 3 HR given up in 11 IP.
Where he will be in 2007: Thanks to his awful A's debut, nobody will be interested in entertaining a trade for Loaiza, he is under a nice expensive contract for 2 more seasons with the A's so we are stuck with him. He'll be back, much to the detriment of A's fans everywhere.
Rich Harden - SP - 46.2 IP / 4.24 ERA / 5 HR / 26 BB / 49 K / 1.22 WHIP
0.191 AVG / 9.45 K/9
Harden seems intent on doing his best Kerry Wood/Mark Prior impression with his second DL-shortened season in a row. He spent most of the year on the DL, but when pitching was mostly lights-out. When pitching he struck out more than a batter per inning and kept opponents batting AVG below 0.200 for the first time in his career. Harden, more than anyone else on the A's staff, has the potential to be an elite starting pitcher with ACE written all over them. Unfortunately 2 injury-ridden seasons have brought his long-term durability and pitching role into question.
If Harden can stay conditioned during the off-season and manage to stay healthy for at least 150+ IP, he could easily be one of the best, if not THE best, starting pitchers in the league.
Overall Grade: D+ (I had to give him credit for outstanding pitching when he was healthy, short time that it was)
Post-Season Notes: Harden pitched 1 rocky post-season game for an ERA of 4.76 in 5.2 IP.
Where he will be in 2007: Back in the A's starting rotation, hopefully for a nice, healthy season.
To be continued....bullpen next.
Dan Haren - SP - 223 IP / 4.12 ERA / 31 HR / 45 BB / 176 K / 1.21 WHIP
0.258 AVG / 7.10 K/9
Dan Haren pretty much ended up the year the same as last, albeit for a higher ERA. His WHIP, AVG, K/9, IP, even his win-loss record were eerily similar to 2005. Dan Haren so far has proven to be durable with his second +200 IP season. He strikes out batters on a higher than average rate, but gives up quite a few HR in the process as well. He doesn't allow too many baserunners with that WHIP and keeps hitters down to a 0.258 AVG. Haren is a solid starter and a vaulable addition to the A's staff. If he can improve with experience and find a way to keep balls from leaving the park, he could be a future ace.
Overall Grade: B+
Post-season notes: Haren pitched 2 games for an ERA of 4.09, the best out of the 5 starters.
Where he will be in 2007: The A's wisely locked Haren up under a long-term contract, he will be back.
Barry Zito - SP - 221 IP / 3.83 ERA / 27 HR / 99 BB / 151 K / 1.40 WHIP
0.257 AVG / 6.15 K/9
Zito's greatest quality is not his devastating curveball, his changeup, or any other pitch in his arsenal. His greatest quality is durability. Zito has yet to miss a start and has pitched +200 innings 6 years in a row. When Billy Beane shocked the baseball world by trading not just 1, but 2 of his vaunted Big Three pitchers, it was noted at the time that Zito was the only one of the three who had never been placed on the DL or missed a start, despite coming off his worst season in 2004.
While I like Zito and admire his durability, he has not been my favorite pitcher. Make no mistake, he is good, but he has also shown a frustrating streak of inconsistency, and this year was no different:
April - 5.93 ERA / 1.24 WHIP
May - 1.32 ERA / 1.24 WHIP
June - 3.95 ERA / 1.44 WHIP
July - 4.02 ERA / 1.39 WHIP
August - 3.40 ERA / 1.39 WHIP
September - 5.40 ERA / 1.74 WHIP
Looking at the game by game breakdowns it is even more pronounced. Zito can go out and give you 8-9 shutout innings, striking out 7-8 batters in barely 100 pitches. Or he can barely get through 6 innings with 120 pitches, 4-5 earned runs, and a boatload of walks. Sometimes he'll manage to string several solid performances together - other times it'll be a string of duds. But regardless, over a 162-game season, his better performances outweigh the bad.
Zito has always walked a lot of batters, but this year he walked a career high of 99. Like Haren, he too has given up a fair number of HR. Zito also completely fell apart at the end of the season, putting together a string of forgettable performances at the end of the season, but his saddest outing could also have been his last - a complete disaster in the ALCS against Detroit.Overall Grade: B+ (he'd get an A if he didn't falter at the end and showed a little more consistency)
Post-Season notes: Was stellar against Santana and the Twins, complete disaster against Detroit.
Where he will be in 2007: Headed for a high market (or pocket) team, the A's simply can not afford what he will fetch on the free agent market. Personally I think the NY Mets will grab him up, but other likely destinations include the Yankees, Dodgers, San Diego, possibly even Boston.
Overall Grade: B+ (he'd get an A if he didn't falter at the end and showed a little more consistency)
Post-Season notes: Was stellar against Santana and the Twins, complete disaster against Detroit.
Where he will be in 2007: Headed for a high market (or pocket) team, the A's simply can not afford what he will fetch on the free agent market. Personally I think the NY Mets will grab him up, but other likely destinations include the Yankees, Dodgers, San Diego, possibly even Boston.
