Thursday, January 25, 2007

Another way to look at pitching

I can't believe I missed this earlier at The Hardball Times, but J.P. McIntyre has broken down the starting rotations of all the teams, separated by league, in terms of their starting rotation's Net Win Share Value. For those of you who don't know what Net Win Share Value is:

Let's look at how teams did in 2006 in terms of payroll efficiency with their starters. I am using Net Win Shares Value, created by Dave Studeman. To paraphrase Dave's definition, Net Win Shares Value essentially estimates the "expected" production from a player based on how he was signed (as a free agent, arbitration-eligible or not eligible for arbitration) and how much he was paid, then compares that to how he actually did. The difference is multiplied by the average amount teams paid for each Win Share Above Bench last year. If the number is positive, the player was a relatively good deal for the team; if not, not.

Not surprisingly, number 1 on the list in the AL is the Detroit Tigers, with a $24.9 million Net Win Share Value based on their starting pitchers. As McIntyre explains:

The Detroit Tigers had the most cost-efficient rotation by a considerable margin because not only did their starters pitch well, but most were signed to inexpensive contracts.
             Net WS Value      GS
Verlander 8,003,000 30
Robertson 6,281,000 32
Bonderman 4,636,000 34
Rogers 3,282,000 33
Miner 1,378,000 16
Ledezma 1,362,000 7
Maroth -145,000 9
But the team that came in second in the AL? You guessed it, our 
beloved A's with a $16.9 million Net Win Share Value.

The White Sox had no starter who truly shined, even though management was
writing some large checks. A more efficient team was the Oakland A's:

             Net WS Value      GS
Haren 7,062,000 34
Blanton 4,332,000 31
Saarloos 2,096,000 16
Zito 1,087,000 34
Harden 1,101,000 9
Loaiza 988,000 26
Windsor -585,000 3

Because Harden was not receiving a large salary, his injury did not hurt the A's financially, unlike Mark Mulder of St. Louis, who had a -$9.9 million Net WS Value. Oakland general manager Billy Beane's market philosophy allows him to get a high yield on the money the A's pay their starters.
I think this is an interesting way to look at starting rotations in terms of the value their pitchers bring to the team. Thanks to the clever minds at THT for doing this nice analysis.


Post a Comment

<< Home