Joe Blanton - SP - 194.1 IP / 4.82 ERA / 17 HR / 58 BB / 107 K / 1.54 WHIp
0.309 AVG / 4.96 K/9
Joe Blanton was a serious rookie of the year candidate when he posted a 3.53 ERA in his first full season in 2005 in 201.1 IP. He fell off considerably in 2006, watching his ERA explode along with an ungodly 1.54 WHIP. That's a lot of runners on base.
Where did all those extra runs and bloated ERA come from? Hits. In 2005 Blanton gave up 178 hits in 201.1 IP for an opponents batting AVG of only 0.236 and a WHIP of 1.22. This year Blanton gave up 241 hits in even fewer innings (194.1), allowing an opponents batting AVG of 0.309. Other than this obvious discrepancy, most of Blanton's other numbers look pretty close to what he did in 2005:
2005 - 23 HR / 67 BB / 116 K / 1.73 K/BB / 5.19 K/9
2006 - 17 HR / 58 BB / 107 K / 1.84 K/BB / 4.96 K/9
He managed to cut back some on his HR and BB totals and kept his K/9 pretty close.
Blanton is a young pitcher with plenty of talent who at times blew the game wide open. While I certainly didn't expect for Blanton to repeat his incredible performance from 2005, I also did not expect him to falter as much as he did. That being said, Blanton is definitely better than his 2006 performance indicated, although I think it would be stretching it to expect another 2005 out of him. I figure if he can cut back on the number of hits allowed and turn some those hits into strikeouts or simply outs while maintaining all his other numbers then he should be a solid performer in 2007. I am looking for a slightly +4.00 ERA / +/-1.30 WHIP / double digit win season for Blanton in 2007. Hope I'm right.
Overall Grade: C
Post-Season notes: Blanton's poor performance, particularly at the end of the season, doomed him to relief status in the playoffs where he pitched a measly 2 innings in relief.
Where he will be in 2007: With the A's starting rotation.
Esteban Loaiza - SP - 154.2 IP / 4.89 ERA / 17 HR / 40 BB / 97 K / 1.42 WHIP
0.288 AVG / 5.64 K/9
The Esteban Loaiza free-agent signing by Beane raised a lot of eyebrows and for good reason. The A's are not known for big free agent signings and Loaiza was getting a nice $7 million dollar a year contract for 3 years. While he had just completed a solid season with the Nationals and had won 21 games with a 2.90 ERA with the White Sox in 2003, the rest of his career was an up and down nightmare. Signed as a solid "innings-eater" who was supposedly durable and had a nice career BB/K ratio, Loaiza seemed fine in Spring Training only to fall flat on his face to an alarmed and quickly angered fan base.
Tossing your fastball in the low 80's when you normally hit the low-mid 90's enroute to an ERA of 8.35 with ZERO wins in April does not endear you to the fans as a new player. No one forgot his dismal performance either, even when he pitched an outstanding August amidst a bunch of sub-standard or downright terrible months:
April: 8.35 ERA
June: 4.91 ERA
July: 7.26 ERA
Aug: 1.48 ERA
Sept: 5.11 ERA
Take out that August, which was CLEARLY an anomaly, and you have a 2006 ERA above 6.00.
Loaiza's entire career is a bunch of sub-par performances with the occasional diamond in the rough - he has had only 2 full seasons with an ERA under 4.00 and his career WHIP is 1.42. I don't know what kind of numbers the A's were looking at when they decided to sign Loaiza, because everything I saw said this was a disaster in the making.
Overall Grade: F
Post-Season Notes: Loaiza showed that his April and July numbers were the norm with a 7.36 ERA and 3 HR given up in 11 IP.
Where he will be in 2007: Thanks to his awful A's debut, nobody will be interested in entertaining a trade for Loaiza, he is under a nice expensive contract for 2 more seasons with the A's so we are stuck with him. He'll be back, much to the detriment of A's fans everywhere.
Rich Harden - SP - 46.2 IP / 4.24 ERA / 5 HR / 26 BB / 49 K / 1.22 WHIP
0.191 AVG / 9.45 K/9
Harden seems intent on doing his best Kerry Wood/Mark Prior impression with his second DL-shortened season in a row. He spent most of the year on the DL, but when pitching was mostly lights-out. When pitching he struck out more than a batter per inning and kept opponents batting AVG below 0.200 for the first time in his career. Harden, more than anyone else on the A's staff, has the potential to be an elite starting pitcher with ACE written all over them. Unfortunately 2 injury-ridden seasons have brought his long-term durability and pitching role into question.
If Harden can stay conditioned during the off-season and manage to stay healthy for at least 150+ IP, he could easily be one of the best, if not THE best, starting pitchers in the league.
Overall Grade: D+ (I had to give him credit for outstanding pitching when he was healthy, short time that it was)
Post-Season Notes: Harden pitched 1 rocky post-season game for an ERA of 4.76 in 5.2 IP.
Where he will be in 2007: Back in the A's starting rotation, hopefully for a nice, healthy season.
To be continued....bullpen next.
posted by The Smithy at 7:38 PM
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